SeventyTwoTrillion

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[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 28 points 1 year ago (2 children)

really is the worst fucking subcontinent. just considering all the wars and genocides that have resulted from Europe and Europeans, you're looking at hundreds of millions needlessly dead and billions more in misery. thank god they're rapidly sliding into total irrelevancy, hopefully in a century or two people won't give a shit about whatever conflicts the feudal clans of the descendants of the current leadership are getting up to and humanity will have left them behind to go on space habitats or something. I might be on the sinking ship but I'll be laughing the whole way down

[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 19 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

yep, the hostage rescue stuff is purely for domestic consumption and propaganda and has no bearing on the military situation, it's purely civilian

Israel not only does not value their own citizens, they are perfectly content to murder them as readily as they murder Palestinians, as October 7th proved, so they actually have negative value (as in, it would be better for the Israeli state if they killed all the hostages rather than attempt to rescue them from a military standpoint, as rescues are risky, but they have to try anyway to boost citizen morale). if the hostages aren't being held in the tunnel network, there is also no military value in rescuing them (AKA finding and destroying tunnels on the way out).

luckily, Israel will cease to exist in the near-to-medium future, as per the following reasoning: Israel will never accept a deal with Hamas because there is no "reasonable" Zionist position remaining; every single person in the Knesset desires the total annihilation of every single person in the Gaza Strip and will not accept a lesser outcome. therefore, we can conclude that all the ceasefire stuff is for domestic consumption and propaganda too. therefore, as the Resistance is stronger than Israel (as the situation in northern Israel and the Red Sea proves), it is logically inevitable that this is Israel's terminal war and we should prepare for a post-Israel Middle East, and hope that it isn't a massively irradiated future.

Punished Mercouris arc

[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 36 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

I think the original intention of getting a bunch of hostages was to either a) force a deal with Israel for a hostage swap before a war could start (almost certainly wasn't going to happen but the best case scenario), or b) use them to lure the IOF into Gaza where Hamas could destroy them via a guerrilla attrition battle; so a win/win situation militarily (very obviously not in terms of the civilian death toll).

We ended up in universe b. There was a lot of "Oh no, I support Palestine but Hamas doesn't know what they've done by doing October 7th... oh no..." at the very beginning, as if Hamas spent two decades and had the help of the smartest military tacticians alive to make a gigantic tunnel complex under Gaza just for the fun of it. Luring the IOF into trying to occupy Gaza and then attriting them via tunnel war while Hezbollah and friends also destroyed Israeli vehicles, men, and infrastructure was the entire idea here. It's not as if Sinwar thought that the fucking Zionists, the modern incarnation of the German Nazis who had stuck over 2 million of his countrymen into the most advanced concentration camp ever conceived by humanity, were gonna perhaps lay off on the airstrikes and killing if he delivered those Nazis a catastrophic embarrassment.

There was also the possibility of using them to cause internal dissent inside Israel ("your government is killing your own citizenry!") and there have been protests over it, but that hasn't ended up being the most productive angle. Internal dissent is still an ongoing pressure point and Hezbollah has had major success in provoking it up north, but it seems that Israelis value their own personal security that the government provides, given their vulnerable position near a bunch of very angry anti-Israeli people in other countries, regardless of whether their government also murders them from time to time.

It's only when that security is well and truly destroyed (as in up north) when Israeli society really disintegrates and they all start to gradually turn on each other in lieu of an external enemy that they can reasonably harm, as fascists often do. An ideology explicitly focused on taking what isn't yours, even if it requires some of the most barbaric atrocities that people are capable of, tends to fall apart once there is insufficient force to take external territory anymore and the only thing left is to fight over what territory is already conquered, even as that territory is shrinking. It's the same process that has brought down every empire and settler project thus far in humanity's history. First the expansion, then the attempt at consolidation once further expansion is impossible or untenable, then the fragmentation into a dozen smaller states and those states battling it out for control over the original empire's territory.

