A new U.N. report sheds light on how climate change is driving some climate-vulnerable nations deeper into debt, locking them into unsustainable cycles of economic crisis and hampering their governments’ ability to provide basic services to citizens.
Focusing on the Bahamas, the report looks at how natural disasters impact public debt and the realization of Bahamians’ human rights.
Attiya Waris, the report’s author and U.N. independent expert on foreign debt, found that the effect of five major hurricanes since 2012 has forced the country of about 400,000 people to take on billions of dollars in debt for reconstruction while imperiling its tourism-dependent economy. As a result, the Bahamian government has been less able to spend on programs like food assistance, business loans and unemployment benefits—the need for which increases after climate-induced natural disasters.
In 2019, Hurricane Dorian, the most recent major hurricane to hit the Carribean nation of about 700 islands, caused a staggering $3.4 billion in damage, equal to roughly one-fourth of the country’s GDP. The category five storm killed upwards of 70 people and ripped apart homes and businesses, affecting an additional 30,000 people.
In the aftermath of the storm, the country’s then-finance minister K. Peter Turnquest announced that the government would cut taxes, rather than raise them to fund the recovery, given the hurricane’s deleterious impact on the economy and the need to help business restart. To fund the clean up, temporary shelters, food assistance and other expenses, the government was forced to borrow roughly $500 million, he said.
This spring was meant to bring a flowering of climate action by President Joe Biden’s administration. But the heat of the 2024 political season has scorched some of its most ambitious plans.
Facing pushback from political allies and vulnerable Senate Democrats, as well as the growing risk of reversal by a future Republican Congress, the Biden administration has abandoned some of the most controversial elements of its climate agenda. Instead, over the coming weeks, federal agencies are set to finalize some long-awaited climate regulations in much weakened form:
U.S. companies will be forced for the first time to disclose climate-related risks to investors, under rules that Wall Street’s top regulator is expected to approve Wednesday. But the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to drop its original plan to make businesses include climate-related perils up and down their supply chains.
The U.S. power industry will be required to rein in emissions from coal plants, as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) revives an effort begun nearly a decade ago. But the EPA said it will delay action on the more than 2,000 existing natural gas plants that are now responsible for 43 percent of the sector’s greenhouse gas pollution.
Automakers will face new tailpipe emissions standards designed to drive an industry transition to electric vehicles. But reports indicate that the EPA will slow the implementation of the new rules, delaying a sharp ramp-up in EVs until after 2030.
Deeply unserious. Further down the article:
...The Biden team faces a more immediate deadline, thanks to the legacy of Newt Gingrich and his stint as House Speaker. The Congressional Review Act, passed as part of Gingrich’s 1996 Contract With America legislative package, provides Congress with a relatively easy path for overturning any regulation finalized within the last 60 working days of the previous Congress. All that is required is a simple majority, as long as the president agrees with the decision.
In practice, the law is only salient when an opposing party gains control of both Congress and the White House after an election. And for its first 20 years, the Congressional Review Act was only used once—in 2001, when the Republican Congress that swept in with President George W. Bush voted to kill the workplace ergonomic rules that were finalized late in President Bill Clinton’s administration.
Then came Trump. He signed off on Congressional kills of 16 regulations finalized in Obama’s final year in office.
A sole Republican in Congress—the late Sen. John McCain—saved Obama’s methane rules from the Congressional Review Act hammer. (He did the same with Obamacare.) That would have been a devastating blow to climate action efforts, since the Congressional Review Act essentially prohibits any future administration from resurrecting any rule the CRA kills.
Trump eventually did rescind Obama’s methane rules, along with about 100 other environmental regulations. But within months of Biden’s election, the Democratic-controlled Congress rescinded Trump’s rescission of the methane rules; it was one of three Trump actions lawmakers killed using the CRA. Since then, Biden has sought to strengthen the methane rules and others he has revived from Obama’s original climate plan, including rules on power plants and passenger vehicle tailpipe emissions.
Climate change really does reveal to what degree "liberal democracy" and things like term limits are unworkable in crises that cannot be solved without impacting capitalist profit-making. The Chinese democratic system is infinitely superior as you don't have to put so much effort into this back-and-forth bullshit between parties.
