benjhm

joined 2 years ago
[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 8 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Many old cars that are no longer allowed in european cities end up exported to Africa. This leap-frogging move (esp if others copy) changes the outlook - depreciation of ic-cars accelerates, europeans might have to recycle more. Otoh, there are not yet so many 2nd-hand e-cars, so poorer people in rural areas of Ethiopia might be stuck - unless there is plenty of public transport even outside of cities? Wonder whether it applies to (mini-)buses?

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 years ago

Indeed, as I mentioned in my main comment

Some of the ‘mandates’ are far too easily implemented.

At least that one requires a 'parliament majority' - otoh big groups are not in that parliament at all... Actually 'ungrowth' in the north may just happen anyway, slowly, for demographic reasons.
Maybe this type of game could provide a structure to help people to debate factors, if could vary (packages of) assumptions... ?
As it is, might encourage some to wait for a revolution rather than engaging current options.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 2 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Well you can 'win' leaving current nuclear fraction as is, the old stuff keeps working without any disaster (missing factor ??).
Otoh, nuclear fusion has been tomorrow's breakthrough for half a century ...

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 2 points 2 years ago

Thanks, I'm having a look.
Some elements quite sophisticated, seems a good use for wasm (although I prefer scala.js for an interactive model).
Use of Hector makes sense, but seems emissions drop more negative than I can get from my model, maybe it lacks some feedbacks, or has some double-counting of policy-impacts?
Are developers still active in this project - discussion of issues mostly a year or more ago ?

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 years ago

Sure, but this is also a real game we need to win (well, maybe not <1C in that timeframe) , and we only get one chance to play. This example helps people learn, but there are things to adjust.
Another (I didn't mention above) is that construction (including new energy, 'green' cities etc.) takes massive time, energy, materials - it’s not clear that's sufficiently taken into account, and likewise not by real "socialist" planners.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 6 points 2 years ago (4 children)

You can get those 'accelerationists' within the coalition by funding lots of research, just don't expect it all to work, don't even need to apply it. Actually I think that 'bias' is realistic. Problem is rather political groups that are missing - religious for example.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 4 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (4 children)

OK, so I tried this, able to win on the second round. :-)
First time you risk to do some things too early, others you must do early, but I won't spoil the challenge by giving details.
Good emphasis on land-use limitations.

Concept is nicer than 'fate of the world' which was rather similar (and even fotw told me their idea was partly inspired by an idea on my website about 23 years ago). Both this and fotw based on 'cards', while prefer to adjust levers gradually, and see graphs move in real-time.
(btw going back even further, does anybody remember 'lincity' )?

Some things confusing - e.g. you adjust percentages not totals, but totals change, which hits limits in not-obvious ways. No mention of space-heating challenge eg heat-pumps (suggests made in tropics?), no modal-shift in transport (except inside cities). I'd like to see whether the numbers reflect current emissions of China, and Arabia (I doubt it, doesn't fit the 'south is good' narrative). Overall I suspect that the calculations are too optimistic, but can't say more without detailed plots of changes over time, or a view of the engine code.

But biggest unrealities:

  • We don't have such a scenario - there is no global planner - "god games" are too easy concept.
  • The fraction of contrarians is larger (than the 3 groups I couldn't satisfy in this game), maybe increasing (?).
  • Some of the 'mandates' are far too easily implemented.

I ponder how to design a game which is more realistic in these respects.
Having said that, I think the 'magic card' has some merits, if everybody would play, maybe that helps tip the balance.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 years ago

Saw same band (±) perform this in Norwich almost 30 yrs later, classic. As students we used to add 'actions' to dramatise it.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 7 points 2 years ago (1 children)

That's a useful map, actually shows a lot more than the title suggests! I note the arrow showing exodus from Circassia / Abkhazia (pushed by Russia) is at least as big. To complete the picture it could be useful to indicate, alongside the source end of each arrow, a symbol indicating the number who didn't make it due to war and genocide, and for context the numbers who remained. Also there are emigrants who moved outside the region.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 2 points 2 years ago

Draining peat bogs is a bad idea in many parts of the world. For example similar issue in Scotland, Ireland, iirc.

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 3 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

No. Sea-level is rising, much of Lagos will be underwater. So they'll have to relocate. It's slow so more people could live there for the next few decades, but mega-construction not be a wise investment.
Demographic projections have a lot of inertia, but sea-level rise (transfer of heat into the deep ocean and icecaps) has even more inertia (in my model i explore both, although sorry SLR is out-of-date and not yet detail at city level, but the inertia is there).

[–] benjhm@sopuli.xyz 1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Btw, wasn't there a convenient old tunnel from Waverley to Scotland street? Might make more sense for a N-S tram route, except would need matching tunnel at similar level on the old-town side.
I liked the system in many east-european cities: Trams for the old centre, trolleybuses to the suburbs, 'auto'-buses to the villages. Have to change, but it flows faster.

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