benjhm

joined 2 years ago
[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 14 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

This principle works most but not all the time. I develop an interactive climate-system model that evolved with many small steps over 23 years. So it has many patchy fixes as climate policy structure changed, gases and sectors added etc. Then converted from java to scala module by module (out of ±50) , each step checking the plots looked as before. Result is it works, but parts are messy with legacy options and outdated code style. So sometimes it's necessary to radically rethink the structure, take big bold steps before it works again, that's hard. Scala strong type system, with hints from compiler (and "metals") help make such refactoring easier.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 12 points 2 years ago

Some of us will even remember when compilers ran on big central computers, and you might have to wait 15–30 minutes to find out if your code was syntactically correct (let alone if it worked.)

My father remembers when he wrote code printed on a set of punched cards, they traveled several hours on an evening train to a warehouse with a big government statistics computer (that was too busy during daytime), the result came back by train next morning. Syntax error? try again tomorrow...

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 years ago

If there is a nuclear leak, rather than trying to block the leak, Belgian politicians will just argue for decades about ensuring a fair distribution of radioactive pollution between flemish and francophones (as they do with the dossier about the noise from brussels airport).

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 4 points 2 years ago

And why is the slider maximum at 2000m? Afaik, even if you melt most of Antarctica, it wouldn't provide much more than 100m. About 12m (melting Greenland + West Antarctica) is a more plausible scenario - and that still floods plenty of cities.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 years ago

Nice, but hardly a new idea, I made one for the Norfolk coast back in 1996. And recall a colleague made one for whole of Denmark, also last century.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 4 points 2 years ago

I'm by the river Meuse in Wallonie, which still cuts through the Ardennes, another end of same old mountain range as the Appalachians, continuously eroding while mountains uplifted (just as Indus and Brahmaputra cut through Himalayas now), before the Atlantic ocean existed. Makes you think about time, pity schools don't teach this stuff.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 3 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

I still wonder which ancient dude invented all those case endings, not only in latin but in modern polish, hindi etc.?
From the map it seems it descended from Ararat, should we make Armenian the base language for european parliament?
Note this is not just an academic debate, it has political implications relating to origins, for example in Ukraine, and in India (where promotors of hindutva really don't like the idea that they are immigrants too...).
See also this community: Languages and Linguistics | Polyglots, Language Learners and Linguists.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 4 points 2 years ago (1 children)

A global statistic blends greening slowly in some areas, browning faster in others. A fire can in a few hours devastate a forest in an area that became too arid, while it may take a century for a forest to grow in an area where climate improved. So while climate warming accelerates this'll get worse, but if the same climate stabilised the global vegetation cover at equilibrium might be not so bad (even if very bad in some regions). Regarding air moisture, both H~2~O and and CO~2~ pass through the same stomata in leaves, so there was some hope that plants could open these less at higher CO~2~ and thus resist drought, but as with all such effects the benefit tapers off.
Anyway all policy scenarios with any hope of staying below 2ºC, let alone 1.5ºC, include a lot of net reforestation. So we'll have to turn this around, somewhere.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 2 points 2 years ago

Title should clarify this is about Australia - which has some of the best climate science in CSIRO, is also very exposed to desertification, fires, coral bleaching etc., and yet (averaged over time) some of the worst climate policymaking and public appreciation of such science. Seems they have some special disconnection mechanism down under - is it cultural or just coal ?

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 2 points 2 years ago

They'll probably develop resistance and rebound after a few years. What really matters there long-term is the food supply - how the ice melt affects phytoplankton affects krill affects fish etc.
Here by river Meuse usually many migrating geese, but fewer this year - I suspect same reason.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 8 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (3 children)

I develop an interactive climate / future scenario model, now in scala, earlier in java, almost no dependencies. No visualisation frameworks - the diverse plots hand coded in scala (transpiles using scala.js, makes SVGs on demand). The science code from demography through economy emissions, bioegeochemistry, to climate - just scala, no interface to other languages / models, no "solver" tool. Data input just text files -easy to check. Some modules over 20 years old (except converted java -> scala), still work reliably. It's efficient as all client-side, no IO/net between adjustments and results. Seems no big institute would employ me for such model dev because my experience doesn't tick the boxes of all the current fashionable frameworks. But at least I can share a way to explore the future for ourselves ... and yes it’s bleak but not so dire as many people here seem to assume, we still have choices.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 years ago

Hmm, looking briefly at IEA exec-sum plots for 'stated policies', only coal really peaks and that's about now (and in reality, imho, this depends mainly on the chinese construction bubble bursting, rather than intentional policy ). Oil and gas barely peak, just shift towards developing countries. Anyway trying to predict these things doesn't make sense, the question should be where do we want to go, not where are we going. So, time to update the IEA data in my own model...

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