this post was submitted on 29 Nov 2023
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Chicago Bears

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Summary:
1.Bad teams winning is good.
2.If two teams have the same record, the team with a lower strength of schedule (SOS) gets the earlier pick. So, teams on Bears or Panthers schedule losing is good.

Current draft order and SOS, via Tankathon

TEAMS WITH BYE WEEKS: Bears (4-8), Bills (6-6), Giants (4-8), Raiders (5-7), Ravens (9-3), Vikings (6-6)

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Seahawks (6-5) at Cowboys (8-3)
Preferred result = Seahawks win. This game seems pretty irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. But, the Seahawks winning would increase the Cards SOS, helping our pick/Panthers pick win a potential tiebreaker with the Cardinals first rounder in the event that one of us/Panthers end with the same record as the Cards.

SUNDAY EARLY SLOT

Chargers (4-7) at Patriots (2-9)
Preferred result = Patriots win. Pats are currently the 1.03. Them winning would would increase the Panthers chance of being the 1.01 and put the Patriots only a game behind the Bears.

Lions (8-3) at Saints (5-6)
Preferred result = Saints. This game is a bit of a double edged sword. There are a lot of 4-win teams, so our SOS being as low as possible helps with tie breakers.

Falcons (5-6) at Jets (4-7)
Preferred result = Jets win. A Falcons loss lowers the Panthers SOS.

Cardinals (2-10) at Steelers (7-4)
Preferred result = Cardinals win. Cards are at the 1.02 now, so a win would be another step towards securing the 1.01. Also puts them just a game behind the Bears in draft order.

Colts (6-5) at Titans (4-7)
Preferred result = Titans win. Bears and Tits are both sitting at 4 wins, so a Titans win would move them later than the Bears in draft order.

Dolphins (8-3) at Commanders (4-8)
Preferred result = Commanders win. Same reason as above, Commies are at 4 wins so a W would help move them later than the Bears.

Broncos (6-5) at Houston (6-5)
Preferred result = Broncos win. Another game that seems pretty irrelevant since both teams are in playoff contention. The Texans played the Panthers earlier this year, so powering the Panthers’ SOS would be a bit helpful.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON SLOT

Panthers (1-10) at Buccaneers (4-7)
Preferred result = Bucs win. Another step towards us securing the 1.01.

49ers (8-3) at Eagles (10-1)
Preferred result = 49ers win. Another game between playoff teams, so nothing huge at stake here. A 49ers win increases the Cards SOS, helping with any potential tiebreakers.

Browns (7-4) at Rams (5-6)
Preferred result = Rams win. Same reason as above, increasing Cards SOS seems like the best outcome here.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Chiefs (8-3) at GB (5-6)
Preferred result = Chiefs win. Helps lower our SOS.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Bengals (5-6) at Jaguars (8-3)
Preferred result = Jags win. I couldn’t find any reason that one team winning would help/hurt us, but I like the Jags so I’m rooting for them.

top 17 comments
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[–] Best-Presence-4165@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Excellent job with researching this all.

[–] PitchBlac@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Fuck all of this. Playoffs bound or bust

[–] splintersmaster@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Can't argue with that despite how realistic you may think the chances of a wildcard are but.... No shame.onnhedging your bets either.

[–] Oooopieceofcandy@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago (2 children)

I appreciate the effort in the write up, but can we get one of these for a potential playoff berth (however unlikely that is) and not act like total losers for two seasons in a row? I’m here to root for my team to WIN.

[–] szy91@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Lol. For real. I'm not watching football to root for better picks. I wanna see wins, always.

[–] Chazz1717@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

We can stop acting like losers when we stop being losers. Best way to stop being losers? Add talent through the draft

[–] thefluscaboose@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

holy shit, i didn't even notice the bye was this week, what the fuck.

i guess things really slip your mind when the team is so bad, lmao.

[–] Oooopieceofcandy@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Can we get one of these for a potential playoff berth (however unlikely that is) and not act like total losers for two seasons in a row? I’m here to root for my team to WIN.

[–] MewTupac@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/chicago-bears-nfl-playoff-picture.html

This is fun to mess around with. It has us at a 2% chance to make the playoffs as of right now, 70% if we win out. The rest of our schedule is not too bad.

Packers, Saints, Rams, Vikings, and Seahawks are at 5 or 6 wins and are the main teams fighting for the 6 and 7 seed, the Cowboys are close to locking down the 5 seed

[–] alexandriaprissy@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Now up to 74 for us winning out

[–] Best-Presence-4165@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago (4 children)

I think we probably want the Packers to win. SOS is important, but the Packers are only one game ahead of us, so they are a threat to pick before we do.

[–] Shmeeeee23@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago
[–] mazman13@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

FTP, always.

[–] Gleasonryan@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

My understanding is that we want the panthers to have the lower SOS so packers losing helps that and us because FTP.

[–] Mmmoreplees@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Id like the Packers to lose because ftp

[–] Brodie1567@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Biggest thing is Carolina losing.

[–] alexandriaprissy@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Only 5 games so far went our way