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So all teams have played now, and the early signs are that this season is going to be an absolute belter.

Of the 10 games, only 2 have been a bit of a blow out, everything else has been well fought for the full 80, and with the Aussie teams absorbing one club to reduce to four they look much more competitive already.

Probably the biggest talking point so far is how the new focus on continuing the game rather than pissing about for a cup of tea every few phases is making the last 20 minutes a huge battle.

Basically what happens now is lineouts have to be formed within 30 seconds, I think the only reason to delay is if the hooker isn't available. So there's just way less players taking a knee for a breather (though SR traditionally didn't have much of that anyway).

Kicks, Scrums, Lineouts are all going way faster, and once a player has held up play for an "injury" a couple of times the referee is making sure that its severe, and if it is asking them to get a replacement on.

I expect the popularity of those changes is going to be pretty high down here, but of course international rugby swings to the beat of the NH rule makers so it will be interesting to see if it hurts the ABs & Wallabies come test time, where because the big forwards will be allowed to have a breather any extra fitness gained won't matter.

If you want to watch any recommendations from this weekend: Chiefs-Crusaders for the (so far) clear best team putting on a clinic in that last 20. Highlanders-Blues for one team overcoming cards due to a hugely emotional game and possibly one player demanding Razor gives him the black 12 jersey. Force-Brumbies for a game down to the wire right until the whistle.

Posting purely because we all need to talk about how rad that catch from GP was.

Just starting an early thread as there's injury news that will impact the weekend.

The NZ based franchises & Moana Pasifika are all announcing their squads for the 2025 season today. On the hour, in NZDT:

• Hurricanes 10am
• Crusaders 11am
• Chiefs 12pm
• Moana Pasifika 1pm
• Highlanders 2pm
• Blues 3pm

I hated Cheika when he was the Wallabies coach and having ding dong battles with the ABs. But since he's coached around the place and learning a lot more about his story i've begun to find him a much more interesting and charming coach than I ever gave him credit for.

This is a great interview, well worth a listen and i'm so far barely half way through it.

I guess week 1 was really NZ v Japan last week, but somehow I don't think that really counts.

Ran out of puff at the end of the NPC so haven't been posting much, but lets have a thread to discuss this weekend's matches.

Super Rugby obviously has a bit of a weird structure now with only 11 teams after the Melbourne Rebels collapsed.

It got me thinking a bit about what NZR & ARU could change assuming no other countries are going to join, and one thing I wondered was whether New Zealand should deliberately weaken our Super franchises to help make the Australian ones more competitive & hopefully make their public a bit more interested (if they win more).

So I started to think about what the population spread was like around New Zealand and one thing that really sticks out is how bottom heavy our current distribution of clubs is. 1 million punters in the South Island get 2 franchises, but 4.5m odd North Islanders only get 3 + Moana Pasifika. Its actually a bit silly that the Highlanders still exist given the population shifts since the 90s.

Anyway, that made me wonder if it might be possible to in effect add a 6th New Zealand franchise - which including MP would make 7 based in New Zealand in total, so came up with this before & after table to show how its a much more equitable split. And then 7 NZ, 4 Aus & 1 Fiji gets us back to 12 Franchises and at least in NZ gets more games in front of more people.

• 1 Included with Auckland.
• 2 Includes Whanganui in the census data.
• 3 From 2026 I think the new stadium is supposed to be in use.
• 4 Includes Marlborough, same as the NPC Province
• 5 Moana Pasifika are currently, and for the forseeable future going to be playing most of their matches in New Zealand, neither Samoa nor Tonga have stadiums and infrastructure setup to host like Fiji Drua have.
• Population regions not included:
• • Gisborne 50k - because its quite remote from either Hurricanes or Chiefs
• • West Coast South Island 32k - because its remote from everywhere

• 6 I included Gisborne population in this one as with a franchise based in this part of the country they are a bit more included than they are with the Chiefs or Hurricanes.

Table:

Fixtures: 4/10:

• Northland v Otago

5/10:

• Manawatū v Counties-Manukau
• Southland v North Harbour
• Wellington v Hawke's Bay
• Canterbury v Waikato

6/10:

• Tasman v Taranaki
• Auckland v Bay of Plenty

Notes: Auckland managing to fail against Hawke's Bay on the Saturday didn't bode well for their effort to take the shield off Tasman, and sure enough they failed again so bar a miracle where they manage to beat BoP and the two worst teams pick up wins they're out. Ditto for Otago.

