Yeah, I think we have a tendency to overestimate the degree to which states (Russia, US and China in particular) have a multi-step plan they are working towards. States are run on a much more opportunist, fly-by-wire basis, rather than according to a coherent and detailed plan.
More of 'if we provoke a war in Ukraine we might cause trouble for Europe, but that still works for us', rather than 'We are going to provoke a war in Ukraine, so that we can weaken Europe and therefore strengthen our position against China', in the case of the US. But maybe that's all just semantics.
I'm gonna post