We just need China to open up that third front in Taiwan and honestly I reckon the collapse of the US is accelerated by like 30 years at least
Naked Capitalism has a new piece on Israel. Simplicius also wrote a piece a few days ago.
TLDR:
Socially:
- It's difficult to have a great idea of what's really going on in Israel because of the sheer magnitude of propaganda and narratives and hasbara. The best you can really do is stumble around in the fog and decide whether or not this article or that statistic is meaningful or meaningless.
- From what we can tell, Israeli opinions against Palestinians are not improving, which is expected. If anything, the young appear to be more conservative and bloodthirsty than the older generations (though I'm not somebody who believes in generational politics or that the zoomers will save us or whatever, so idc).
- Israeli society nonethless appears to irrevocably shattered. The sense of safety has gone, and the dramatic victory and display of military might that could have repaired it has not happened and seems less likely to happen every month that this goes on. On the contrary, Israelis seem to believe that the death count is higher than the Israeli government is letting on.
Economically:
- Israel experienced a 20% decline in Q4 GDP. I don't put much stock in GDP figures but a hit like that is extremely difficult to just shrug at.
- Imports are down 42%, which indicates that the blockade is being more successful than previously thought.
- Spending is up by 90%, while investment is down by 70% and private consumption dropped 27% and public consumption dropped 90%. Israel also suffered its first sovereign credit rating downgrade.
- NATOpedia says that the number of settlers evacuated from the Lebanese border is at 96,000. If scaled up to the US population, that would be 3.5 million people. These settlers are receiving social support which is perhaps not sustainable in the long term, and regardless, every month that goes by without businesses operating near the border makes it more unlikely that they'll be revived. They'll just set up shop elsewhere.
- According to rumours, 500,000 Israelis have emigrated and immigration into Israel fell by 70% in November. People who can emigrate on short notice are more likely to be affluent, so them not being around anymore to spend money is probably not great.
- About half a million compensation claims for businesses have been filed so far, and the damage is so far 6 times greater than the war in 2006.
Militarily:
- Once again, the West's inability to fight wars of attrition for a drawn out length of time is on full display.
- The war in Gaza is going badly and most are aware of it. Resistance groups inside the strip do not seem to be meaningfully weakened despite us being in month 6 of the conflict. It's entirely possible that Hamas has recruited more people than they've lost.
- Israel says that they're going to invade Rafah soon, so Israeli casualties will increase even further soon.
- Border settlers want Hezbollah pushed back to the Litani River to provide a buffer zone. Unfortunately for them, this doesn't seem possible. Israel made two (albeit limited) attempts recently to strike at Hezbollah in cross-border attacks and were routed both times. Israel is striking further into Lebanon to kill civilians and such, but this doesn't have much effect militarily. The US is trying to defuse the situation on the border by proposing deals that Hezbollah will obviously never accept.
- The US produces 30,000 artillery shells per month, of which 10,000 go to Israel. This is not enough for a war against Hezbollah, so if Israel starts shit against Hezbollah officially, then Ukraine will collapse even faster than it already is.
- On that note, Israel is now officially no longer doing a weird balancing act between Russia and Ukraine, siding fully with Ukraine and offering early-warning systems. This seems both delusional and difficult to actually achieve given the enormous hole Israel is putting itself in, and making an enemy of Russia when they're becoming more friendly with Iran does not seem like a good idea either.
- There have been rumors of waves of resignations; I'm unsure how much stock to put in them in terms of both veracity and the actual impact they're having overall.
- The Haredim in Israel are also under pressure by the government to undergo conscription; they were previously exempt. Polling suggests only ~30% of them are fine with joining the army. It's hard to tell whether this is due to desperately needing more troops, or if it's more to do with spreading the pain throughout society so as to bring it together and ensure no particular group is unaffected while another bears most of the weight.
- Yemen's blockade obviously continues, with the US continuing its definitely-sustainable strategy of firing $5 million missiles at $2000 drones. Ansarallah have also shot down three Predator drones, which is $100 million down the drain there too.
- The US seems to still be in talks about the withdrawal of forces from Iraq and possibly Syria. They may be trying to draw it out to see whether conditions might improve, but Iran will very probably keep the pressure on.
