mozz

I once flew on an airplane sat next to a masseuse who consumed most of her own small-sized bottle of liquor she had brought on board with her, and we talked extensively as she became drunker and then she gave me a massage. That was pretty pleasant tbh.

I think this conversation has run its course and I wish you a pleasant evening

Idk dude. A week ago you were insisting that swing state polling wasn’t what was important, it was something else that let you paint a gloomy narrative.

I mean, your central point that things look grim, I agree with somewhat. It just sounds like you’re putting more energy into arguing for it, using whatever is to hand, than into trying to fix it.

From the very beginning, it always had particular features which were designed to make things worse for the users for some business reason for Microsoft. After XP, though, the work in the core OS was basically done - it wasn’t slow or lacking important features or unstable (relatively speaking, at least), and so the only changes being made to it from then on were adding crappiness to it for some reason related to business priorities or just simple stupidity. And so, it entered its slide.

Yeah, polls are crap but relative polling is like their one useful application. On that we agree

What’s your feeling about Biden’s national polling?

It’s interesting to me that you’re not upset about that prediction. You sound happy about it.

Yeah Obama did ACA and basically other than that just wasn’t a POS (domestically) and that was enough for people to love him because the usual standard is pure corporate dogshit

And so Biden did reduced income inequality, union support, huge action on climate change, corporate tax increases, hundreds of billions of dollars on student loan forgiveness, and then told the media “hey I need you to tell them I caused inflation and I hate working people and I’m old and stupid and smell bad and there’s nothing good about me even if the other guy is not just corporate and corrupt but literally wants to destroy the country”

So yeah it really is kind of Biden’s fault at the end of the day, I do see what you mean

Five out of five Americans ain’t seen nothing yet

Well that’s an interesting comment

I mean, yes, it’s true as far as it goes, and I would have thought that my point #3 would have sorta encompassed that idea and given a hint that I am aware on some level that it’s more complex than “whose line is higher in the most recent national poll = who’s going to win”.

I have more I could say on it including what other recent swing state polls besides this one are saying, and underlying problems with the methodology including e.g. the absolute insanity of reporting polls of all registered voters as if likelihood to vote was not correlated with political affiliation when we already know that it is… but mostly I was just pointing out here, (a) keep in mind what the sudden shift of narrative here is implying about the bias of the poster (b) no fate, please vote.

But now I have a more interesting question. If I look back in your history, will I find indications that you thought national level polls were important when Biden was behind, and now all of a sudden don’t care about them when Biden is ahead? ‘Cause that would be a super interesting (and to me unexpected) finding.

1. Polls are bullshit anyway, for a couple different reasons
2. Biden is 3 POINTS UP nationally in a recent NYT poll which is why the doomsayers all of a sudden switched to caring about swing states just now
3. Polls are bullshit anyway. He could be 15 points down for all we know, in the actual if-election-was-held-today counting. Nate Silver who had a pretty credible claim to cutting through all the math and bad methodology into a decent look at what’s going on gives Biden a 25% chance to win
4. Nobody knows the future to be honest. Biden could fuck up worse than the debate at any time or anything could happen. There could be a mini civil war on Election Day as the Republicans try to cancel the results and people start fighting for real for what’s going to get written down as the outcome.
5. FUCKING VOTE, register, sign up to do text banking. Volunteer to be a poll worker. Join up with a good little grouping; it might help the country and they tend to be good people and depending on how it goes after, it might save your life, too.

John Connor said it. The future is not set. Until it happens, then it is. But that shit hasn’t happened yet.

That’s the spirit!