At least I haven't had anyone accuse me of "sealioning" for quite some time. There are some advantages to the main-stream-ification of Lemmy I guess.
mozz
joined 2 years ago
Fortunately you don't have to limit yourself to the headline; there's a whole article with a whole set of statistical links that make the case
You're free to disagree of course, but just the fact that it doesn't match your preconceptions doesn't at all mean that it's wrong
People should only join the field if they're passionate about or at least enjoy it otherwise they will burn out fast. With that said, I don't think the field as a whole should be written off by those who enjoy the work
This part, I 1,000% agree with. I was actually in school for a CS degree because I had love for it, before I realized that a lot of people were in it because it was money, and it really surprised and confused me. Like buddy you're gonna have a better life if you go and find your thing that you have love for and do that instead.
think we just have different views on where AI is headed and what it is capable of. Neither job is going to be replaced any time soon by AI IMO, but I'm pretty certain a UPS driver will be replaced much sooner as it's a fundamentally simpler problem to solve.
Experts in the field don't agree with you. As of now, it's supposed to be easy white-collar mental work is the very first thing on the chopping block (accounting, paralegal, sort of simple stuff where you just have to have the right domain knowledge and not screw it up). That's not in the cards for AI currently but it's clearly on the horizon with no real earthshattering breakthroughs required. But pure-mental work that takes serious understanding and planning, something like software dev is next after that. It's far, far outside the capabilities of current AI programs yes. But I think depending on your multi decade career trajectory on nothing really changing in terms of new breakthroughs is not a real no-brainer if the priority is money and a comfortable life.
Stuff that involves interacting in the real world -- handling a vehicle that can kill people, there's no unit tests or way for someone to go in after the fact and fix it, you have to get off the truck and interact with an unpredictable environment with human rules that can't be broken down logically, or you have to physically put up framing or wiring or etc -- is actually supposed to be the last to go, after anything that's purely mental. I think it's hard to predict, as you said, but that theory makes sense to me.
I agree somewhat with your concern over the uncertainty of the world, but I figure no one really knows where we're headed so I might as well do what I love and make as much money as possible in the meantime.
This actually makes total sense to me. If you would be programming if it made $38k a year, because it is your art, then fuckin sounds great. There were a lot of people who did that way back in the day, before the whole money-function came into it, and they were content and they created a lot of the solid foundations for the computing world we have today (that will likely be around for a lot longer than Tailwind or Typescript will.)
I want solid data to back up your bull
I am mostly talking about the future. My feeling is that climate change is going to fuck up the world in a big way, and AI is going to fuck up pure-mental-computational labor as a reliable meal ticket in a big way. Neither of those are coming in the next year or two, but they're also not like 50 years from now either. You may feel differently but that is my prediction.
As of right now, the data is:
Computer programmer Austin TX, $69k - $123k I picked those more or less at random. I'm aware that senior software engineers may make more depending on area or depending on advancing into a lead role. On the other hand, many other college-dependent fields probably make less than software engineers. Tradies may make more by opening their own company. It's hard to compare. But more my point was that going into someone's house and fixing their wires is likely to remain a lot more viable than programming a web site or doing admin for a doctor's office, in the long term, starting from today and planning for what you'll be doing to have a good life in 2064.
I don't need to hangout by fucking farms. I can got to the store thank you, like a normal person. Have fun cosplaying as a hippie on some hobby farm.
I hope you are right and stores are still operating and there is still food enough for everybody and finances are the main concern. I do not think that is going to be accurate 20-30 years from now though. Again that's more where I'm coming from with this, as opposed to talking about what would have been a good plan 20 years ago and landing in late adulthood right now and thinking through your retirement going forward.
Agree agree
It used to be that working was working, and it prepared you for making a living, and education was education, and it prepared you for picking your head up above the melee and seeing what was coming and what needed to happen and adjusting (and adjusting your society) accordingly. That system worked well.
Then we entered into a little closed feedback loop of "degrees make money" -> "holy shit, I want a degree" -> "we need people to give all these thirsty people degrees" -> "well we gotta make it easier to get one then" -> "open more schools" -> "pump em in pump em out get those stacks, yay tuition" -> "more tuition" -> "student loans" -> "hey now we can REALLY charge tuition" -> "argh this degree doesn't even help me with my job which was the purpose" -> "fuck these loans are six figures and I still don't have a job" -> SYSTEM ERROR REDO FROM START
At this point, aside from some outliers which still attempt to provide a good education, the majority of undergrad programs are as far as I can tell just like a big young adult day-care program and a fairly ineffective job-training center. The educational purpose is still there depending on the professor but the wider system only cares about it every now and then, by accident.
System is fucked
It is bothersome, because actual education is actually really important. Especially in the US we really need it right now.
Yeah. Like a lot of technological shifts, it's not so much that the AI will put everyone who does mental work out of a job. It's more that that people who can interface well with the AI and operate it, will put out of a job the people who are competing directly with the AI itself.
That's only in the medium term though. In the long term the shifts from AI and climate change and God knows what else are so seismic that all bets are off IMO.
Good luck trying to explain to tech-savvy upper-income Lemmy users that average income adjusted for inflation, at the bottom end of the scale, has actually been rising faster than the grocery prices, and that that's a good thing.
I've been trying for a couple of days now with apparently no success.
my TC last year as a new grad was $200k
UPS drivers make $170k. I'm not saying you're unsafe in the short term, necessarily, or that driving for UPS is safe in the long run, either... but I think they are far less likely (or likely to be later on down the road) to get replaced by technological developments, as compared with pure software dev. And, they don't have loan debt to pay down, and they have a union to protect them against the employer suddenly realizing in the medium-term a cheaper way to get it done and picking up the axe with no hesitation.
Long term, I'm assuming that there will be very major changes to the world. There are lots of memoirs you can read of people in a sudden upheaval situation realizing that all the money in the world couldn't save them. That was part of the thinking behind my comment that I didn't really spell out in detail.
CS bachelor's degree to software engineer is a solid career prospect long term
Why long term? Short term yes, but you seem to be assuming that climate change and AI developments don't produce any major changes to the landscape.
trades destroy your body in ways that cause long term issues
Depends on what. Construction, yes, absolutely. I was thinking in terms of more like electrical or plumbing, crane operation, things like that. But yeah I'll agree with that for some things, definitely.
IDK, Pence has his gig with the Heritage Foundation at least. Trump as far as I can tell may actually need the president salary to live on, if he winds up declaring bankruptcy.
This is a FASCINATING article, I greatly enjoyed it, thank you
But at the same time (1) it breaks the back button, boo (2) I cannot read "motor1.com" without thinking of Jeremy Dewitte
They’re about 20 years too late to be doing that. Current clever-person play is to learn a solid manual trade, build good relationships with people in your community, make sure you’re directly connected to where the food comes from, travel if you can and make sure you’re familiar and have connections in a few different places in the world.
People who are today getting into CS and going into debt to get a Bachelor’s in it are in for a rude rude awakening if they observed that that would be the ticket to a comfortable life.
Sounds about right.
Tree work is dangerous, be careful with yourself. There's a tiny, tiny voice that warns you when you're about to do something dumb. It only sounds for a second, small and faint, and then it disappears. Learn to seize and amplify it, come to a complete stop and listen, and then adjust what you're doing, instead of continuing on "it'll probably be fine."