For economics, Michael Roberts is very good. On the Ukraine War, I would go so far as to say he's anti-Russia but it's a distinctly different kind to most other people, because he's both much more serious and also much more able to accept reality. So it's basically like "Well, I don't like Putin and have doubts about his commitment to any "multipolar order" but he's clearly winning and this whole Ukraine thing is a total disaster, so..." He has other Marxist economists that he interacts with and has written books with that are worth exploring.
There's, of course, Multipolarista/Geopolitical Economy, with Ben Norton making decent videos (though a pretty big chunk of the content will already be known to news mega regulars; it's a little more geared towards baby leftists but I still learn a lot of new things from his videos). Radhika Desai and Michael Hudson are unfortunately too boomerish and busy with other things to make content all day but their Geopolitical Economy Hours are good if you don't mind being a few weeks to a few months out of date with ongoing events. Hudson seems to have like 50 fucking podcasts and analysis shows that he visits where he basically says the same thing every time, so the Geopolitical Economy Hours are the best way to get new material out of him.
You could do a lot worse than the New Left Review, of course, but that's even slower than the Geopolitical Economy Hours. If you regard yourself as a Serious Intellectual Marxist, then the Historical Materialism journal is probably the place to be while reclining in your armchair, gazing at obtuse graphs of profitability, but that's even slower going.
Unfortunately, if you want something that's a) fast-updating, b) very left-focussed, and c) has relatively high-quality opinions and analysis, then... uhh... Hexbear and Lemmygrad might be one of the only places online in English that would fill that criteria. Just badger somebody smart here until they write an essay in response to you about how, idk, nuclear energy is the future / destined to fail, or that Keynes was the literal devil / an angel / a land of contrasts. I'll go first: Keynes was actually great and is the continuation of Marx into the 20th century. Hopefully somebody just got very annoyed at me and I will have an essay on Keynes in my inbox within 12 hours because I barely know anything about the guy.
They cannot imagine any political action other than voting and at this point it's purely a comfort blanket to save them from Trump.
you see this a lot on the more socdem or even vaguely socialist subreddits that I visit once every week or two to gauge reactions to ongoing events. there's a ton of genuine panic about things and basically every day there's a post like "okay, but even if you thought voting didn't do anything you'd STILL be wrong because... insert five paragraphs here" because I think people are starting to sink beneath the waves, either economically or socially, and are frantically grabbing onto anything within reach. It's a natural reaction to the threat of drowning that I can't deeply fault them for but it's very difficult to convey to people who are in that state that the levers that they're trying to pull at to change things simply aren't connected to anything anymore, and haven't been for... I mean, at least since Reagan.
If anybody's ever played or watched the Stanley Parable, it's like the ending where the protagonist is just stuck inside a facility that's about to blow up and they're trying to push buttons in a panic because some combination has to stop the sequence, and the narrator is mocking them for even trying, and it inevitably doesn't work and the facility explodes. the buttons work about as much as voting does; it makes you feel like you're doing something rather than nothing as you careen towards oblivion, because you can see no other possible method of escape. it is actually pretty remarkable how deeply the anti-communist instinct is programmed that even when these utterly desperate situations come along, many (but not all, of which many of us here are proof!) still go "no, that's impossible, actually it would be even worse than if this entire building blew up with me inside it, I'm just gonna go back to frantically pressing buttons that I am perfectly aware do nothing whatsoever." learned helplessness, I suppose.
The difference is that there'll once again be measurable, popular resistance to the fascism.
"Measurable" in the same way that the width of a needle is technically measurable with a tape measure. All Trump has to do is the same kind of fascism that Biden is doing rather than the more explicitly sadistic kinds and most important Democrats will kowtow to him. And even if Trump doesn't do the "presidential" things like bombing hundreds of children and we merely return to the 2016-2020 derangement syndrome, the best we'll get is a repeat of the 2020 protests; a couple more violent events, maybe even a police station burned down, but then a thousand peaceful candlelit vigils for the 382nd person of colour murdered by an acorn-fearing pig that week where every person marching gives $100 to a police officer and literally licks their bootleather of dog shit and still gets teargassed. Again, that's the best case scenario. In reality, by then we'll have a version of Black Lives Matter owned by white libertarian billionaires where they've created their own cryptocurrency and to resist, you should peacefully protest in the metaverse.