The drama in this round is basically down to how many bonus points North Harbour pick up against Southland, compared to Counties-Manukau against the Manawatū Turbos who are awful.

Beyond that there's still another couple of big games. Given recent form Hawke's Bay are unlikely to be much of a challenge for Wellington, but the Tasman v Taranaki game should determine who gets 2nd place and later that day Waikato & Canterbury are basically playing to determine which team they have to travel to for the quarter finals.

Table:

Fixtures: 27/09:

• Counties-Manukau v Wellington

28/09:

• BoP v Northland
• Hawke's Bay v Auckland
• Otago v Tasman

29/09:

• North Harbour v Canterbury
• Southland v Waikato
• Taranaki v Manawatū

2/10:

• Tasman v Auckland

Predictions:

• Wellington 15+
• BoP 21+
• Hawke's Bay 1-^1^
• Tasman 12+
• North Harbour 6-
• Waikato 12+
• Taranaki 50+

1 - I don't know if Folau Fakatava is back from injury yet or not; he's been out the last two games and without him as a 2nd playmaker my Magpies have been dreadful. No ability to relieve pressure means two massive hidings in a row. This is a prediction from the heart, not the head :)

Notes:

Its now the second to last round, and mathematically probably only Manawatū are definitively outside of the top 8, but I think we can assume that Northland and Southland are also no chance given at best they can only be expecting to win 1/2.

Otago are also only likely to win 1 more match so there's the 4 wooden spooners confirmed and we only need to pick two more teams to stay or slip out of the top 8.

Auckland have had a terrible season, but have 3 games in hand, so could pick up another 15 points, except they are playing Hawke's Bay, Tasman & BoP so are only likely to win 1, they should finish somewhere around 24 points.

North Harbour could beat Canterbury, and should beat Southland so are potentially looking at a points upside of 6-10 points, but Counties-Manukau have a guaranteed win against Manawatū so for Harbour to make it they really need to push for a win against the Rams.

Waikato should pick up another 4-5 points against Southland, even if they lose to Canterbury the following week so are probably safe.

So, weirdly the two other teams that are at some risk are Hawke's Bay & Canterbury, purely because neither of their next two games are guaranteed wins. The Rams are probably more likely to get a win given the Magpies woeful form since losing the Shield, but i'd say both of them are likely safe - even if the 'pies get the job done with bonus points rather than wins.

As for the top of the table, well with a game in hand, the high spending Tasman Makos are most likely to take 1st place again, followed by Wellington. Taranaki & BoP will both get wins this round, so if Auckland continue to suck and Tasman continue to be good, BoP will secure 3rd in the final game of the round-robin ahead of the playoffs.

• All Blacks v Wallabies
• Argentina v South Africa

Big news ahead of Bledisloe 1 is that Beauden Barrett is out with illness which sees Jordan move to 15, Reece comes on at 14 with Harry Plumber being named on the reserve bench.

That suggests he’s leapt ahead of Havili as the utility player - and in a way it actually does make a lot of sense. Jordan, JB & McKenzie give 3 options at 15, Plumber gives cover at 10 & 12, and ALB gives 12 & 13 cover with the option of Ioane heading to the wing too. Very versatile backs.

Table:

Fixtures:

20/09

• Hawke's Bay v Taranaki

21/09

• Northland v North Harbour
• Canterbury v Counties-Manukau
• Wellington v BoP

22/09

• Waikato v Tasman
• Auckland v Southland
• Manawatū v Otago

25/09

• Taranaki v North Harbour

Predictions:

• Hawke's Bay 3+ (going with my heart on this one bc after last weekend, the head says its going to be a struggle)
• North Harbour 14+
• Canterbury 10+
• Wellington 4+
• Tasman 10+
• Auckland 10+
• Otago 5+
• Taranaki 10+

Notes: Including this weekend there are 3 rounds left until the quarter-finals, the current top 4 should make the top 8 though all of them would be hoping for at least 1 win from the next 3 matches. Especially with Tasman & Taranaki having a game in hand, the former should be eyeing up top of the table.

Of course, they're a very good team, and clearly well resourced given the talent they have signed up so anything outside of top 4 would have been a fail. I'd say the top 7 are probably going to make the playoffs and its really just about whether North Harbour or Counties-Manukau squeek in last place.

Write up from my old mate Max Rashbrooke on the success of the school lunch program, and the likely impacts of the cuts to the program from the National-Act-NZ First government.