visceral reaction to seeing the name "Bakhmut" again
I scoffed at the tweet as soon as I finished reading it, but I did realize I had totally forgotten about EMPs as a thing that countries can do as a military response and went into a small rabbithole about whether such an attack could actually work. I think the answer is basically "hypothetically yes, in practice very unlikely" for all the reasons listed above. I wasn't aware, for example, that an EMP strong enough to convert countries to the stone age (for a few years at least) would require a bomb that was that strong, I had just assumed that if you nuked space or the very high atmosphere with anything then you could manage it.
and also I think that even if Israel has secretly been running very high quality simulations of EMP blasts over Iran for decades and could do it, then Hezbollah and friends would still be a major problem and they could dismantle Israel as a functioning nation anyway, so Hezbollah could function as a second-strike. I guess being close to Israel does have its rare benefits (hard to nuke/EMP effectively without wiping yourself out too)
Welcome to fanfiction hour, courtesy of Pepe Escobar.
spoiler
Pepe, in a 1 million view tweet, has recently alleged that a "very high level intel source" from Asia, but not Russia or China, has informed him that Israel's initial plan to respond to Iran was to detonate a nuclear bomb over Iran to cause an EMP which would wipe out the electronics of the whole country. They sent an F-35 with its nuclear cargo flying towards Iran, but once it left Jordanian airspace, Russia proceeded to shoot down the F-35. Now, every country involved is maintaining silence about this, and Israel's lackluster response later on was essentially them scrambling to put something together once Plan A failed.
Scott Ritter has responded:
Israel would never take such a precipitous action. Not only would it provide public acknowledgment of Israeli nuclear weapons capability, thereby putting Israel in open violation of existing agreements between it and the U.S., it would also put Israel in violation of the 1968 Outer Space Treaty prohibiting the deployment and/or use of nuclear weapons in space and the Biden administration’s recent admonishments in this regard. Moreover, the scenario describes makes no sense in terms of the characterization of the weapons involved, both in terms of the alleged Russian-Israeli engagement, and what Israel would hope happens regarding EMP. This is, in every way shape and form nonsensical reporting.
I think if you're trying to assert that Israel wouldn't do something just because of a little minor nuisance to them like "laws", then that's a pretty weak argument. Not totally without merit, there are rational players still in the Israeli state somewhere or they'd be a few months deep into a losing war with Hezbollah by now, but a weak argument nonetheless.
A very strange and hyperreactionary Twitter user who I very occasionally check up on to see how far they've gone off the deep end in the last few months, but who is unfortunately pretty knowledgeable about military matters (story of our goddamn lives in this megathread; Twitter-popular communist military nerd when?), has given a set of stronger reasons why this didn't happen, and therefore what we would expect if Israel did indeed ever plan to attack Iran in a massive war scenario.
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Things have a chance of failing, especially when you're talking about the F-35. It is extremely unlikely that Israel would send a single plane to launch a single bomb for a mission which, if it were to fuck up and fail in some way, may well cause the destruction of their entire nation under a rain of missiles. If Israel were to attack Iran like this, we would see multiple planes carrying multiple nukes flying at Iran to ensure that at least one of them managed to do the task.
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This plane would need support. You would need an escort, including other planes like AWACS. You would also need to refuel. There was a US refueling plane flying in southern Iraq on that day, as the pro-Pepe people claim - but there's one there every day.
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If you were Israel, you would want to misdirect and cause chaos in Iran and the surrounding area to distract them and thus prevent them from taking countermeasures, like disconnecting vulnerable points in an EMP blast in their underground bases (which are, conveniently, at least partially shielded from EMPs). A drone attack consisting of a few drones would not be the required chaos. If anything, it would direct Iranian attention towards the sky. A terrorist attack by "ISIS" in a few Iranian cities at once would have been more effective.
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The US would know what Israel was doing, because Israel cannot act purely alone (it needs US refueling etc). Either it would force Israel to stand down (and thus the hypothetical nuke-laiden F-35 would never have flown at all), or the US would have decided to go along with it and help Israel by engaging Iraq and Syria and distracting Russia. This did not happen. The US also would have been able to detect a Russian plane taking off from an airbase to intercept the F-35 and would have either forced Israel to abort, or engage the Russian plane somehow.
