There’s been a lot of talk about the production capacity gap between Russia and NATO as it relates to artillery rounds specifically. Russia has retooled its economy and invested heavily in wartime production and is currently seeing it pay dividends both on the battlefield but also in the overall health of their economy. Meanwhile the NATO nations have refused to make the investment in restarting mass production of rounds, a capability liquidated and sold off under the guiding principles of neoliberalism, and instead has solely relied on draining existing stockpiles bits at a time. The result has been catastrophic for the Ukrainians tasked with dying on NATO’s behalf ever since the initial blitz push from the RusFed was repelled and the war has settled into a WWI style trench and artillery game of attrition.
I think though that we shouldn’t confuse an unwillingness with an inability. There’s no reason to believe that the US or Germany are incapable of making the investment to restart the mass production of artillery shells (or any mass produced weapon of war rather than the big ticket, hyper specialized war toys they prefer now). There’s an entire point to be made that in this moment of profitability crisis the only industries that are succeeding are the ones hand chosen by the state to be made so with direct subsidies and funding (re: Brenner & Riley’s Seven Theses in which they attempt to coin “political capitalism” as the new economic model post-neoliberalism). The general consensus seems to be that there’s so far been an unwillingness to commit to the production process because it’s been thought that the Russo-Ukrainian war will end before the investment will be worthwhile and then the general style of combat will return to anti-insurgency missions relying on drones and laser guided munitions rather than mass produced dumb bombs and shells. My fear is that if this calculation changes and there is heavy investment in restarting the NATO war machine it puts us on the path towards another world war. The European nations may see the success of the Russian economy under wartime policies and see the return of a military Keynesianism as an appealing out to their financial woes but, as we know from the start of the previous century, you can only build up your stock of weapons for so long before the imperative to use them arises. I’m worried that the long duree trends of the 21st century see the return of both multipolarity as well as great powers conflicts, but this time we have nukes. Guess there’s nothing to really do about it tho but enjoy the view 
We’re not talking about the full scale reindustrialization of the imperial core, just the restarting of the war machine specifically. Germany and the US currently rank in as the 4th and 5th largest manufacturing economies respectively (China, India, Japan are 1-3). Just because less profitable industries got shipped overseas and factories that used to employ hundreds now just need 50 dudes and a ton of automation doesn’t mean the imperial powers lack heavy production abilities. Additionally factors of profitability concerns are moot in instances of direct government funding like defense contracting (tho inflation risks being an issue, Russia is currently undergoing a minor inflation crisis due to their commitment to military production tho this is minor compared to the economic benefits from the overall economic growth). The only thing lacking is a political will to commit to a war economy in the core.
Dark thought but I see a return to the US abusing Latin and South America in the face of a shrinking empire as the justification to revamp the imperial death machine. The current crop of GOP primary candidates has already openly discussed invading Mexico. A wounded US empire forced to withdrawal from the fringes may concentrate its violence more heavily within its own sphere of influence to secure what territory it can still control