Global directly-anthropogenic CO2 emissions - things we measure and attribute to countries - have been flat in the period 2019-23 (except for covid dip), and maybe falling this year (due to changes in China). However there are also climate -> carbon feedbacks. The most obvious are forest fires which tend to peak during El Niño years (it's a repeating pattern - I even remember 1998 seeming bad). Heating also enhances respiration by bugs in soils, and reduces the solubility of CO2 in seawater - the ocean is the largest and most long-term CO2 sink. El Niño also changes ocean circulation temporarily, but I forget which way this impacts CO2 (it's not trivial - you have to think about the history and future of large patches of water).
So, if known emissions are flat, but there is a record increase in the atmosphere, that means those feedbacks are worse.
It takes a while to disentangle the factors, but this is not a surprise to me.
benjhm
It's not just good for pigs and chickens, doesn't Ireland already feed seaweed to cows to reduce methane emissions ? Also along the west coast of Scotland seaweed was used as fertiliser, this was even a big export during the Napoleonic wars.
So that suggests, over 4 tons CO2 per tank-refill. Many of those things don't get to roll very far (except by train, ship), but there's still over 120 tons embodied CO2 just from producing the (mainly) steel. Also the energy in the shells.
I guess military planes, ships, missiles contribute more than tanks. Should also consider albedo effects such as smoke drifting over arctic snow.
But maybe this is all dwarfed by the implied emissions of reconstruction later, also missed opportunities for cooperation on global mitigation efforts.
Oui, ce n'est pas evident, mais il faut continuer expliquer ces questions éthiques et les risques d'en****tification (je ne sais pas l'equiv français...). Moi j'ai quitté meta en 2016 et twitter en 2023. Parfois les gens ne changent d'habitudes qu'après un désastre (par exemple peut être ces élections qui viennent ?- mais j'espère que non ), dans ce cas ce serait des alternatifs déjà établis qui gagneraient, donc on prépare en essayant atteindre une masse critique pour chaque sujet.
(Je ne suis pas le type suggérer des choses au niveau communal, mais peut etre si nouveau début après octobre ? )
Tu as essayé bien avec des collectifs - c'est meme difficile avec une famille - j'ai essayé leur apprendre codage sur rasp-pi etc., mais avec ados si papa dit aucune chose c'est automatiquement anti-cool... ( ils veulent tiktok - il nous manque un equivalent en logiciel libre ).
Néanmoins, on peut apprécier lemmy sans tout le stack linux, suggérer un 'app' à la fois.
The key new info is not the decadal trend, it's 'not yet risen beyond pre-pandemic levels' - in other words global emissions are ± flat. More recent info (also from carbonbrief) suggests that China's emissions may now be falling (and therefore likely global too -as China was such a large fraction of recent growth). On the other hand feedbacks from high temperatures in 2023 - forest fires, ocean circulation etc., made the atmospheric CO2 rise break another record, but several temporary factors (e.g. reduced shipping sulphate, El Nino, solar cycle, etc.) contributed to that spike.
"...at a rate of roughly 0.05 percent per day ... would take a very long time" ... but by my quick calculation 0.9995^3650 is 84% per decade, which is not long. Almost instantaneous on a geological timescale - and think how much the world changed when fungi learned how to digest lignin in wood - ending the era of coal-forming swamps.
But what can "maximum vigilance in these last days" do to counter last-minute fake news ? The night before the brexit referendum, facebook distributed loads of fake messages on the theme of migration (e.g. especially targeted to south asians to say they could have more chance at family reunions if there would be less east-europeans, while targeted to others to say there would less asians ... ), all of this after the other channels were silent following the murder of Jo cox.
Of course all emissions should be counted. It's not just the explosions and burning oil, I'd guess that manufacturing all the steel and chemicals also uses loads of energy. Some stockpiles used now may be associated with emissions long ago, e.g. in the last decades of the soviet union emissions rose very high, even while the economy was low.
Hi, excuse me for replying so late, but i've been away from lemmy for.a while.
Well, to summarise, the model calculates the future trajectories, of population, economy, emissions, atmospheric gases, and climate response etc., according to a set of (hundreds of) diverse options and uncertainties which you can adjust - the key feature is that the change shows rapidly enough to let you follow cause -> effect, to understand how the system responds in a quasi-mechanical way.
Indeed you are right, complexity is beautiful, but hard. A challenge with such tools is to adjust gradually from simple to complex. Although SWIM has four complexity levels, they are no longer systematically implemented - also what seems simple or complex varies depending where each person is coming from, so i think to adapt the complexity filter into a topic-focus filter. Much todo ...
Bonjour à tous, Le défi pour nous ici sur Lemmy, c'est que autour d'ici (j'habite un village au sud de Namur) tous communiquent par les réseaux de Meta, pendant que les outils de google sont imposés dans les écoles, et les jeunes sont au tiktok. Je trouve que le monde francophone reste un peu naïf dans ce regard, ayant vu la marée de disinfo arrive d'abord chez les anglophones déjà en 2016. Alors qu'est-ce qu'on peut faire pour populariser le fédiverse localement ?
I'd suggest to take a hammock, it's easier to disappear among some trees. Also you don't need to carry a mat, unless it's cold...
Well, maybe not just wait ... Some factors will fall back - e.g. El Niño is a cycle, so are sunspots, ocean patches go round in (big-slow) loops, forests can run out of tinder (for a while). But to be sure to tip the balance of those climate-carbon feedbacks we need to get the temperature down - this could be done quicker by focusing especially on emissions of shorter-lived gases - mainly methane. Cutting out aviation-induced cirrus might also help to cancel some of the warming we got from cutting shipping sulphate - the opposite effect is because low clouds cause net cooling, high clouds cause net warming (depending on angle of sun etc. ...). The good news is that models already include most of these factors, the bad news is that models say we have to cut emissions much faster than we do.