Ukraine

Here's a not entirely implausible scenario:

1. Putin 'wins' in Ukraine.
2. Trump wins or 'wins' the election.
3. President Trump (again) says he won't protect European NATO allies.
4. NATO is effectively dead. The US nuclear umbrella no longer protects Europe.
5. An emboldened Putin, engages in constant provocations and distractions.
6. Some EU members are forced to drastically increase defense spending. Others come to the conclusion that acquiring a nuclear deterrent is now a necessity. Populist Putin verstehers win elections in some European countries, in part thanks to support from an emboldened Kremlin, promising to reduce defense spending. The EU project effectively dies. Europe is divided.
7. A large part of the EU now kowtows to China.
8. Because Europe is weakened, Putin continues to cause provocations and a miscalculation is made OR Russia deliberately invades the Suwalki gap (which is already indefensible now), thereby connect Kaliningrad with Russia. Putin's allies have regularly suggested that this is part of the plan.
9. Europe is now at war with Russia. The US does not intervene, because of Trump or his isolationist successor.
10. Europe is weakened from decades of underinvestment, weapons caches are depleted having supported Ukraine, Europe hasn't had enough time (or will) to properly re-arm, Europe is divided, it is not clear who will protect who.
11. Certain European countries feel existentially threatened. They have no conventional military response to Russian aggression. Russia is making steady gains.
12. Some European countries still have a non-conventional military response.
13. A nuclear war starts in Europe.
14. Most importantly for American readers, this significantly raises fuel prices.
15. Half the population blames a long dead Biden and soy based diets.

"Just this one thing, because it's rightfully mine, but then you have nothing to fear from me."

--Putin in Ukraine, 2014

"Just this one thing, because it's rightfully mine, but then you have nothing to fear from me."

--Putin in Ukraine 2022

"Just this one thing, because it's rightfully mine, but then you have nothing to fear from me."

--Putin at your doorstep, near future

A lot of people either never saw or have forgotten the statements and clues that Russia does not plan to stop.

They've repeatedly said they want to take back the Baltic countries. That's why there's an American unit stationed there now. Invasion plans included Moldova. Every border country except Hungary has reported Russian attempts to create civil unrest.

It's obvious the Russians think they can avoid an article 5 declaration by having a country "voluntarily" leave NATO and join CSTO. This was in fact their plan for Ukraine, just with the EU instead. Their puppet got elected with massive amounts of misinformation, a vulnerable incumbent (his corruption was exposed), and promises to keep the country in the process of joining the EU. It was the reversal of joining the EU to instead sign treaties with Russia that triggered the Maidan. And then Putin reacted with Crimea and the Donbas region.

That's also part of a very old Russian playbook meant to keep countries from joining NATO. Because NATO doesn't allow countries to join if they have territorial disputes going on. That's why so many Eastern European countries have territorial disputes with Russian aligned separatists.

That is the truth. It's damn important that we do keep support going.

That's not a risk, that's a certainty.

It would be fucking unsurprisingly depressing if pootin can just hold the breath for longer than "democratic governments".

But they still can't join NATO tho.