actively being converted into the only good kind of Zionist (dead)
may 10 fascists die for every Palestinian killed since October 7th. hell, since the wretched colonial project began a century ago
Your Thursday Briefing
We have a collection of pieces on the reaction to Victoria Nuland's resignation. Bhadrakumar is, as he usually is, fairly objective and netrual about her and her history in the region and agrees that Nuland's exit is a reflection of the collapse of the American strategy with Ukraine.^IP^ Moon of Alabama is a lot more belligerent and celebrates her resignation.^MoA^ And Naked Capitalism highlights that her career over the last four or so years has generally been of failure and backfiring, what with her visit to Niger, though obviously her ideology has succeeded magnificently in killing a LOT of people for no real reason in Ukraine, so perhaps, like with Kissinger, we shouldn't overly celebrate.^NC^
Macron has called for a "strategic leap" in thinking in Ukraine, deciding not to back down on his comments about sending NATO troops to Ukraine (which could very much be a trigger for WW3), though his officials did the Biden thing and said "No, he was actually talking about demining soldiers and trainers.".^BNE^
An Australian defence official has warned that Washington must clear regulatory impediments in AUKUS in order to catch up to Russia and China, who are outpacing the West in some areas militarily.^SCMP^
Ralph Nader has asserted that the real Gaza death toll is at least 200,000, which is entirely plausible (though I personally think that this is sort of the "guaranteed" number of deaths even if Israel's government collapsed tomorrow and aid started pouring into Gaza, due to how many people must be essentially dead from malnutrition and disease and various injuries and cannot be helped - and thus the number might be off significantly but still get the general picture correct).^NC^
Global South climate groups are significantly funded by the German government, which has been threatening to withdraw funding if those groups criticize Israel.^CCN^
Meanwhile, South Africa's Minister of International Relations has said that countries should use force to break Israel's blockade of aid entering Gaza, saying that Western countries should use their soldiers to escort trucks into Gaza under the assumption that Israel will not fire upon them, which, uh, doesn't seem especially historically accurate given a certain ship that starts with L and ends with iberty.^AN^
Chile's President, Boric, has said that Israeli companies cannot attend the 2024 aerospace FIDAE event in April.^MP^
The EU has been discussing banning Russian aluminium but has decided to not do so because it would cause shortages and raise prices. I am genuinely surprised that this has stopped them so far and don't expect it to stop them for much longer.^BNE^ Meanwhile, the EU is slapping retroactive tariffs on electric vehicles from China as they pour into the EU and reduce profits for European manufacturers.^SCMP^
Five US tech giants have been cleared in a cobalt child mining case in the DRC.^RT^
The UK's House of Lords has once again set back a bill which would allow the UK to deport migrants to Rwanda after doing so before in January, but Sunak has vowed that the circus will continue.^AN^
France has enshrined abortion in its constitution, making it the world's first country to do so.^E^
Bulgaria's Prime Minister has tabled the resignation of his government as part of an agreement made nine months prior, as the two coalition parties are fierce opponents and are rotating power between themselves.^BNE^
Croatia will soon have a general election, with the Prime Minister expressing confidence in his party's chances. This is occuring in the context of protests and motions in parliament calling for immediate re-elections, and scandals inside the current government. Opposition conservative parties are banding together to try and defeat the incumbent party.^BNE^
A Chinese-built flood control project in Poland has been recently completed, five months ahead of schedule, with the flood control system now able to withstand 300-year floods.^PD^
A Qatari waste management company has said that it's constructing a hydrogen plant in Nigeria worth $350 million, which could address waste management challenges but also generate clean electricity.^BNE^
Workers in the Turkish textile industry have been widely exploited after the earthquake over a year ago which killed tens of thousands of people and displaced millions, with most pressured into returning to work mere weeks after losing their homes, with all the mental and physical problems as a result in addition to the financial.^ET^
Egypt signed an $8 billion deal with the IMF, more than double the original $3 billion, with the Egyptian central bank simultaneously deciding to float the Egyptian pound, raising the key rate to 27.25% causing the pound to fall by more than a third against the dollar. Egypt is also obviously going to have to privatize things.^MEE^
