If 50% of voters picking 1 person out of 4 is "most," then "most" people also voted for 2 or 3 out of 4. I shouldn't have to point out that you can't really have two exclusive groups both claiming "most."
I'm using CES so heavily because they're the ones with good data and write-ups, but I can dump more data from other sources if you're interested.
A different interactive simulation where RCV usually agrees with the minority. Notice that it also fails to even be resolvable with certain opinions and so doesn't get calculated at all.
RCV can hide second choices when first choices win or make it to the finals. Arguing that's the correct result under RCV is circular reasoning, and the results fail to show the true support of the other candidates, which is important for future elections, where people judge who to vote for based on past results.
2023 Chicago Mayor election, multiple voting method polling data. Yes, the sampling method produced bias in the responses. The takeaway is not found in absolute, but comparative results.
Higher dimensional election modeling.
The spoiler rate under RCV is not insignificant, and at the very least, difficult to understand. Your voting method should not be difficult to understand. Do you want even more claims of a stolen election? That's how you get even more claims of a stolen election.
The incentive to vote for one person also incentivizes you to cast a safety vote. You can't have it both ways. Either the system will encourage people to vote for a candidate they don't like, or it will encourage people to only vote their favorite. It can't do both.
Also, can you show me those nonsensical spacial models under approval? I tried to create one and failed. If you create one, can you show the results for all four methods with that same candidate set?
Anyway, I don't think we're going to be having a productive conversation beyond this. I sincerely hope that RCV continues succeeding, despite its flawed nature, I think we can both degree it's better than our current system. I hope both approval and RCV take over the country and are forced into an ultimate showdown.
Cheers!
Yeah I mean, voting data is messy. You're trying very hard to interpret the data in only the way you want to. You're the one who claims 50% picking 1 out of 4 doesn't conform to expectations. I think that's perfectly acceptable. If you look at the Democratic Primary Polling Data again, you'll find that, in practice, RCV, Approval, and Score generally agree on the overall results. You seem to think that voters choosing only some candidates is somehow a failure of the system. How many do you want them to pick before it's an acceptable number?
I made sure not to make claims about the sources unless they were true. It would be ridiculous to do otherwise. You're taking claims I made elsewhere and applying them to things I didn't point to. I have read and understood the entirety of every link I shared. I'm not going to be posting things I can't explain. Different sources have different purposes, to dive into to details if each (which do not always agree with each other) would be further complicating an already nitpicky argument. You asked for more variation in sources, I provided more variation in sources. What would have been an acceptable but not excessive number?
You claimed you easily created nonsensical models, but have failed to produce your examples. You're the one who has to provide proof of your claims, because just like you said, I can't prove a negative. I already provided a graphical example of RCV misbehaving. Can you provide an example of the others?
You keep claiming we have plenty of data on RCV but then don't reference any of it. Typically election officials don't release the ballots, so it's impossible to actually say what kind of election happened under RCV. The spoiler rate estimates for RCV elections are all over the place.
You've got the definition of a spoiler wrong. Spoiler candidates are a losing candidate that changes the winner of the race without a change in voter preferences. If you let voter opinions change, anything you try to say about the voting system is virtually meaningless.
Anyway dude, you're clearly not interested in having a productive conversation. The only reason I'm replying is to make sure at least some of your assumptions and wrong claims are publicly countered, but at this point I really am going to say goodbye. I get the feeling that you'd somehow argue I didn't address half your points but also gave a wall of text.
Say what you want, I'm done. I again wish you and the RCV crowd well (it's not a terrible system) and hope we have some epic national stage showdown in the future.