I have a small gut tingle telling me some Republicans understand the transphobia isn't a winning angle and they're gonna end up split over how much to go after transphobia. The average American is transphobic more in a ignorant hog way where they see trans people as a joke, not some scary insidious peril threatening the stability of society. The more direct genocidal stuff comes across as needless preoccupation to most of the chuds I know in my daily life.
Only the most online chuds care. Like the types listening to Daily Wire podcasts. The average conservarive has to have what a trans person even is explained to them. You ask the average hog american to describe a trans woman and they'll describe a drag queen. They seriously can't conjure up the imagination to know who their enemies are supposed to be. They're pure drooling reaction and don't see trans people as structural, or they don't care enough.
Also trans people are still so rare in daily society (less than 1% and even less are open about it) that it's hard to point to any as an other. This just doesn't work for riling up reactionary votes the same way as something like racism or hatred of poor people