Danterious

joined 2 years ago
MODERATOR OF
[–] Danterious@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 11 months ago (4 children)

Does it have to be online? If not then you can try LibreOffice Impress. Otherwise not sure.

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[–] Danterious@lemmy.dbzer0.com -1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Wait is this the kind of event people have been warning about that can wipe out the internet? or is this not that serious?

Edit: After a bit of research it might not be that big of a deal.

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[–] Danterious@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 1 year ago

It was one of the first lemmy based meme phenomenon to blow up. Along with that guy that was trying to hold in their shit for 3 days.

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[–] Danterious@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 1 year ago

Oh I didn't see that before. Ok I find the joke funny.

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[–] Danterious@lemmy.dbzer0.com -3 points 1 year ago (3 children)

But enjoy your antifa money 🤣🤣🤣

You know you are on an anarchist instance right?

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[–] Danterious@lemmy.dbzer0.com 13 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

I think people should stick to using more specific/descriptive negative language like creepy and vile against them instead of using more generic language like weird.

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[–] Danterious@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 1 year ago

Hey I'm sorta curious, do you have any insight on what the protesters plan on doing next? Especially with the army declaring an interim government and all that.

Like is there some plan on how to make sure the movement doesn't die down or get co-opted like other movements have?

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[–] Danterious@lemmy.dbzer0.com 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

As an example below you can see a spike in the usage of the word "weird" recently that probably is related to how people are now calling republicans weird.

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[–] Danterious@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Just because someone has more skills, experience or information doesn't mean that person has or should have authority over others. There are even situations where having more of those things can become a hindrance because it biases the person to doing things a certain way when someone from an outside perspective could handle the situation in a different, possibly better way.

It still should be on the individual to decide whether they want to defer to the experts depending on the situation. The reason why people can come to collective decisions and rely on other people's knowledge is because they have shared purpose and trust each other to be working to similar goals. That is what makes people's choices voluntary.

I don't believe we should uphold hierarchies in any form instead we should help teach people to reason through when to trust other people's judgements which doesn't rely on defaulting to an authority.

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[–] Danterious@lemmy.dbzer0.com 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

By next year governments should have clear signs on how accurate this model is if food production and industrial output decrease by a significant amount which should also shock the economy.

I say governments should know by next year not the public because looking at the sources for the data it seems like there is a two year delay between the most current data and the present. We will probably be left in the dark until the collapse has already started.

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21
Flipped Forecasts (lemmy.dbzer0.com)
submitted 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) by Danterious@lemmy.dbzer0.com to c/newcommunities@lemmy.world
 

This is a community where we take something true today, flip the statement, and then create a semi-plausible story about how the world changes from one place to the other.

!flipped_forecasts@lemmy.dbzer0.com

 

Statement: Donald Trump isn't the President of the USA.

Flipped Statement: In the future, Donald Trump is the President of the USA.

F.Y.I: I don't want this to happen and it isn't a prediction of the future but this is my thought process on how Donald Trump could become president and I think it is good to understand how it might happen.

2024

Jan - March

It is the beginning of the year and Trump is beginning to face multiple legal challenges. They tackle both his eligibility to run for Republican primaries in a few states and his many accounts of criminal behavior.

Donald Trump and his team are pushing for delays and stop gaps wherever they can to stop any possible backlash.

The cases that question his eligibility to run for primaries are ruled out by the Supreme Court on the basis that states can't unilaterally decide whether Trump broke the 14th Amendment and it needs to be handled by Congress.

A few of his more serious cases are to be pushed back until after the election, but the Stormy Daniels case and others are still able to work through.

It doesn't make much of a difference amongst his base though as they see this as political persecution.

Hunter Biden also begins his legal struggle on Jan 11 and due to all the scrutiny that Trump has been having Republicans push through a negative ruling on his tax evasion case to bolster their rhetoric on Joe Biden being involved in shady things as well.

All of this is happening as a lot of internal and foreign actors begin building up their social media campaigns where they advocate for/against candidates and try to influence people to view the world as getting better or worse.

April - June

Things are still bad for the average consumer as food and housing prices are still high relative to wages causing people to be more dissatisfied than they have ever been before. Joe Biden's poll ratings are going down.

