mozz

Arguments can be wrong in multiple ways

“The polls are not reliable, but even if they were, they don’t show what you say they show” is not two contradictory statements that invalidate one another

(There’s a whole separate issue that confounding factors make the polls bad metrics of the overall reality, but you can still look at relative difference within the same poll from week to week or candidate to candidate and it’s useful to a certain extent)

Pretty sure I have made both of those points multiple times in the last few days when talking about polling

I can’t even make enough sense of this to disagree with it

?

The duopoly is the result of FPTP + Hotelling’s Law, as far as I can tell. That’s absolutely something worth worrying about and solving (including the resulting “strategic” efforts by the DNC to kneecap anyone who tries to pull them to the left), but you are just asserting based on nothing that they are mutually colluding to do it when there’s no reason at all to think that as far as I can see.

Not really dude

The idea that “who doesn’t like Biden” is uncorrelated with “who answers the phone to random numbers”, or that who does answer the phone and answer the questions that suddenly emerge from the other side is perfectly correlated with who will show up and vote in November, both seem unproven to me

You're not wrong. It is however notable that the NYT's editorial stance on Biden's performance and place in the Democratic strategy was a monolith, and one that was misaligned with both the voters' opinions and the objective reality, up until a couple of days ago possibly in my opinion because word of some level of lost subscribers started reaching back up to the monolith's office.

America will be left holding exactly as much shit as they fail to get rid of in November

Vote

So let’s recap

Biden BOMBED the debate

NYT printed a bunch of stories (like, more than they have and more frequently than on any other single topic for years including the insurrection) about how this was an objective disaster for Biden and there was no possible way he could win now

Polls came out, showing anywhere from 0 to 2 points of loss of support even after an absolutely historic fuckup

Polls investigating why that is, for some reason, are kind of hard to find, our media preferring to run weird slanted polls where they ask more or less “Why did Biden fuck up so bad and do you really want to continue to support him now?”. But the few of them that can be found investigating the more data driven issue report voters saying, more or less, that sure Biden is old but his opponent is an angry malicious liar who is an objective catastrophe for the country and that’s more important to me

So then after all that, the NYT runs a story today saying here’s what the Democrats don’t understand, the voters are influenced by style, not substance. If the Democrats want to stop being wrong about everything and losing they need to understand that.

Do I have my summary correct?

Nothing good is in store for her

I honestly kind of feel bad for her

But that is the problem with being a bullshit-person; you're always at the mercy of whatever bullshit is fashionable at the time, and if it changes, you may have 0 options, absolutely none at all.

Guys - the fuckin monster is out. It doesn’t matter what the RNC wants, or Fox News corporate leadership, or soft, misshapen supervillains like Mitch McConnell and Ted Cruz. Your time is ending. There are MILLIONS of people who just want to take control and kill Democrats and anyone else in Washington who stands in their way. They have their own insane news networks and social media and their own organization and funding now, presumably a lot of it not from the US.

You can stand up in your little control center and give orders about what they’re supposed to be doing. Some of the ones who are aligned with you may even pay you some level of attention, but you can feel your relevance is diminishing. Soon enough, the movement will turn on you, too, in a very very real way, if you don’t get on board with it.

Like the man said: You called down the thunder, well now you got it.

Honestly man it makes perfect sense. We gave the Republicans guns and got them all amped up on violent lunacy and now it’s turned up all the way to 11; they shouldn’t be allowed to have guns anywhere NEAR the convention center, in a sensible world. However we do not live in a sensible world and whose fault is literally 100% of all of that

I SAID WHOSE FAULT IS IT EVERS

YOU FUCKIN HYPOCRITE

Driving into the intersection when the light is green, even though you can’t get all the way through, and then when the light changes and you’re in everyone’s way delaying 30 people by 2 minutes because you wanted to be able to wait stationary in one location instead of a different location… looking helpless like what do you mean, it’s not MY fault, there’s a car in my way I can’t go anywhere

I for serious fantasize about just plowing into the side of the person’s car and then getting out like what do you mean, it’s not MY fault, my light was green means I have the right of way and it’s your responsibility not to be in my way, you fuckin toad, do better next time, anyway here’s my insurance information