this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2023
2 points (100.0% liked)

NFL

114 readers
2 users here now

A place for NFL news, game highlights and everything that excites you about American Football.

founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
 

With QBs that have retired in the last 5 years, there are some interesting HOF debates that I see coming up. Right now the sure-fire HOF guys are Brady, Brees, and Rodgers when he retires. The next tier, however, is a lot more interesting. You have Matt Ryan, Big Ben, and Rivers who are all very close. What's interesting is that according to Pro Football Reference's HOF Monitor, they all have fairly similar scores even though they have different resumes. Ryan has the MVP/All-Pro 1 season which is pretty much required unless you have 2 Super Bowls. Ben doesn't have a crazy MVP season, but he does have those 2 Super Bowls and 17 good years. Then Rivers has some crazy counting stats. I think that Ryan and Roethlisberger have a slight edge over Rivers but it is very hard to separate the 3. So my question is do we think any of them make it? If they do it opens up the debate for a lot of players in the future. Also, how do we think the HOF committee weighs Rings/MVPS/All-Pro teams? The media is always so focused on the rings but looking at the resumes of HOF QBs there are a lot more without rings than there are without All-Pro seasons.

Edit: Here is the PFR Monitor. The average HOF QB has a score of 108. Ryan has a score of 106, Ben has a score of 100, and Rivers is at 98.

(page 4) 50 comments
sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[–] Nightgasm@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Ben Roethlisberger shouldnt get in though he likely will eventually. The others are a no. For Ben only 5 get in per year and he eligible same year as Adrian Peterson and Gronk who are locks as 1sr ballot and easily over him. Then you have Richard Sherman and Eric Weddle who are HoFs though maybe not 1st ballot. Plus the interesting case of Antonio Brown who on paper is 1st ballot but all the other stuff with him may make him wait. This isn't even considering all the players from prior years.

He probably gets in eventually but he won't be 1st ballot. He isn't even a top 5 QB of his era and all he really has to hang his hat on is two superbowl wins that were more defense than him. His rape allegation will also be factor. AP has his child abuse stuff but he has all time rushing stats which Ben does not.

Some will probably want to argue my top 5 thing: Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees overlap most his career. At the beginning there was still Favre and Warner. At the end there was Mahomes and Jackson. In the middle you besides Ryan, Rivers, and Eli you have Stafford all putting up similar stats. Then you have shorter duration QBs like Newton who for a few years were better. Ben is the epitome of a Hall of Very Good QB who will sneak in because a great team around him and a future HoF coach helped him to two superbow

[–] justaguy826@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Big Ben is getting in because of the rings and being a Steeler. I don't think the other two get in, but Ryan's case is stronger thanks to the MVP, AP1, Super Bowl appearance, as well as an OROY.

[–] elliott9_oward5@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

The fact that Eli Manning will probably get in and Rivers probably won’t is disturbing.

[–] ihmpt@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Big Ben - Yes [two super bowl rings speaks for itself]

Matt Ryan - I'm gonna say no. At least not first ballot.

Rivers - Yes, but again, probably not first ballot.

[–] Acceptable-Yak7968@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Ben absolutely gets in, I don't think Rivers and Ryan should. They're both in the Hall of Very Good.

I think Greeny said something to the effect of "can you tell the story of the NFL without this player." The HoF is exists tell the story of great football players over the years. Sorry to Charger fans and Falcon fans but you easily can tell the story of that particular era of football without Matt Ryan and Phillip Rivers.

[–] frobro122@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

The biggest thing holding Rivers back is West Coast bias. If he'd been playing in a major market, he would have been a first rounder, no question.

[–] AlPesto@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Eli gets in before Ryan or Rivers. He’s top 10 in most counting stats and has two superbowls MVP’s and has never had anything close to HOFer on his offense. I believe Strahan is the only HOF teammate he’s ever had and Strahan was in the twilight of his career. In 2007 their defense was ranked 17th and 2011 they were ranked 25th. He was an underdog in both super bowls and won them with game winning touchdown drives. You can rail on his not so flashy regular season numbers, but this guy had two halfway decent teams his entire career and he won superbowls with both of them. If you think the guy who blew the biggest superbowl lead ever, with a much better team than Eli has ever had is getting in before him than you’re nuts.

[–] Nethri@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

He's my favorite active player, and is my overall favorite except for Barry.. but I feel like Stafford is another one of these guys. And it really isn't his fault. The Lions were fucking awful. Just a trash organization for the entire time he was there, and he's still by far the greatest Lions QB in the super bowl Era.

But I don't think he quite gets in. The super bowl may get him there though, and I personally think he should make it. Guys like Rivers, Ben and Ryan had extremely talented teams and orgs around them for many years out of their careers.