In response to this Joe Biden has been going on a spree of good deeds and encouraging news agencies to publish news stories about the things that he is doing. He is also doing more symbolic gestures as well like going to more strikes and advocating for companies to change.

Social media at this point is fraught with battles of outrage and people trying to influence other people.

It has been slowly intensifying over the past few months and news has essentially diluted the space with media pointing out that Trump is a fascist however most people have become normalized to this kind of rhetoric and consider it normal political jockeying.

China and Russia have been colluding and see this as probably their best chance of dethroning the USA from being the sole hegemon because they believe that if Trump loses this election there would be more safeguards put in place.

In response, they have decided to help stoke tensions worldwide to put more strain on the USA as the world's defender.

July - September

This is where social media campaigns have hit their peak and all platforms are rife with people advocating for/against Trump or Biden.

Most people have started to become burnt out on the constant arguing and have either taken active efforts to avoid any political information or lessened their social media usage.

In anticipation of another "election steal" many die-hard Trump fans create plans to set up encampments where they watch election booths to feel certain that there isn't any tampering going on.

This also is intended to frighten anyone who might've wanted to go vote in person that wasn't certain already.

By this point, a new war is being heavily covered by Western media which adds to a general sense of unease that tends to help people who present themselves as strongmen get into positions of power.

October - December

As election day approaches die-hard Trump fans enact their plans of setting up camp just outside of where they are legally allowed to be and call what they are doing a protest.

Most police don't engage with these people because of biased perspectives and justify their decision on the fact that what they are doing is technically legal.

Left-leaning protesters see this as unfair and decide to engage in a counter-protest. Things start getting heated between the two groups and now the police are starting to intervene to try and calm down the tensions.

All of this discourages wide swaths of the population from going to the polls in person and instead most decide to vote through the mail or just not vote at all.

All of this interference leads to Donald Trump being voted in as president.

 

Hey everyone. This is a community for forecasting how the future might differ from today.

The basic format is that you have to choose something true today and flip the statement so that it isn't true in the future.

Example:

Statement: Earth has more water than land.

Flipped Statement: In the future Earth doesn't have more water than land.

After you do that you have to create a plausible story of how the flipped statement becomes true in the future. The story can be in any format like a short story or timeline. It cannot just be a reason.

Other than that let your imaginations run wild and have fun.

P.S. Make sure to follow the rules in the sidebar.

 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.dbzer0.com/post/11252604

I found this link aggregator that someone made for a personal project and they had an exciting idea for a sorting algorithm whose basic principle is the following:

  1. Upvotes show you more links from other people who have upvoted that content
  2. Downvotes show you fewer links from other people who have upvoted that content

I thought the idea was interesting and wondered if something similar could be implemented in the fediverse.

They currently don't have plans of open-sourcing their work which is fine but I think it shouldn't be too hard to try and replicate something similar here right?

They have the option to try this out in guest mode where you don't have to sign in, but it seems to be giving me relevant content after upvoting only 3 times.

There is more information on their website if you guys are interested.

Edit: Changed title to something more informative

 

I found this link aggregator that someone made for a personal project and they had an exciting idea for a sorting algorithm whose basic principle is the following:

  1. Upvotes show you more links from other people who have upvoted that content
  2. Downvotes show you fewer links from other people who have upvoted that content

I thought the idea was interesting and wondered if something similar could be implemented in the fediverse.

They currently don't have plans of open-sourcing their work which is fine but I think it shouldn't be too hard to try and replicate something similar here right?

They have the option to try this out in guest mode where you don't have to sign in, but it seems to be giving me relevant content after upvoting only 3 times.

There is more information on their website if you guys are interested.

Edit: Changed title to something more informative.

 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.dbzer0.com/post/11168397

F.Y.I: This is a thought experiment, Not a prediction, that I am trying out and I would like feedback. I got the idea from a forecasting book where you choose something true today and flip it so it isn't true 10 years from now plus giving the reason why (the book's name was imaginable). I am trying to do that and include a more detailed timeline of events.

Statement: Most Social Media platforms are funded through advertisements.

