Ranvier

joined 2 years ago
[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 13 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (2 children)

Exactly, I think because races have been so close lately, and the probabilities are ending up close to 50% often, people sometimes unintentionally conflate them with poll numbers. 53% to 46% would be a massive poll lead. For probabilities though in this situation it's the same as saying they have even odds of winning. Look at those massive 95% confidence intervals, the race is in a statistical dead heat. It's kind of remarkable how steady it has been despite all the wild events that have happened.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 29 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

I have another good one very applicable to the teamsters union, Biden and democrats saved their pension fund.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/dec/14/kevin-brady/bidens-36-billion-to-save-teamsters-fund-from-inso/

Pensions that 360,000 retired teamster union workers were relying on.

I really doubt Republicans would have lifted a finger. Probably would have just laughed as one of the largest unions in America collapsed.

Heck here's some more good union news from Democrats. The new regulations and pro labor leadership of the nlrb have helped increase union election success rate to 74%, it's highest level in at least 15 years. It brought back over 8,000 workers that had been unjustly fired from their work places as retaliation for unionizing activities.

The contrast with Republicans couldn't be starker. Project 2025 recommends firing general counsel and leadership of the NLRB "day one," purging existing civil servants so they can hire their own anti union sycophants, and passing new regulations to make it easier to dissolve unions and harder to form them.

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/project-2025-would-undo-the-nlrbs-progress-on-protecting-workers-right-to-organize/

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 22 points 1 year ago (1 children)

He knows that Biden and democratic policies have been good to unions, heck the teamsters pension fund was even bailed out by them in 2022, preventing large pension cuts to 350,000 union workers.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/dec/14/kevin-brady/bidens-36-billion-to-save-teamsters-fund-from-inso/

Going to be a real leopard ate my face moment if Trump wins and fills the national labor board with anti union officials again.

It's especially inexplicable because in straw polls Biden has a clear lead in support among teamster members.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/11/us/politics/teamsters-trump-biden.html

“But you know,” Mr. Palmer added, “you can pick up a snake and play with it, but if you play with it enough, it’s going to bite you eventually.”

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 16 points 1 year ago

It does bring in some things for democrats, like really obvious attack ad ideas. Just play JD Vance's own comments about Trump, over and over again.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

That could certainly be the case, I was trying to get at that with the second part of the comment. I'll link the poll below directly for people where that can be seen easier. I wish we had some more people who already could poll better though. I was also hoping that Trump's support might drop some with some of the other choices though, with some moving to the not sure category when a different democrat was proposed. Unfortunately it was looking like the "not sure" people are mostly coming from the previously Biden category, with Trump staying locked in at 40 like he is with Biden, or even higher for some of them. Michelle Obama was the only to get that to drop, and only to 39%.

The "wouldn't vote category" also dropped by a percent or 2 for some of them, so a few voters at least might be pulled of the sideline with a new candidate if they can manage to keep all the Biden voters. It was pretty impressive for Michelle Obama again, lowering from 8% to 4% not voting for the poll-takers in the case of Michelle Obama. She seems to pull her extra support over Biden from the current "won't vote" and third party voters. Some of the other potentials also peeled off a percent or two from the third party voters too into the not sure category. These are the people that really need to be convinced if we're going to beat Trump, and some of them at least seem to at least think about it when a new democrat is proposed.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/only-michelle-obama-bests-trump-alternative-biden-2024

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 14 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Is it okay if I still vote for both of those things at once? Because she's been shockingly incompetent in cases that have nothing to do with Trump too.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/aileen-cannon-judge-trump-documents-case-made-multiple-errors-earlier-rcna98207

It's obvious she's a Trump's stooge though. First supreme court nomination by Trump if he wins for sure. No surer way to fail to the top of a fascist kelptocratic system then by doing favors for the boss.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 11 points 1 year ago

I envision the higher courts slapping it down a few times, then an eventual appeal up to the supreme court, who then if four justices are willing to go along with it, put the whole case on ice until next Summer while they argue this. Just like they did with the January 6th trial and presidential immunity rulings.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 17 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (3 children)

Cannon's ruling is going to be appealed. If it gets appealed all the way to the supreme court, again (and Clarence Thomas has specifically asked for this in one of his prior rulings), and the supreme court holds with them, then any charges brought by a special counsel in any case are gone. Her ruling invalidates special counsels in general. The office that is pressing charges against Hunter Biden will no longer exist.

The scary part about this is it means that if Trump were to win he would have every excuse and cover from the judiciary to hand pick his own justice department attorney hires to go after people with no semblance of independence. After all, special counsels aren't even allowed to be used anymore. So you're of course right, it does fit into a larger fascist plant, and I certainly don't mean to imply that it doesn't or this isn't all for Trump's benefit.

I just wanted to point out that the current move would also be able to get Hunter Biden off the hook on the off chance that it gets anyone blindly supporting Trump immunity to stop and think for a second that maybe this isn't actually a good thing (since a lot of them seem to have some pretty extreme beliefs about Hunter Biden going to jail).

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

I agree in general, though in this case the presidential primary was back in March. Republicans held their own caucus then, and democrats held their own primary election. So not quite as bad as it seems. https://www.ksmu.org/news/2024-01-30/missouris-presidential-primary-process-changed-here-is-what-to-know

The state run primary for all the other offices is August though.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 3 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (2 children)

I know Michelle Obama doesn't want to run, but like, please Michelle? Would you think about it? Things are getting pretty desperate here. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/03/michelle-obama-would-beat-trump/74289680007/

If you really don't want to do it, you could just win handily and then resign the first day and hand it off to someone else.

I'm also surprised at how much worse some Biden alternates do in the polling given people's reported desire for a switch, but maybe in time they'd have a higher support ceiling than Biden as people get more familiar with them.

[–] Ranvier@sopuli.xyz 37 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Supreme Court will get around to this right away I'm sure. Like, next June. Super fast.

view more: ‹ prev next ›