I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that the actual economists in Africa have done the math here.
What an amazing counterpoint you've mustered there.
And I keep saying it: one side is forced to pay their debts to the other. It's absolutely hilarious that you think the side being forced to pay is the side that's actually showing strength. When a schoolyard bully takes your lunch money, it's actually you showing strength by giving it. 😂
Again, you can't just magic industry into existence. It takes time to create it. India is not a replacement for China, and it has a long way to go before it can do what China does. Meanwhile, China has no problems expanding because it's directly investing into countries in BRI and BRICS.
I don't see why Africa would invest in outdated technology when they can have high speed rail. There's literally zero rationale to do that.
Again, China can find new countries to export to, and that is literally the whole idea behind BRICS and BRI where China is actively investing into helping countries develop and then sell them their technology. If you look at the breakdown of Chinese exports, it's pretty clear that US and EU aren't the major market anymore. The risks are not symmetric. For China, it would be a pain, but wouldn't be existential. For US and EU it would be a crisis.
US weapons are steamrolling the Russian army, without any US solders operating them.
You must be living in an alternate reality. All US weapons have failed miserably in Ukraine, and Ukraine has failed to gain any ground in over 4 weeks of their offensive. This is well documented all over western media. Just a couple of recent examples for you
Do you truly believe the US couldn’t roll through Russia the way Wagner did two weeks ago with only 25,000 troops?
No sane person believe that US could roll through Russia.
Wagner is/was proud of the fact they used western arms and not Russian or Chinese.
Wagner is a tiny portion of Russian military force, if you don't even understand what role wagner plays what else is there to say really.
To say the US couldn’t take Russia is naive at best, downright false at worst.
You really gotta stop guzzling propaganda. Not a single person in US military shares this insane view with you. 😂
Your hypothetical disregards the existence of NATO and Indo-Pacific alliances. Article 5: An attack on one is an attack on all.
First of all, article 5 doesn't say what you think it says. It says that countries have to provide support at their discretion which can be basically anything. Second, NATO is literally running out of ammunition right now and lacks the industrial base to make more.
US aims go from making 14,000 155mm shells each month to 20,000 by the spring and 40,000 by 2025. https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/12/05/army-plans-dramatic-ammo-production-boost-as-ukraine-drains-stocks/
Meanwhile, Russia was producing over a million shells a year long before the war started, it's vastly more now
This is just one example of why US has absolutely no hope of fighting Russia. I'm not even going to go into the fact that Russia has the biggest nuclear arsenal and nuclear hypersonic weapons US has no defense against.
You should also read up on what US military planners say about a war with China. Here's what the Pentagon had to say recently about it https://archive.ph/YOV9X
But let’s dig deeper: the US has the most aircraft carriers in world
Oh you mean obsolete boats that can be easily destroyed by modern hypersonic weapons US has no defence against?
I recommend trying engaging with reality https://asiatimes.com/2023/05/war-game-china-hypersonics-sink-us-carrier-every-time/
No, what has actually happened is that there are two world superpowers instead of one, each ruling their part of the globe, each dependant on the other to not drop the facade so they have an “enemy” to blame at home. To say either single country could take on the other is probably the worst argument you tried to make
What's actually happening is that US empire is crumbling, and the cost of keeping the grip on the empire is now exceeding the material returns US gets back from the colonies. This is leading to an economic collapse in US domestically that's currently unfolding.
China doesn't need to take on US directly, and it's pretty clear that China's plan is to just wait for US to keep losing power due to its internal contradictions. Time is on China's side. However, if US did try to start a war with China, the consequences for US would be absolutely disastrous.
Because that was the original basis for the relationship between the west and China. I'm not sure what claims you think I made that don't exist.
I'm going to say the same thing I've already said repeatedly which you just can't seem to understand. US is not able to coerce China while China is able to coerce US. That's literally what we're seeing. The balance of power here is favoring China. If US can't make China pay what it considers to be the debt while still paying debt that China demands that's US showing itself to be weak.
You should take a look at the sheer amount of commodities US imports from China, these can't be replaced overnight. Meanwhile, India is simply not able to do what China does. The whole talk of moving manufacturing to India comes from sheer ignorance of what it takes to do the kind of manufacturing China does. Companies are already giving up on India as the two links I gave in the other thread show.
US economy was in shock when a single ship got stuck in Suez Canal, that's how fragile it is. If China cut US off, then most necessities of life would disappear overnight, and there wouldn't be any readily available replacements US could source quickly. Meanwhile, China is far less dependent on US than the other way around. China doesn't get anything essential from US, and trade imbalance massively favors China. China can absolutely survive without US.
US has no military power over most of Eurasia or Middle East at this point, and it's not even able to compete with Russia militarily as it turns out. China's industrial power absolutely dwarfs both US and Russia, so US would have absolutely no hope if it ever came to a war with China. You don't have to take it from me either, here's Pentagon freaking out over this https://archive.ph/YOV9X
If China pulled out of the US, the pressure would be on US soil to bring prices of commodities down.
You can't just make industry appear out of thin air in the real world. It takes years to build factories, train workers, and establish supply chains. You can't just print money and make these things magically appear.
China is a cheap source of labor to the US, but so is India.
That's wrong again. China is not a cheap source of labour, it's a technological power with well ironed out supply chains and skilled workers. India isn't anywhere close in terms of technological development. Here are just a couple of recent examples of that
US wouldn't cease to exist, but it would have a massive economic crash and it would never recover to its current level of power.
Taiwan is likewise entirely dependent on mainland China economically, and Chinese military could go in and put an end to the farce any time as well. They're choosing to let the situation be. It's basically exactly the same situation.
😂