I don't know of anyone seriously making the argument that LLMs would spontaneously develop independent reasoning. There's a huge amount of working currently being put into making them develop independent reasoning. Agentic workflows, chain of thought built into training data, that sort of thing. That's what those further investments you mention are involved in accomplishing.
If current AI players are about to get wrecked, I doubt it's the end for AI development. Perhaps it will switch to the areas that can actually make money - like Level 4 vehicles and robotics.
That's not a "bubble bursting", that's just ordinary churn. Companies come and go all the time, especially in cutting-edge fields like AI.
Yes, but recent advances have really rubbed it in our faces in ways that are a lot harder to deny. Humans haven't become fundamentally more or less predictable over time but recent advances have shown how predictable we are.