FriendlyMaple221

Abstract
Conservation benefits from dietary change are commonly assessed without accounting for different conservation objectives. By representing fine-scale habitat and landscape change within a dynamic land-system model, we assess how a partial or full transition to healthier diets would affect indicators across the ‘Nature for Nature’ and ‘Nature for Society’ conservation value perspectives. We find that most diet-related conservation benefits are already achieved by a partial shift to healthier diets. This is because, particularly in many countries in tropical Africa and Asia, adopting healthier diets would mainly involve substituting staple foods with more varied plant-based foods rather than replacing resource-intensive livestock products. Conservation action in line with the Global Biodiversity Framework, by contrast, most consistently improves outcomes across both value perspectives, even under current demand trends, showing that spatial planning is central for decoupling conservation outcomes from food demand. However, any progress towards healthier diets not only lowers greenhouse gas emissions but also reduces barriers to effective conservation, such as higher food prices and imports.

Abstract
Within moderation, wildfires play a crucial role in enhancing ecological synergies. The escalating severity and duration of wildfires generate a local and national state of crisis. Wildfires exponentially and simultaneously worsen local and global climate change. This paper will review the literature on the positive feedback loop demonstrated between climate change and Canadian wildfires. Four primary factors influence wildfire activity: weather and climate, ignition agents, fuel, and human activities. Wildfires deteriorate physical and chemical properties of nationwide topography, soil system, and hydrological cycle. The vegetation destroyed by wildfires further exacerbates climate change. This paper encompasses the natural and strategic control measures implemented to regulate and remediate wildfire activity. Ecosystems may naturally facilitate both climate change and wildfire mediation and prevention if biodiversity is preserved. Wildfire management expenses, which corresponds with climate change management expenses, ranged from $800 million to $1.4 billion annually over the previous decade. The perpetuating advancement in wildfire severity presents unpredictability and difficulty to anticipate future costs (Government of Canada, 2024a). Direct or indirect management is implemented based on the magnitude of the wildfire.

Abstract
Contrary to much of the conventional wisdom, taking stronger actions on climate change may enhance economic growth, even as conventionally measured, but even more so, in terms of societal well-being. We identify the flaws in the models and analyses which contend that there must be a trade-off and explain the mechanisms and dynamic forces which have the potential to enhance growth. Critically, there are numerous market failures that result in suboptimal economic performance. We explain how addressing climate change reduces the bite of these failures and enhances the incentives and political will to address them. We identify packages of policies that alleviate market failures, enhance growth, and reduce carbon emissions. Finally, we argue that the green transition is coming at a time when, both because of persistent deficiencies of aggregate demand and advances in technology, including artificial intelligence and robotization, the macroeconomic opportunity costs of strong climate actions may be especially low and the benefits particularly high.

Abstract
The aim of this perspective is to argue that carbon pricing is not unjust. Two important dimensions of justice are distributive and procedural (sometimes called “participatory”) justice. In terms of distributive justice, it is argued that carbon pricing can be made distributionally just through revenue recycling and that it should be expected that even neutral reductions in emissions will generate progressive benefits, both internationally and regionally. In terms of procedural justice, it is argued that carbon pricing is in principle compatible with any procedure; however, there is also a particular morally justifiable procedure, the Citizens’ Assembly, which has been implemented in Ireland on this precise question and has generated broad agreement on carbon pricing. It is suggested that this morally matters because such groups are like “ideal advisors” that offer morally important advice. Finally, an independent objection is offered to some ambitious alternatives to carbon pricing like Green New Deal-type frameworks, frameworks that aim to simultaneously tackle multiple social challenges. The objection is that these will take too long to work in a climate context, both to develop and to iterate.

Abstract
Many countries have recently announced the ambition to reach net-zero emissions targets. Here we explore the climate and energy transition impacts of the following strategies using the IMAGE integrated assessment model: 1) implementing the pledged 2030 targets and net-zero targets, 2) aligning the 2030 emission targets with the net-zero targets, 3) broadening the coalition of net-zero countries, and 4) strengthening the net-zero pledges by bringing them forward in time. The results illustrate that each step could accelerate the low-carbon transition by building on existing elements in international climate policy. Our study shows that the gap between a continuation of current emission trends and a Paris-aligned 1.5 °C target can be reduced by about 90% by 2100. This provides a pathway to bring the Paris Agreement climate goals within reach.

Abstract
To be able to fulfil the Paris Climate Agreement and keep global warming with reasonable confidence at a maximum of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, Germany must set an end to all greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. At the core of this task is the switch to 100% renewables across all sectors on the same time horizon. Conventional technologies fueled by fossil and nuclear energies are, according to the vast majority of current cost calculations, energetically inefficient, too expensive, and too slow in expansion to be able to deliver a substantial contribution to rapid climate protection. We present the first comprehensive energy scenario that shows the way to 100% renewable energy for all energy sectors by 2030. The result of the calculations is a cost-effective energy system that is compatible with the German share of necessary greenhouse gas reduction. This study shows a target system of generation, conversion, and storage technologies that can achieve the transformation to 100% renewable energy in all energy sectors—electricity, heat, and mobility—in time and at competitive costs below the costs of the current system. Moreover, we demonstrate the huge cost effect that arises if southern Germany renounces its onshore wind resources and find that this would substantially increase the need for high-voltage direct-current transmission capacity.