[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 38 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (3 children)

So that's, what, about 6 hostages rescued over 8 months? Maybe they'll get a couple more hostages out before all the bombings murder the rest of them, though by then Hamas will have probably captured more Israeli soldiers

[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 46 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

endlessly entertaining when the media is like "it is completely unacceptable for our sacred politicians to be THREATENED with VIOLENCE in this way as an attempt to SILENCE OPINIONS in our beloved DEMOCRACY" after racist wankers get sprayed with things that are unequivocally harmless. meanwhile anti-Ukrainian or anti-Israeli politicians that merely point out that a genocide is occurring against Palestine are getting removed from parties, being given death threats, and in the case of Slovakia, being fucking shot on the street

right-wingers are demonstrably weak little cowards. if the worst thing socialists were threatened with were milkshakes then we'd be 50 years into global communism, but instead we get assassinated and bombed and gassed. and the left is still doing great work to bring down empires and lift people from poverty

[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

yes, I don't think people who talk about "clearing the tunnels" really have a good idea of the absolute engineering marvel that they are and how much preparation has gone into them. It would be easy to dismiss them as like, "this is what a couple hundred malnourished Hamas militants could scrape together in a couple years" if you're only going by Israeli propaganda, but no - in fact, this might be the single highest achievement in guerrilla warfare ever.

and then consider what Hezbollah and Ansarallah and fucking Iran have probably constructed underneath their territory to protect from airstrikes, with even more resources and people to build them, and one starts to wonder if the combined might of Western airforces and even the Israeli nuclear arsenal could actually defeat the Resistance.

[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 56 points 1 year ago (2 children)

For months I've been talking about how Israel is attempting, and failing, to substitute Zionist morale-raising crimes against humanity against Palestinians and Tiktok dances for military victories, and it isn't working. This is one of the better articles I've seen explaining it. For people who only really observe the war on the timespan of the day-to-day, it's difficult to determine to what extent Hezbollah and Hamas are really doing anything. But for those who are capable of seeing the broader trends over months, it's really remarkable how much progress has been made in the dismantling of the Zionist entity.

Personally, while I don't think that Israel prefers having actions that would make Goebbels faint broadcast to the world due to the loss in soft power, the constant stream of atrocities does still benefit them by drowning out more positive news. For every time you see a Hamas soldier blow up a tank or a Hezbollah soldier blow up a small base, you see 20 videos of schools full of children being obliterated by bombing raids. The issue for Israel is that murdering thousands of babies does not, surprisingly, have any military advantage. The people inside Gaza aren't going to give up because you do it, and even if they did give up, what then? Even if they wanted to betray Hamas, do you think they know where the tunnels are any more than the Israelis do?

So Israel's stuck in this rut: they cannot achieve meaningful military victories, so they substitute it with propaganda for the domestic audience of Palestinians being tortured (which subsequently makes it to people who were born with even a shred of empathy and they become dismayed, disheartened, and worst of all: doomers). Meanwhile, the Resistance factions are prying Israel apart, applying both internal and external pressure, but this is a subtler and longer-term process.

It's fascinatingly boring how Hezbollah did this. For months their videos have been methodically mundane, blowing up this communication tower, that building, that listening station. It seemed like a bunch of nothing, but it adds up. Hezbollah had a list of 'Israel's' eyes and ears in the north and has spent months methodically eye poking them, like Odysseus and the Cyclops. Now—however big the IOF might be—they're effectively blinded.

As Hezbollah opens bigger and bigger gaps in 'Israel's' air defenses, they can send bigger and more missiles in, with better and better penetration. For 'Israel', this attrition is a compounding problem. Their air defenses are a connected system and the network is increasingly returning 404. Take for example, the destruction of the $230 million dollar SKYDEW blimp/spy balloon. This balloon is designed to detect low-flying drones and missiles, especially important as this is the vector most used by the Resistance. SKYDEW can stay up much longer (and relatively cheaper) than planes, and can 'see' much further than ground-based systems. It was also placed in a highly strategic area that let them cover attacks from Syria, Iraq and—to a lesser degree—from Hezbollah, specifically on the port of Haifa. But now the party's over. Look at the balloon now:

SKYDEW is now as shriveled and useless as Joe Biden's nutsack. This is a big loss, which also signals a big breakdown. As the SKYDEW 'Target Card' (from Hezbollah intelligence) says, it was “protected by an electronic monitoring and jamming system against drones and UAVs (Drone Dome),” and “secured by three layers of missile interception systems: Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Hetz [Arrow].” That all got sliced through like the layers of an onion, leaving only Zionist tears behind.

...

