NFL

Bills were only a few plays away from winning every game that they lost. If you look at each individual loss they could feasibly be 10-0, 9-1, 8-2. Yet they also looked like the worse team in most of those losses and deserved to lose all of the games that they did and arguably at least one of their wins. They just somehow managed to keep them close. They are at times one of the worst teams in the league and at times one of the best, and they are capable of both beating the best teams in the league and losing to the worst.

We probably should have lost the two games that we won.

I mean, we are way worse. It's kind of a miracle we won three games and I wouldn't be surprised if we finished with three wins. The roster is incredibly shallow once a few guys got banged up and went down it practice squad caliber players wherever you look.

Who are the raiders? Like genuinely

we are a made field goal and foster moreau catch away from being 7-3

The Panthers is the answer for both

Somehow it feels like the Bills are both better and worse than their record

The jets are better than their record imo that defense is lock down they're winning games with a rag tag offense...let them make the playoffs with rodgers coming back and watch what happens

We can look at Pythagorean expectation, which predicts the expected number of wins based on points scored vs. points allowed at this point in the season. And then teams that are winning more games than they "should" based on points scored vs allowed are "worse than their record", and conversely teams that are winning fewer games than they should are "better than their record."

By 9 or 10 games played in the expansion era (since 2002), 62% of teams are within 1 win of their expected wins. About 87% are within 2 wins. This season, interestingly, 100% of teams are within 2 wins of expected, and 85% are within 1 win.

There is 1 team who is 2 wins below expected (better than their record):

• Buffalo Bills. Expected: 7-3. Actual: 5-5.

There are 4 team who are 2 wins above expected (worse than their record):

• Philadelphia Eagles. Expected: 6-3. Actual: 8-1.
• Detroit Lions. Expected: 5-4. Actual: 7-2
• Seattle Seahawks. Expected: 4-5. Actual: 6-3.
• Pittsburgh Steelers. Expected: 4-5. Actual: 6-3.

Now personally I'd argue that no team is really better or worse than their record, because a team that is getting significantly more wins than expected based on points probably has the benefit of skillful players and coaches who can figure out how to keep games close and exploit advantages to squeak out victories (e.g., the Steelers). And teams that are below expected conversely underperform in such situations by habitually making costly errors in close games (Bills). Also, it can be skewed by big blowout wins or losses which in some cases could be isolated "burn the tape" outlier games that don't really reflect a team's average performance (Lions and Seahawks vs. Ravens). So make of this what you will.

Broncos

Pats have 5 losses by 1 score, and 2 wins by 1 score. Could be 7 and 3 or 0 and 10.

Bills are better than their record, Steelers are worse. One finds ways to lose games they shouldn't, the other wins games it shouldn't.

Over the last six years, the Steelers are always a perplexing amount over .500 in relation to the often times ridiculous product they put on the field.

Is Denver better than their record indicates?

Baltimore is better than record. I hope Lamar gets a ring to match his MVP. Then people can fuck off with their RB jokes.

I don't think the lions are quite as good as their record. Yeah they beat the chiefs on opening night without two of their best players, but their other wins are against not very good teams. Baltimore embarrassed them, and Seattle showed that a competent offense can hang with and beat them.

Chargers got two wins against two of the worst QB situations in the league. Every other team has given us fits, whether they’re really good or really bad.

The only reason we keep getting close games is because Herbert is very very good (though even he has had some bad games this year). Otherwise we would be getting blown out every week because our defense is AWFUL against any offense that isn’t one of the worst in the league.

Vikings are better than their record. Insane amount of fumbles those first 5 games and never had a chance to recover any of them

The browns are not as good. That defense is great, top 5 in the league. But nobody is scared of that offense. I think they finish closer to .500

This 49ers team had absolutely no business losing to the PJ Walker lead Browns.

The Vikings and Bengals losses I can stomach... but that Browns loss bothers me.

Steelers definitely worse than their record.

The Seahawks do not pass the eye test.

Nobody can beat the Ravens.

Except the Ravens.

Vikings or chargers better Steelers worse

The entire NFCS is worse than their record.