Abstract
Indonesia offers a dramatic opportunity to contribute to tackling climate change by deploying natural climate solutions (NCS), increasing carbon sequestration and storage through the protection, improved management, and restoration of drylands, peatlands, and mangrove ecosystems. Here, we estimate Indonesia’s NCS mitigation opportunity for the first time using national datasets. We calculated the maximum NCS mitigation potential extent using datasets of annual national land cover, peat soil, and critical lands. We collated a national emissions factor database for each pathway, calculated from a meta-analysis, recent publications from our team, and available literature. The maximum NCS mitigation potential in 2030 is 1.3 ± 0.04 GtCO2e yr−1, based on the historical baseline period from 2009–2019. This maximum NCS potential is double Indonesia’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) target from the forestry and other land use sector. Of this potential opportunity, 77% comes from wetland ecosystems. Peatlands have the largest NCS mitigation potential (960 ± 15.4 MtCO2e yr−1 or 71.5 MgCO2e ha−1 yr−1) among all other ecosystems. Mangroves provide a smaller total potential (41.1 ± 1.4 MtCO2e yr−1) but have a much higher mitigation density (12.2 MgCO2e ha−1 yr−1) compared to dryland ecosystems (2.9 MgCO2e ha−1 yr−1). Therefore, protecting, managing, and restoring Indonesia’s wetlands is key to achieving the country’s emissions reduction target by 2030. The results of this study can be used to inform conservation programs and national climate policy to prioritize wetlands and other land sector initiatives to fulfill Indonesia’s NDC by 2030, while simultaneously providing additional co-benefits and contributing to COVID-19 recovery and economic sustainability.

Abstract
This study uses TIMES model to assess Indonesia’s power sector’s carbon price impact from 2020 to 2050 and the price needed by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement NDC target. Four scenarios are used to model the impact of carbon price up to 2050: no carbon price, Indonesia’s current price of USD 2.02/tCO2e, ICPF middle- and high-income countries, USD 50/tCO2e and USD 75/tCO2e. Four price scenarios—10, 25, 35, and 150 USD/tCO2e —are added to better understand the carbon price’s effects. As carbon prices rise, installed capacity and power generation will shift to lower-carbon technology. Ultracritical coal, gas-fired, solar, geothermal, and hydropower plants will replace subcritical coal. Investment, fixed, and variable costs would exceed BaU with a higher carbon price. 2.02 to 25 USD/tCO2e can start the coal-to-gas switch but not significantly change the generation profile. The generation will change significantly above 35 USD/tCO2e. Carbon emissions peak lower with rising carbon prices. USD 25 carbon price reduces emissions significantly; a carbon price below that is costly and ineffective. Indonesian Law No. 16 of 2016 ratified the Paris Agreement NDC, committing Indonesia to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 29% by 2030 or 41% with international assistance. Energy sector emissions need to decrease by 11% for a 29 percent reduction and 14% for a 41 percent reduction. A 29% reduction requires USD 39.65/tCO2e carbon price, while a 41% reduction requires USD 43.78/tCO2e. These prices are still within the reasonable ICPF price limit for Indonesia to approach the middle-income country price floor.

Abstract
Recent evidence shows that carbon emissions in China are likely to peak ahead of 2030. However, the social and economic impacts of such an early carbon peak have rarely been assessed. Here we focus on the economic costs and health benefits of different carbon mitigation pathways, considering both possible socio-economic futures and varying ambitions of climate policies. We find that an early peak before 2030 in line with the 1.5 °C target could avoid ~118,000 and ~614,000 PM2.5 attributable deaths under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1, in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Under the 2 °C target, carbon mitigation costs could be more than offset by health co-benefits in 2050, bringing a net benefit of $393–$3,017 billion (in 2017 USD value). This study not only provides insight into potential health benefits of an early peak in China, but also suggests that similar benefits may result from more ambitious climate targets in other countries.

Abstract
Ideal carbon tax policy is internationally coordinated, fully internalizes externalities, redistributes revenues to those harmed, and is politically acceptable, generating predictable market signals. Since nonideal circumstances rarely allow all these conditions to be met, moral issues arise. This paper surveys some of the work in moral philosophy responding to several of these issues. First, it discusses the moral drivers for estimates of the social cost of carbon. Second, it explains how national self-interest can block climate action and suggests international policies—carbon border tax adjustments and carbon clubs—that can help address these concerns. Third, it introduces some of the social science literature about the political acceptability of carbon taxes before addressing a couple common public concerns about carbon taxes. Finally, it introduces four carbon revenue usage options, arguing that redistributive and climate compensation measures are most morally justified.

Abstract
The continued rise in global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions challenges international climate policy, particularly the goals of the Paris Agreement. This study forecasts emissions through 2030 for the eleven highest-emitting nations–China, the United States, India, Russia, Japan, Iran, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, South Korea, and Germany–while assessing their progress toward Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Using data from 1990 to 2023, we apply a robust data pipeline comprised of six machine learning models and sequential squeeze feature selection incorporating eleven economic, industrial, and energy consumption variables. We have modelled the scenario with an average prediction accuracy of 96.21%. Results indicate that Russia is on track to exceed its reduction targets, while Germany and the United States will fall slightly short. China, India, Japan, Canada, South Korea, and Indonesia are projected to miss their commitments by significant margins. At the same time, Iran and Saudi Arabia are expected to increase emissions rather than reduce them. These findings highlight the need for strengthened energy efficiency policies, expanded renewable energy adoption, enhanced carbon pricing mechanisms, and stricter regulatory enforcement. Emerging economies require international collaboration and investment to support low-carbon transitions. This study provides a data-driven assessment of emission trajectories, emphasizing the urgency of coordinated global action, technological innovation, and adaptive policy measures to align emissions with the 1.5ºC warming threshold. This work represents a novel integration of multivariate machine learning modelling, data-driven feature selection, and policy-oriented emission forecasts, establishing new methodological and empirical benchmarks in climate analytics.