Hezbollah of course, has counted the north. They have a list of 'Israeli' military targets and they go through them one by one. Take, for example, the Mount Meron Air Surveillance Base, one of the two main bases in 'Israel'. This is what the IOF says about the base, in a 2016 article by Maariv (via translation):

One of the senior officials of the Air Force adds: "The air control system is crucial for the operational capability of the Air Force. Its main duty is to protect the occupied airspace. Through the control system, we activate all capabilities to protect the sky, including helicopters, aircraft, missiles, and other classified systems."

And this is what Hezbollah intelligence released, as they were bombing it:

Firstly, the Meron Air Surveillance Base is located on the summit of Mount Jarmaq ["Mount Meron"] in northern occupied Palestine, the highest peak in occupied Palestine. Meron Base is the sole center for administration, surveillance, and air control in the northern part of the usurping entity and there is no major alternative to it. It is one of two main bases in the entire usurping entity: "Meron" in the north, and the second being "Mitzpe Ramon" in the south.

The Meron Base is responsible for organizing, coordinating, and managing all air operations towards Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Cyprus, and the northern part of the eastern basin of the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, this base is a main center for electronic jamming operations in the aforementioned directions and is staffed by a large number of elite officers and soldiers of the zionist forces.

Now the Meron base can barely defend itself, let alone the region. 'Israel' has responded by assassinating Hezbollah (and Iranian) leaders, but the Resistance just names missiles after the martyrs and send more. This is a battle of attrition and Hezbollah is paying attention while 'Israel' is mindlessly lashing out. 'Israel' is completely distracted by a genocide in the south, and has lost the battle for the north. After months of this boring de-administrative work, Hezbollah has finally gotten to the good stuff. 'Israel's' northern air defenses today are like a ragged old mosquito net that the dog chased the cat through. It's full of holes, and big ones. Hezbollah can increasingly fire at will, with increasingly accurate weapons.

...

'Israel' has nothing worth calling an air-defense in the north anymore. The Iron Dome is done. Hezbollah can fire at will, and has for every single day for seven months now. Iraqi Resistance missiles are flying right over them, towards Haifa. Iran can overwhelm the entire national system whenever it wants. 'Israel' can still offend the conscience, but they're missile defenseless now. Even Hamas is hitting them, from within traumatized Gaza. It's open season, and the 'settlers' know it.

'Israeli' settlers openly bemoan their unsettled state all over the Hebrew press. Some settlers were so Pyrrhicly pissed they threatened to secede from the entire abomi-nation and form the new State of Galilee. As The Jerusalem Post (the ethnic cleanser's preferred real estate supplement) said,

The straw that broke the camel's back was the prime minister's answer at the cabinet meeting to a question by Benny Gantz, as reported by N12. Gantz wondered if the residents would return to their homes on September 1, for the start of the school year, and Netanyahu replied, "What's the worst that will happen if they return a few months after September 1?"

This is of course the worst that can happen. The entire premise of 'Israel' is that they can do whatever they want and fuck everyone else. If the Iron Dome doesn't work, 'Israel' doesn't work, and the Iron Dome doesn't work. It's the Iron Sieve now. Holy warriors have poked it full of holes. This is a huge problem because the Iron Dome is not just 'Israel's' physical defense mechanism, it's their psychological defense mechanism. It's what makes the whole colonial project believable, that they can piss off everyone in the region and suffer no consequences. Belief in the 'Iron Dome' is belief in 'Israel' and neither is believable anymore. Thus the northern 'settlements' have emptied out and they're not coming back anytime soon.

[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 45 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (5 children)

pumping water into the tunnels mathematically cannot work at the rates that Israel could feasibly do it as Hamas has already figured out the problem of getting rid of water that accumulates naturally via infiltration from the sea and rainfall. the secondary effect would be to destroy Gaza's aquifer, but again, this would take several years of constant pumping to make it too saline to be undrinkable (and even then, rainfall would help to combat this over time). I suspect Israel knew both of those facts but was eating sufficient shit that they had to look like they were doing something for the domestic audience

