benjhm

joined 2 years ago
[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Et si Liège va suivre Paris par convertir ces quais en plages, au moins sans voitures?

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 years ago

spraying silver fog from planes to seed clouds comes to mind... (checkout geo-engineering)

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 4 points 2 years ago

Others summarised below, I just add that in chinese it's 一带一路, terms broader than "belt" or "road" - 路 translates better as way as it can also cover sea-ways, railways etc. , 带 can also mean carry or zone, etc.. So, it implies cooperation on infrastructure projects, but was not a great choice of name for global translation.
I support developing overland transport rather than flying, for climate reasons, however it's obviously also about geopolitical deals - otherwise why would Italy be on the way from China to anywhere?

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

Sure need to consider that - but what bad policy could they get through QMV (>> simple majority but << consensus), that a lone more progressive m-state might otherwise block ?

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 3 points 2 years ago

This warming effect of persistent contrails / cirrus is hardly new - IPCC even made a special report on aviation back in 1999 quantifying this. We used to reckon the ratio of total-effects / CO~2~-alone was higher than reported in this article - partly as there is also a NOx / Ozone effect not discussed here, but also as such ratio depends strongly on how you integrate over time (as for all metrics like GWP).
More systematic measurements might be useful, as avoiding super-saturated layers, or re-timing flights (the net effect of high clouds depends on angle of the sun) could be one of the cheapest short-term climate mitigation actions to take. However it's not true that "research institutions ... are only just beginning to develop the tools for making such predictions", the industry has just delayed considering this, by diplomatically passing the buck to ICAO. We had a related project, but our government dodged the issue as it was linked to shipping, and it seemed air traffic control were just afraid of extra work.
Long-term of course, it doesn't solve the problem of the CO~2~, I'm not a believer in any significant quantity of "sustainable fuel", prefer to cross continents by train.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 3 points 2 years ago

Within EU there are proposals to move to QMV for most topics (spanish presidency still pushing this), problem is vetos block such reform. EU doesn't have any power to invade (yet?). Regarding UN, most processes, like UNFCCC and even IPCC, operate by consensus - this dilutes many outcomes, it’s a pity. As for UN-SC, its record of helping is not great, just legitimizes old power, maybe should be abolished. I'd rather see a weighted GA vote (maybe excluding parties to a conflict).

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 0 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

In defence of the jack-of-all-trades, if everybody is a cog in the machine, nobody sees the overview of how the cogs could connect.
For what it’s worth, here's an overview of some cogs made by a j-o-a-t, for whom software developer is just a sub-role, within understanding complex climate system.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 2 points 2 years ago (4 children)

Thanks that helps (I'm far away but try to understand). The changing north-south balance of demographics, and potential migration, is particularly interesting (thinking about modeling this, in context of climate change).
Am I right to understand that much of the south was for years run by regional parties, do you think these might coordinate together to defeat BJP ? And does anybody propose to change first-past-the-post? Mizoram is also interesting, as situation evolves just across the border. Many big elections next year, but India is the most important, pity little discussion here on Lemmy.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 22 points 2 years ago

Hi, just an inter-generational message:

25 years ago, I used to be a colleague of a lead author of that report. Like the others, he flew to global conferences, gradually built up a portfolio of papers, and so became a a famous professor with an interesting life, and can now release such reports with obvious timing to influence COP28 (and thereby get government support for the team to continue such research projects...).
But the contents are not really "news", most of this was predictable by those of us who knew the science back then 25 years ago, which was also reported the hottest year for a millenium. My thoughts then were similar to some of those some you write below (->above?). So I went to protests, and (by train, bicycle) to COPs to try to bridge the gap between science and policy, and instead of papers tried to spread knowledge via interactive web tools (really new tech then). I didn't nurture a career, because I didn't expect society to survive for so long. I assisted for a while near the core of IPCC and EU policy, but without papers and flights for networking, was easily disposable. Now 25 years later I sit shivering, in relative poverty, with little influence. To keep trying, I revive my interactive climate model (admittedly needs much more at the impacts end - no such big team), still hoping such tools could communicate something papers don't. I'm not judging who was right, just telling younger people - be aware this is a long-term game.

As I wrote in another post recently, tipping points are real, but thresholds vary by region and sector, and we don't know them accurately. So if you integrate over risk you get a curve - non-linear of course, but not showing that any year is particularly special - unless we make it so, socially.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 2 points 2 years ago

Except afaik, they do glue protests in big cities where there are plenty of metros, buses, bicycles ...

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 years ago

History suggests it’s easier to catalyse an uprising than handle the reaction and govern well thereafter - need to think through the whole story.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 3 points 2 years ago (6 children)

Thanks for post, would be helpful to see more context, like how much did each change?

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