Flipped Statement: In ten years most social media platforms aren't funded through advertisements.

2024

  • Economic pressures cause more social media companies to push for a greater return on investment which in turn causes them to push for more ads, higher premiums, and more actively blocking loopholes.

  • The fediverse continues to grow in numbers and more organizations start using the platform as their main base of operations because it gives them more control over how they want to present themselves and a more fine-grained look into user data which they in turn use to optimize their content.

  • The US presidential election causes a lot of turmoil on social media platforms as there becomes a more active effort to push people's opinions in one way or another causing some burnout and pushing people to either move to alternative platforms where there is less active interference or a general downturn in social media use in general.

2025-2026

  • An increase in data breaches worldwide causes a renewed effort to make self-hosting data servers cheaper and more accessible for customers which leads to some development in personal hosting of data.

  • Social media platforms that mainly run through creator-based content begin to start changing terms of service to extract more revenue from the creators, such as changes to how much of a cut the platform gets when a creator is being sponsored among other things. This leads to a backlash among creators who in response put in more effort to move into paid subscription services like Nebula.

  • Some drama happens between For-profit companies joining the fediverse and some servers colluding with such companies which in turn causes some major user pushback and a shift in the user distribution among the servers. This also causes servers to more explicitly enshrine an attitude against for-profit companies in their code of ethics. Servers are still run on donations but donating is more encouraged than before.

2027-2028

  • There is an ongoing resurgence of indie creators who start gaining traction and decide to start moving to alternative platforms such as Nebula to gain a more direct stream of revenue. This in turn draws some attention away from mainstream social media platforms. These alternative platforms also allow creators to start setting some of their videos to be free to watch so that the platform itself gets more traction and viewers.

  • Software and hardware developers are creating better networking solutions so the burden of traffic becomes less of a problem over time allowing for hosting services to handle higher traffic more cheaply.

  • Companies who are trying to streamline their business to gain more profits start trying to find where they can make budget cuts. After seeing smaller businesses succeed with more direct social media advertising and AI technology has advanced a bit decided to try and automate the promotion of products at the right time and right place using fake user accounts. As a consequence, they significantly reduce their spending on direct advertising on social media sites.

  • After more election shenanigans happen but this time more supercharged than before there is a push for more walled-off communities where it is easier to have relations with users and identify bad actors. This second surge affects the admins of the fediverse, who after dealing with some interference before decide to take a more cautious approach in accepting new users and setting up ways of monitoring the effects of the choices they make (the admins' choices not users') PS: This is assuming US elections still take place at this time but even if it doesn't I believe these techniques might still become more common anyways.

2029-2030

  • The user experience of the fediverse has improved a lot as there are more features for users, it is easier to moderate, and hosting servers are much cheaper. The fediverse would now be considered semi-mainstream.

  • Due to shifts in marketing spending, mainstream social media companies decide to pivot their funding strategy and instead tap into their massive pre-existing databases, advanced algorithms, and knowledge of social phenomenons to produce more directly profitable products for other companies like creating their automated promotion bots, advising on distribution techniques based on detailed user data, etc.

  • Some creator-driven platforms have started to implement a format where they make all of their videos free to watch and it is now a platform where you subscribe with how much you want to subscribe and the profit is distributed based on what the viewers watch.

This isn't necessarily the timeframe that I think things will happen just the most convenient numbers I could think of.

Also, does anyone know of any communities where they make narrative predictions of the future similar to this? I've heard of prediction markets where there are numeric forecasts and reasons why you make certain predictions but they usually don't flesh out their reasoning steps that happen from point A to point B which doesn't help give a more fleshed-out understanding of the world.

 

F.Y.I: This is a thought experiment, Not a prediction, that I am trying out and I would like feedback. I got the idea from a forecasting book where you choose something true today and flip it so it isn't true 10 years from now plus giving the reason why (the book's name was imaginable). I am trying to do that and include a more detailed timeline of events.

Statement: Most Social Media platforms are funded through advertisements.

Flipped Statement: In ten years most social media platforms aren't funded through advertisements.

2024

  • Economic pressures cause more social media companies to push for a greater return on investment which in turn causes them to push for more ads, higher premiums, and more actively blocking loopholes.