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An EMP is generated by detonating a high-yield (1-10 megaton) thermonuclear bomb at high altitudes (at least 60 kilometers, but as high as 500 km). For complicated reasons, the effectiveness of EMPs depends on where you are on the planet due to variability in magnetic field strength. Magnetic field strength is higher at the poles (though there's a lot of variability; there's a less intense zone over the South Atlantic and a more intense zone over Australia despite being at about the same latitude for example). Russia and the United States are therefore, coincidentally, among the two most vulnerable countries to EMPs when just talking about magnetic field strength. Iran is somewhere in the middle of the spectrum
Because of the lack of real testing into EMPs for obvious reasons, it is unknown precisely how far up or how big the bomb would have to be to cover Iran. The EMP would also decay with distance - this means that many military sites close to the borders would be less affected if you got it a little too small, thus ensuring a massive response from Iran which would destroy Israel too. Whereas if you got it a little too big, you could easily hit many other countries (in the Middle East - the supply of much of the planet's oil!) and perhaps even Russia itself, which would possibly cause Russia to respond to Israel rapidly.
- Israel would probably deliver a nuclear payload with a Blue Sparrow missile. Assuming a 700 kg warhead capable of delivering 2 megatons, which is a reasonable guess as to the bomb size and yield you'd need to disable Iran assuming certain factors, it could just barely fit inside the missile. But no warhead of this magnitude with that relatively low weight has been reported outside of the now-discontinued Russian Topol-M. The most common nuke yield in the US arsenal is at about 500 kilotons, and the most powerful nuclear free-fall weapon in the US is the B83, at 1.2 megatons with a weight of over 1000 kilograms. So Israel would need to have done some pretty intense nuclear science to create a warhead that is both twice as strong and half as large as the most powerful US nuke. Not impossible, but there's no reason to believe it.
I read somewhere that like a third of the Ukraine spending is actually going to weaponry and money to prop up the Ukrainian government for a little longer - the rest is going to stocks and shit. And even then, there's gonna be Ukrainian oligarchs skimming off the top as much as they can. So I'm fairly unconcerned about the Ukraine money. I think Ukraine will crawl past the 2024 US elections with that plus the mobilisation bill passing so they can keep sending untrained, unarmed men and women to their deaths for another year but Russia also doesn't seem in any particular hurry to reach the Dniper.
Israel is also kinda whatever. Obviously sending a single cent to that genocidal regime should be punished with jail time at a minimum but the Israeli army fucking sucks; turns out you can attach all the cutting-edge equipment to a Zionist soldier, it doesn't make them not a coward who can only shoot unarmed civilians. The US could ultimately funnel 10 trillion dollars into Israel - you can't forge Patriot missiles out of dollar bills and duct tape, and neither can you make electrical transformers out of them if Hezbollah decides that Zionists don't deserve electricity anymore.
Taiwan is the most laughable of the three because, you know, they'd have to fight goddamn China. Same problems with attrition as with Israel and Ukraine but amped up to 11.
What's that worth, about a week of ineffectively defending against Iranian strikes at full throttle?
nightmare blunt rotation
Also, an interesting piece on Niger by Canadian Dimension:
Rift between US and Niger reveals failure of ‘counterterrorism’ in West Africa
It describes how French troops got the boot, then talks about the US and Canada:
In addition to US personnel in Niger, the American military operates a massive drone base in the country. Known as “Nigerien Air Base 201,” it is the centre of US military activities in Niger. Its construction cost $110 million and it features a 6,200-foot runway for manned and unmanned aircraft, including MQ-9 Reapers, which have a price tag of $30 million each. The base is used for surveillance activities in West and North Africa. It is the second largest US base on the continent after Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, the primary base of operations for US Africa Command (AFRICOM) in the Horn of Africa.
The US operates two additional bases in Niger: one in the capital Niamey and one in the small northeastern town of Dirkou. The Dirkou base was secret until 2018.
Immediately following the coup, US authorities were unable to use the drone base. Despite the US pressuring the CNSP to restore former President Mohamed Bazoum to power (including with a visit from then acting US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland), relations between Washington and Niamey eased in subsequent months. This rapprochement occurred even as France worked with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a regional political and economic union of 15 countries, to impose sanctions and threaten war on Niger. The military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger all withdrew from ECOWAS in January 2024.
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Amid reports of Niger’s deepening ties with Washington’s geopolitical foes Russia and Iran, Molly Phee and AFRICOM commander General Michael Langley flew to Niamey to allegedly threaten “retaliation” against the CNSP. US officials accused Niger of entering a secret agreement with Tehran to supply the Iranian government with uranium, an accusation the Nigerien authorities deny. Colonel Major Amadou Abdramane, spokesperson for the CNSP, has described the US’s accusations as reminiscent of the Bush administration’s false claims of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. He called the US military presence in Niger “profoundly unfair” and against the “aspirations and interests of the Nigerien people,” before revoking the military agreement between the two states with immediate effect.