Somalia has gained full membership of the East African Community after first applying in 2012, joining the DRC, South Sudan, Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya. This will allow them to have more trade, investment, industry, free movement of people, and so on.^AN^
Ghana's proposed LGBTQIA+ criminalization bill could lead to a loss of $3.8 billion in World Bank financing within the next five to six years, and $850 million this year alone, amid an economic crisis. The President is thus taking his time thinking about signing it.^A^
Pakistan's new Prime Minister has vowed that he will stabilize the national economy, by - you guessed it - privatizing any state institution that isn't showing growth.^PD^
Sizable lithium reserves have been discovered in Kazakhstan, consisting of over 75,000 tons or about $16 billion worth.^EN^
Sri Lanka's economy may finally be out of its gigantic rut (experiencing 6 consecutive contractions in quarters from 2022 to 2023) with recovery beginning in the second half of 2023 and now continuing into 2024. Inflation dropped dramatically over this time period from 70% to 5.9%.^PD^
China is considering providing equal social benefits for its 300 million migrant workers as the rest of the Chinese population enjoys, and wants to move those who are eligible to permanent urban residency, which produces more consumer demand than for rural residents.^SCMP^ China is also boosting its investment in science and technology by 10% this year, amounting to $52 billion. China is the second biggest spender on R&D after the US.^SCMP^ China is cutting back on one of its 2025 climate goals, with the government targeting only a "modest" cut to the amount of energy needed to power its economy this year.^CCN^
Peru's Prime Minsiter has resigned amid a scandal of an irregular hiring, which he denies ever happened.^MP^
Paraguay has reported 0% average inflation from January's values, although there have been increases in education and good and increases in the Consumer Price Index by 0.5%.^MP^
Brazilian Air Force phasing out iconic Hercules
Brazil's Air Force (FAB) is phasing out the iconic US-built Lockheed C-130 Hercules four-engined turboprop aircraft to replace it with the locally-produced Embraer KC-390 Millennium, of which a total of 19 units are expected to be delivered.
With 29 units in FAB service over the past nearly 60 years and after over 377,000 hours of flights, the historic model reaches its end at the South American country's military. On Feb. 29, 2024, the unit that went into operation at the FAB in 1964 made its last flight for the 1st Transport Group at the Galeao Air Base. The event was closed with the passage of a C-130 followed by a KC-390.
This one's a real comedy of errors.
Haiti's Prime Minister, Ariel Henry, went to Kenya on March 2nd to beg them to hurry the police squadron over to Haiti like they promised. The problem is that Kenya's highest court found that this deal was unlawful, so I'm not entirely sure if they're just gonna ignore that and send them anyway or not, but regardless.
Henry couldn't immediately return to Port-au-Prince because there's been gunfire at their airport. This gunfire didn't really do any damage but I don't think it was mean to - it feels instead like a warning shot to Henry. Due to this, Henry asked the US to provide him a military plane and soldiers so he can return to Haiti. The US has, hilariously, denied him this request, due to some nonsense about not wanting to put US soldiers in Haiti, as if that's ever stopped them.
Henry then decided that he would just land in the Dominican Republic and cross the border from there, boarding a private jet to Santo Domingo for nearly $60,000. The got three hours into the four-hour flight but were then told by air traffic controllers that they did not have permission to land in the country, meaning they instead had to land in Puerto Rico.
At this point, the Haitian people are absolutely aware of the issue that Henry is having getting back into his country and are orienting their strategy around it, creating a new slogan which translates to "Out, Out for Good". Now, a local leader (they call him a "gang leader" which idk how much stock to put into), Jimmy Cherizier, has said that Haiti will be plunged into civil war and even genocide unless Henry resigns. Thousands of inmates from prisons have been freed recently by fighters and the entire country basically continues to descend into (very potentially revolutionary) mayhem.
The US just got caught in a little bind where they said that they want Henry to "expedite the transition to an empowered and inclusive governance structure that will help prepare for a multinational security support mission and pave the way for free and fair elections", which rapidly spread throughout Haiti as essentially "The US is pressuring Henry to resign." The US then had to come out and say "No, we aren't pressuring him to resign."
Geologists rejected the Anthropocene as a new epoch of Earth's history after 15 years of debate... though perhaps not, actually.
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