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What no one at COP28 wanted to say out loud: Prepare for 1.5 degrees
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One could make the argument that we're at 1.5 degrees
this post was submitted on 16 Dec 2023
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I don't think you could, we are currently around 1° C in increase since the pre-industrial period. Unless you mean that were already on an almost unavoidable path to 1.5c, which could be true.
A significant portion of this year was spent above the 1.5 degree mark. Any argument that we are not already there hinges on one of a couple of ideas:
- This year was an anomaly and next year will be cooler
- In order for it to count we need to see a sustained global temperature for something like 3-5 years
It may be that the first point is true but it's looking more and more unlikely. The second point is useful as far as building a scientific consensus goes, but does not reflect the reality. Put another way, when looking backwards you wouldn't say that the era of 1.5 degree warming began at the end of that 3-5 years, you would say it began at the beginning.
I'd actually lean back in big relief if it's just 1.5 °C by 2100!
I just hope that the younger generation remembers who got us into this 1.5 degree clusterfuck and act accordingly when shit hits the wasteland.