  • The fediverse continues to grow in numbers and more organizations start using the platform as their main base of operations because it gives them more control over how they want to present themselves and a more fine-grained look into user data which they in turn use to optimize their content.

  • The US presidential election causes a lot of turmoil on social media platforms as there becomes a more active effort to push people's opinions in one way or another causing some burnout and pushing people to either move to alternative platforms where there is less active interference or a general downturn in social media use in general.

2025-2026

  • An increase in data breaches worldwide causes a renewed effort to make self-hosting data servers cheaper and more accessible for customers which leads to some development in personal hosting of data.

  • Social media platforms that mainly run through creator-based content begin to start changing terms of service to extract more revenue from the creators, such as changes to how much of a cut the platform gets when a creator is being sponsored among other things. This leads to a backlash among creators who in response put in more effort to move into paid subscription services like Nebula.

  • Some drama happens between For-profit companies joining the fediverse and some servers colluding with such companies which in turn causes some major user pushback and a shift in the user distribution among the servers. This also causes servers to more explicitly enshrine an attitude against for-profit companies in their code of ethics. Servers are still run on donations but donating is more encouraged than before.

2027-2028

  • There is an ongoing resurgence of indie creators who start gaining traction and decide to start moving to alternative platforms such as Nebula to gain a more direct stream of revenue. This in turn draws some attention away from mainstream social media platforms. These alternative platforms also allow creators to start setting some of their videos to be free to watch so that the platform itself gets more traction and viewers.

  • Software and hardware developers are creating better networking solutions so the burden of traffic becomes less of a problem over time allowing for hosting services to handle higher traffic more cheaply.

  • Companies who are trying to streamline their business to gain more profits start trying to find where they can make budget cuts. After seeing smaller businesses succeed with more direct social media advertising and AI technology has advanced a bit decided to try and automate the promotion of products at the right time and right place using fake user accounts. As a consequence, they significantly reduce their spending on direct advertising on social media sites.

  • After more election shenanigans happen but this time more supercharged than before there is a push for more walled-off communities where it is easier to have relations with users and identify bad actors. This second surge affects the admins of the fediverse, who after dealing with some interference before decide to take a more cautious approach in accepting new users and setting up ways of monitoring the effects of the choices they make (the admins' choices not users') PS: This is assuming US elections still take place at this time but even if it doesn't I believe these techniques might still become more common anyways.

2029-2030

  • The user experience of the fediverse has improved a lot as there are more features for users, it is easier to moderate, and hosting servers are much cheaper. The fediverse would now be considered semi-mainstream.

  • Due to shifts in marketing spending, mainstream social media companies decide to pivot their funding strategy and instead tap into their massive pre-existing databases, advanced algorithms, and knowledge of social phenomenons to produce more directly profitable products for other companies like creating their automated promotion bots, advising on distribution techniques based on detailed user data, etc.

  • Some creator-driven platforms have started to implement a format where they make all of their videos free to watch and it is now a platform where you subscribe with how much you want to subscribe and the profit is distributed based on what the viewers watch.

This isn't necessarily the timeframe that I think things will happen just the most convenient numbers I could think of.

Also, does anyone know of any communities where they make narrative predictions of the future similar to this? I've heard of prediction markets where there are numeric forecasts and reasons why you make certain predictions but they usually don't flesh out their reasoning steps that happen from point A to point B which doesn't help give a more fleshed-out understanding of the world.

42
Informal Lemmy U.N.? (lemmy.dbzer0.com)
submitted 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) by Danterious@lemmy.dbzer0.com to c/fediverse@lemmy.ml
 

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.dbzer0.com/post/2491711

I was wondering if there was a community where admins of different instances got together and chat in general about decisions for how they run their instances.

Sort of like an informal U.N. for Lemmy admins.

11
Informal Lemmy U.N.? (lemmy.dbzer0.com)
submitted 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) by Danterious@lemmy.dbzer0.com to c/fediverse@lemmy.world
 

I was wondering if there was a community where admins of different instances got together and chat in general about decisions for how they run their instances.

Sort of like an informal U.N. for Lemmy admins.

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