Another government spokesperson, Insa Garba Saidou, added, “The American bases and civilian personnel cannot stay on Nigerien soil any longer.” Canadian troops also left Niger this year, albeit under murkier circumstances. Like the US, the Canadian government did not label the CNSP’s takeover as a coup until months later—December 15, in Ottawa’s case. It seems that Ottawa was hoping to maintain positive relations with the Nigerien junta in order to keep Canadian troops in the country.
For over a decade, Ottawa has spent hundreds of millions of dollars sending military training teams to Niger. A Canadian program, Operation Naberius, saw dozens of Canadian trainers dispatched to the West African country every year to train the national army. The training fell under the authority of Canadian Special Operations Forces Command (CANSOFCOM). In December 2023, the Canadian Forces released a statement asserting that Canadian forces would no longer train the Nigerien military. Even so, the Canadians would remain in the West African country for unspecified reasons. The statement simply read that, “They are conducting planning for future activities in the region including liaison and coordination with African and Western nations.”
In January, plans changed. As Ottawa Citizen reporter David Pugliese writes: “Canadian special forces have retreated on plans to continue on in Niger and have pulled out remaining commandos from that nation. The decision comes as Niger’s military leaders move towards more co-operation with Russia.” CANSOFCOM issued a statement: “We can confirm that, as of January 2024, CANSOFCOM no longer has personnel operating in Niger and that personnel have returned to Canada.” No information was given about the reason for the withdrawal, just as one month earlier, no reason was given as to why Canada had decided to keep its troops in Niger.
The Canadian role in West Africa was ostensibly a counterterrorism effort, but like the US and European presence it was meant to bolster, Canada failed to bring security or development to the region. In fact, the tangible results of this Western-led “War on Terror” have been catastrophic. Over the last two decades, deaths in Islamist militant attacks in the Sahel have risen a shocking 50,000 percent.
A Nigerien security analyst stated: “This security cooperation [between the US and Niger] did not live up to the expectations of Nigeriens—all the massacres committed by the jihadists were carried out while the Americans were here.” Even so, General Langley claimed in March that “USAFRICOM needs to stay in West Africa… to limit the spread of terrorism across the region and beyond.”
Despite the claims of US, Canadian, and European officials, the people of West Africa know the grim realities of Western military intervention and economic domination. That is why so many West African states are forging an alternative path—most recently Senegal, whose President-elect Diomaye Faye has supported “left-wing pan-Africanism” and the end of France’s “economic stranglehold” on his country.
Africanews: West African Sahel is becoming a drug smuggling corridor, UN warns, as seizures skyrocket
[hexatlas tags: Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, Mauritania]
In 2022, 1,466 kilograms, (3,232 pounds), of cocaine were seized in Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Niger compared to an average of 13 kilograms (28.7 pounds) between 2013 and 2020, said the report from the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime.
The location of the Sahel, lying south of the Sahara desert and running from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, makes it a strategic transit point for the increasing amount of cocaine produced in South America and destined for Europe. The trafficking has detrimental impacts for both peace and health, locally and globally, said Amado Philip de Andrés, UNODC Regional Representative in West and Central Africa.
"The involvement of various armed groups in drug trafficking continues to undermine peace and stability in the region," said Andrés. The report said the drug trade provides financial resources to armed groups in the Sahel, where Islamic extremist networks have flourished as the region struggles with a recent spate of coups.
The report finds that drug trafficking continues to provide financial resources to armed groups in the region, including Plateforme des mouvements du 14 juin 2014 d’Alger (Plateforme) and Coordination des Mouvements de l’Azawad (CMA) in Mali, enabling them to sustain their involvement in conflict, notably through the purchase of weapons.
Michael Roberts: Modi and the rise of the billionaire Raj
[hexatlas tags: india, china]
Another great piece by Roberts, this time on India, given the ongoing elections. He goes over the BJP's likely strong upcoming victory, and then:
How is it possible for the BJP and Modi to be so popular? First, because of the bulk of the BJP’s political support comes from the rural and more backward areas of this huge country who have not benefited from the strident rise of Indian capitalism in the cities. These areas are bulwarks of Hindu nationalism, incentivised by fear of muslims.
The second reason is the total failure over the decades of the main capitalist party and standard bearer of Indian independence, the Congress party, to deliver better living standards and conditions for the hundreds of millions, not only in the country but in the city slums. Congress appears to millions as the party of the establishment controlled by a family dynasty (the Gandhis), while the BJP appears to many as the populist party of the forgotten people.
