mozz

I will give your suggestion 100% of the careful attention and obedience that it deserves.

They're gonna have trouble affording smuggled oranges and tinned meat, too, when they're in the camps with bread and water as the standard food.

I get what you're saying and I'm not tryin to sit in judgement. But also, this one is fuckin important.

Even if you’re in a non “swing” state, the totals shifting in some new direction will influence it becoming a non swing state over time. It still matters. Both ways.

This was the way the crazy people got abortion banned: They picked something that was crazy out of reach, and kept working for it until it was in reach. Instead of just saying “oh well who cares, it is difficult, I will wait until someone else makes it easy.”

1. Laziness / lack of any urgency that it will matter or make a difference to them personally
2. They’re a disinformation campaign, and taking time telling you about refusing to vote is their attempt to influence the election

I suspect that almost everyone will fall into one of those two categories

Got it. That makes it make sense. This is Nate Silver’s, and I am almost sure that it predicts 25%. I think it was un paywalled at one point and that’s when I saw it.

Yeah, there’s that, too. It is just standard narrative-comes-first NYT horseshit

That is why the Democratic leadership kneecapped Bernie Sanders and DGAF that Biden is reducing income inequality and are trying to push him out now because of a vastly overblown panic about his image which far exceeds the degree to which the electorate seems to care about his image

They’re just a bunch of impractical hopeless dreamers who aren’t even aware of the seamy realpolitik of Washington DC, those DNC folk. If only someone could get them to be more cynical and corrupt, that might save us.

Why do these guys so often have the same overall physical shape

Hey cool we're back around to the very first comment you sent and the reply I made

You can go back up there on your own, and imagine that I replied with what I said last time, and then you don't have to reply because you already said what you had to say in response. Victory! It is the end of the conversation.

Yeah. It's a shame. I feel like the vast majority of the staff in both places are competent professionals laboring away in a profession that's badly badly needed, and badly badly under attack, in this country, and it feels unfair to shit on their work product when as far as I can tell the bulk of the problems are coming down from above them and they probably dislike them a lot more intensely than I do.

At the same time, you can't just ignore it, if some organization is trying to support the fascist winning the election. Fuck the NYT until further notice is my feeling. WaPo has been writing a couple of weird as hell stories too (e.g. Trump is going to save NATO), but I still have my subscription to them.

Yeah, it's basically a dead heat in national polls; it is pointless given the incredible number of issues that make it more complex to look at than just "which number in the national polling is higher" to get any level of heated about swings up or down by single percentage points in the national poll, much less "should Biden drop out?" or similar questions.

None of this is to say there is no problem. 538's overall bottom line estimate which takes into account factors way more complex than I have dug into, arrives at an ultimate output of Biden having about a 25% chance of winning the election. That's probably the closest thing we have to an overall "what's the likely election outcome" polling barometer. I'm just sort of talking about poking holes in the lazy and partisan way it tends to be analyzed when the media talks about polling.

Edit: Wait WHAT THE SHIT

I went looking for the summary model to send that said 25%, and found this - Nate Silver gives Biden overall a 52% chance to win. WHEN THE FUCK DID THIS HAPPEN

Was I just looking at the 2020 model before and not realizing it, or something? Have I become so dyslexic that I read 52 as 25 even when there was a whole chart and everything?

My world is upended and my morning is somewhat happier now. @Ensign_crab@lemmy.world hey dude I love polls again

The chart is from this which was sent to me by one of your allies in an effort to prove that Biden was cooked.

Really? CNN and USA Today, of all papers, seemed to me like they’d been doing this weirdly high level of actual journalism recently. Was CNN doing all fuck-Biden all the time in the same way and I just didn’t notice?