why the bunker busters didn't work is a little unclear to me but I suspect it's a combination of subterranean reinforcement of some kind (these clearly aren't just holes in dirt), knowing where to drop the bombs to actually have an effect is near-impossible, and the sheer number of tunnels makes getting rid of a meaningful number of them very difficult and expensive. finding tunnels underground with geological surveying methods is still pretty tough even if the tunnels are relatively shallow (<10 meters) and even if you already know where they are, so you're essentially limited to soldiers scouting around and trying to find them, which must be an absolute nightmare in an urban environment where your enemy has more initimate knowledge of their surroundings, the civilians are unfriendly to you and so probably won't act as informants, and when most of your training was spent shooting children and thus not having the slightest clue what to do when your enemy has any weapon more advanced than a rock

add on that Hamas can always just dig more tunnels while you're trying to destroy them (not every person in Hamas will be fighting all the time, some are clearly there only to create explosives and dig tunnels) and I think Israel could occupy Gaza for a decade and still not clear even a majority of the tunnels. whatever figure they're trotting out about how 294% of the tunnels in X region are dismantled is copium of the highest order, if it's as high as 20% in any single part of Gaza I'd be utterly shocked

But the point is, it does make sense: it's a way of building up irrational attitudes of submission to authority, and group cohesion behind leadership elements — in fact, it's training in irrational jingoism. That's also a feature of competitive sports. I think if you look closely at these things, I think, typically, they do have functions, and that's why energy is devoted to supporting them and creating a basis for them and advertisers are willing to pay for them and so on.

this is the only part I particularly agree with, the rest is pretty half-hearted analysis by somebody in an intellectual circle trying to justify their superiority to the rubes, whether that's the intention or not.

this isn't to say that sports are always bad anymore than, say, nationalism is always bad. the idea of "I was born in a place surrounded by fans of this team, and thus I must also support this team" is a pretty transferable mentality to geopolitics. it's very anti-internationalist and keeps you believing that you have more in common with your billionaires than the working class in the countries your empire is routinely destroying. but sports can also be a positive force for building camaraderie so I wouldn't go as far as the reddit-esque critique of "sportsball, amiright?"

[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 60 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Amal Saad, scholar of Hezbollah:

Hizbullah's latest escalation along Israel's northern border is a marked departure from prior flare-ups that have occurred since October 8. This stage transcends merely responding to Israeli attacks and restoring deterrence; it involves conveying new messages and strategies. Hizbullah's deployment of a squadron of drones and the launching of heavy rockets, which set the Galilee on fire on Monday, must be seen in the context of Biden's cease-fire proposal last Friday. While the party didn't take the initiative seriously, seeing it as an electoral ploy, it's nonetheless trying to improve Hamas' negotiating position in the talks with Israel.

Hizbullah has maintained from the start that its actions across the border with Israel constitute a "solidarity front," but this recent escalation goes beyond attempts to relieve pressure on Gaza by diverting Israel's military capabilities. Hizbullah is now taking on the role of [diplomatic] force multiplier by creating new realities in preparation for "the day after" the war. Alongside this role, Hizbullah is also sending very clear messages to Israel regarding the Lebanese front. Today's attack on the Israeli town of Hurfeish, which left 11 Israelis wounded, was a direct response to Israeli threats to invade Lebanon in the coming days/weeks, and Israel's mobilisation of 50k troops along the border with Lebanon.

Hizbullah seems to be betting that all of these threats and manoeuvres amount to little more than sabre-rattling because it knows Israel is in a much weaker position than it has ever been to launch such a war. This weakness is due in part to the demonstration of Hizbullah's force (it has reportedly used less than 5% of its arsenal so far). It is also partly due to Hizbullah's unprecedented establishment of a buffer zone inside Israel and the forced displacement of tens of thousands of Israeli settlers in northern Israel, around 40% of whom are reportedly not planning to return to their homes once the war ends. Hizbullah is exploiting the strained relations between the northern settlers and the Israeli government, which are rooted in accusations of the state's neglect for this "peripheral" region. This aligns with Hizbullah's longstanding approach of undermining Israel through both internal discord ("implosion") and external attacks ("explosion").

[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 5 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Ukraine was making enough electricity for a while after its grid got bombed the first time around to export it

going all the way back to WW1, British merchants were selling transport ships to other nations while Britain was becoming increasingly desperate and on the verge of collapse from lack of imports

capitalits during war have never acted logically in the defense of their homeland if they perceive that they can simply move away, they're drawn only by profit

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