The Modi government makes much of its handouts to the poorest. Welfare schemes have been expanded such as providing free grain to 800 million of India’s poorest, and a monthly stipend of 1,250 rupees ($16; £12) to women from low-income families paid into half a billion new bank accounts, along with free gas connection in millions of houses for the poor and over 40 million toilets constructed.
But in reality, the BJP and the Modi government is fully integrated and supportive of Indian capital, especially big capital. PM Modi has made the economy a major part of his election pitch, pledging at a rally last year to lift the country’s economy “to the top position in the world” should he win a third term. The Modi’s government’s key policy is Viksit Bharat 2047—a plan to make India a developed nation by 2047, 100 years after independence, something China is targeting for 2030.
Roberts spends the rest of the article describing how the idea that India will ever catch up to, let alone exceed China is comical and deeply unserious:
- India's GDP growth figures are greatly exaggerated. Additionally, China and India had about the same GDP per capita in 1990, but now China's is six times higher. The gap between China and India is not narrowing, it's widening.
- China's Human Development Index has improved from 0.48 in 1990 to 0.77 in 2021 (for context, the US's is 0.92). India's has gone from 0.43 to 0.63.
- India's income inequality - in some measures greater than when under the British Empire - dampen economic growth for the whole society, as wealth concentrates and stagnates in the bank accounts of oligarchs rather than being dispersed throughout society. Labor creates value, not entrepeneurs.
- Healthcare is not available for many and impoverishes people due to how expensive it is. Infant mortality in the poorest Indian states is worse than in sub-Saharan Africa. Government spending on health is only 1-2% of GDP.
- India has a third of the world's malnourished children. 74% of the population cannot afford healthy food.
- The average income in India is being dramatically outclassed by China. Income growth is well below claimed GDP growth.
- Where income growth is taking place at high speeds tends to be in the financial and real estate sectors, but these don't employ that many people relatively speaking. Labour force participation has fallen under Modi and less than half of the adult working population is employed.
- Most Indians are employed in small businesses where labour rights are ignored.
- India's manufacturing sector post-pandemic has been weak. Dreams that India might become the next world-factory like China now that there is political pressure (as well as capitalists seeking to minimize labor costs) and that China's manufacturing will plummet are almost certainly not going to happen so long as the Chinese state wills it and increases planning and state control over corporations.
- Infrastructure is not nearly as good as in China. China invested 6.5% of its GDP in infrastructure development (pre-COVID at least), whereas India invests just 4.5%.
- 78% of Indians are literate (and only 62% of Indian women), while 97% of Chinese people are literate. China has many more people in vocational education despite having similar population sizes.
- Productivity growth has been falling under Modi. Overall, labor productivity is an average of 4% in India while in China, it's 6.3%. This is because in China, underemployed peasants can move to the cities to get manufacturing jobs due to state planning of labor and infrastructure building. India's urbanisation rate is much behind and employment growth is very slow.
- Groundwater provides 85% of India's drinking water, and groundwater is thus declining at one of the fastest rates in the world. Predictions are that the situation will be critical within 20 years.
Overall, India will probably fall into a middle income trap, with mass exploitation of a billion or more people by the top 10%, while China continues its meteoric rise under intelligent state planning even despite Western sanctions pressure. India's BJP has no real solutions for the fundamental problems facing them. They are doing the classic neoliberal/fascist things - privatisation, cuts in subsidies, more regressive taxes, blaming powerless minorities for the country's problems, etc - and these make the situation worse, not better.
If you go to your Settings and then to the Blocks tab, it should all be there. Users, instances, and communities
I'm a little more inclined to support Armenia than Azerbaijan because of Azerbaijan getting arms from Israel but Armenia's leadership seems to pick the exact wrong thing to do in every political situation, up to and including forging ties with the United States while surrounded with anti-US powers like Iran and Russia, and seems generally hellbent on self-destruction.
I am generally not a person who is like "well, both sides are bad and the workers of these countries need to rise up to form an international proletariat revolutionary various other buzzwords chungus force to overthrow the bourgeoisie!! not hamas nor the IDF!! not Tehran nor Tel Aviv!!! not Ukraine nor Russia!!!!" in most geopolitical conflicts because it's the leftist equivalent of saying "thoughts and prayers" most of the time, but in Armenia-Azerbaijan and also in Sudan and a couple of other places, I just have to throw in the towel