Ukraine's war effort looks fucked to the point of collapse. Avdiivka might turn into a shut cauldron any day now. Russia looks like it could break through at various points along the front. Ukraine has very serious personell problems, leadership problems and ammo shortages.
Maybe Russia will run out of steam at some point, but right now the Ukrainian collapse is accelerating.
I mean look at this (WP, archive):
Oleksandr, a battalion commander, said the companies in his unit on average are staffed at about 35 percent of what they should be. A second battalion commander from an assault brigade said that is typical for units that carry out combat tasks.
Asked how many new soldiers he has received — not including those who have returned after injuries — Oleksandr said his battalion was sent five people over the past five months. He and other commanders said the new recruits tend to be poorly trained, creating a dilemma about whether to send someone immediately onto the battlefield because reinforcements are needed so badly, even though they are likely to get injured or killed because they lack the know-how.
“The basis of everything is the lack of people,” Oleksandr said.
“Where are we going? I don’t know,” he added. “There’s no positive outlook. Absolutely none. It’s going to end in a lot of death, a global failure. And most likely, I think, the front will collapse somewhere like it did for the enemy in 2022, in the Kharkiv region.”
We have wasps.