There is no EU_Economics subs and barely any economics subs at all here so just posting this here as I thought it was insightful
I understand all the emotions. But I really think we need to put all things in perspective.
First facts
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EU have about 200 Billion EUR trade surplus on Goods with US
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EU have about 150 Billion EUR trade deficit on services with US
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Europe owns 3.6 Trillion of US assets via FDI and US owns 3.9 Trillion of European assets
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Europe invested 200 billion in US in 2024 and US invested 90 billion in Europe. Europe includes Uk, CH too
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big supplies of Energy products come from US, Norway and others to EU after Russia was eliminated as option
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US president believes in Tariffs since 1990s. There is no way to negotiate a zero tariff. White House is trying to make it a viable policy
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US negotiation is driven by „willing to burn down the village“ approach and doesn’t seek win win.
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after all the discussions -: China got 30%, Japan 15%, EU 15% . These countries have trade surplus with US
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UK got 10% even when they have trade deficit with US. In addition they have quota for cars
What EU needs
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maintain access to US goods market while it expands its other trade routes
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minimize the tariffs as much as possible
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keep US interested in NATO while Defence capabilities are increased in Europe
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Digital Services from US while EU companies try to develop alternatives
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secure energy supply as Russia is not an option
As far as what I have read , following is agreed
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EU will continue to use US for oil & gas. This revenue will be approx 250 B USD per year for 3 years. This is not new revenue , EU already buys a lot from US. So we should see this as additional of about 50 B per year. EDIT -: US is currently exporting 80 B USD stuff to Europe. I think getting to 250B is almost impossible even if Russia share is completely replaced. So seems even this commitment cannot be met.
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EU will invest in US assets via FDI (600 B). This was not mentioned at all by UvdL in press conference. There needs to be more details about it. I think it’s simply an extrapolation of EU already was planning to do in coming years. But make a good headline. Same like Japan, they are not saying same things when you talk to officials.
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EU will get 15% tariff on 75% exports to US (excludes Pharma and metals)
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For now Pharma will continue to have 15% but if US adopts a global policy (in future) on Pharma then that will override
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Zero Tarifs from both sides on Aircraft , Chips and semi conductor equipment
I know people are mainly upset about investment commitment and purchase projections.
- But buying energy products is not that bad deal. In the end EU needs to be buy oil & gas from someone. What are the options outside Europe ? (US, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Middle East ) … if a good chunk come from US and Norway then it’s not really that bad.
Personally I think EU got best they could. The focus should be on reducing dependence on US for Defence and Digital. I am sure in backroom talks, this was the blackmail.
For now -: European companies might be able to compete in US because all imports have higher tariffs now. US companies will be more competitive but that’s something was the plan anyways.
What EU citizens can do (if they are upset) ?
Use your wallet -:
Support more Euroepan services. Specially Financial Services. European brokers , European fund houses (UBS, Amundi, Xtrackers etc). Support more European social media , email and messaging services.
Example -: Use WEBG instead of VWCE. Invest more in Europe than in USA when making your investment portfolio and not 100% in S&P 500.
Edit -: this video shows discrepancies already in the deal. As usual wait for the final agreement because in the world for twitter politics, devil is in the details :)
https://youtu.be/JvTpbIxFneg
https://www.euronews.com/health/2025/07/28/eu-us-trade-deal-leaves-future-of-pharma-tariffs-uncertain
Edit -: based on latest details, it seems Pharma tariffs are capped to 15% irrespective of what happens with global tariffs on Pharma. Although subject to Trump keeping his word
https://www.reddit.com/r/EU_Economics/comments/1mb8o5q/comment/n5kh5bl/
cut the shit and try making a laptop that doesn’t suck