Stafford had like...4 in Detroit. And then the super bowl year with the Rams.

Imo Ben makes it, the other 3 don't.

[–] OJ403@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I think Ben get's in. he has good stats, decent longevity, playoff success, superbowl wins.

Matt Ryan has a case, mainly the MVP under his belt and stats. But then let's compare him with say... Rich Gannon. Gannon didn't have nearly as good stats, but also played in an era where you couldn't put them up the same. He also has a single MVP. He also has 4 pro bowls. He has 2 first team all pro's to Matt Ryan's only one. He also has 2 Bert Bells to Matt Ryans one.

he is not in the hall of fame, nor do I think anyone is really considering him for it. I think Matt Ryan falls there as well.

I don't want to make a hard declaration that Philip Rivers will not make the hall of fame.. but Matt Ryan imo has a better case than him and likely won't make it.

[–] kander12@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Ben's going in 2nd or 3rd Ballot. He won't go first cause he's an ass. Eli is not quite a lock but is most likely getting in. If Phil makes it in the Hall is a fucking joke and it's discredited. Phil did nothing big his entire career, no wins, trophies or iconic moments.

[–] yeezybuckets@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Cam Newton is not a HoF QB.

[–] Wemblack@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I don’t think Ben, Ryan, or Rivers make it in. Brees only makes it in because his trailblazing the path to 80,000 yards being so much higher than the next person (excluding Brady). Brees makes it in even without the Super Bowl win because his contribution to NFL history with the 80k yards.

Two Super Bowl wins isn’t enough to get you in anymore because Eli is going to miss with the two biggest wins in Super Bowl history so Ben is out. Ryan and Rivers have zero Super Bowl wins, and did not attain any significant regular season or post season records or hit any huge QB milestones or really advance the game at their position so they are also out.

Being completely realistic, Rodgers is the only other guy I see going to HOF because he has 4 MVPs and his TD:INT ratio is so damned insane that he really impacted what we consider a top QB should be like. His ratio is above 4.5 after 18 seasons, the next highest is Mahomes at 3.67 who only has 7 years. The next two seasoned QBs are Russell Wilson with 3.18 with 150 less TDs then Tom Brady at 3.06.

Mahomes is on the right track, but he needs to keep playing for at least another decade at the same level he’s been playing at with the same level of success to really get into the conversation seriously.

[–] happyharrell@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Ben is in. I don’t agree with this, but Rivers will get in, too. Same with Eli. Not sure Ryan makes it.

[–] det8924@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Big Ben will get in, he has two Super Bowls and a lot of passing stats that you wouldn't expect and he won a lot in his career outside of those two SB runs including a SB loss in 2010.

Eli Manning, Matty Ice, and Rivers are the true edge cases. Out of the three I think Eli Manning gets it and the other two are left out. Eli has the two SB runs but also has beaten Brady twice in the SB. I think Eli also being spectacular in those runs also adds to why voters will let him in despite good but not great regular season stats and records.

Matty Ice and Rivers have the regular season stats but never were consistent playoff performers. I think given how inflated QB stats are these guys are left out on the edge.

[–] gordo865@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Looking through that list, Warren Moon is the only QB in the hall with no championships and no 1st team all pro seasons. He only has 1 more pro bowl than rivers. Both played the same number of seasons. Both had a highest career finish of 3rd in the MVP voting. Moon has 1 2nd team AP I suppose. I feel like if Moon's in Rivers should probably be voted in at some point.

[–] Sorry-Spite9634@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Moon played in an entirely different era though.

[–] Bnstas23@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Big Ben was never top 5 in MVP voting in the league. I know the sentiment is that he’ll get in, especially with his two SBs, but never being top 5 in his prime is almost the definition of HoVG

[–] ShowBobsPlzz@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Ben will make it. Ryan and rivers shouldnt. Eli manning will make it bc he has 2 rings even though he was never the best QB in his division.

[–] YDoEyeNeedAName@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

the only way a guy gets in with 0 Super Bowls is if the break passing records and have Multiple MVPs. Ryan and rivers are HoVG, not HOF.

[–] ksyoung17@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Would prefer Ben not getting in. Those super bowls were terrible performances.

That's a guy elevated by the talent around him, not elevating the talent himself.

HOVG in my opinion.

load more comments (2 replies)
[–] Fordrynn@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Big Ben isnt close. Hes a two time Superbowl champ who had great numbers and was an excelling QB.

[–] sfzen@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

At this point, unless you're truly on a completely different level in terms of both stats and impact, having at least one Super Bowl ring is a requirement in addition to having the stats, accolades, and longevity.

Look at the guys in that general tier you're discussing: Ben, Eli, Ryan, and Rivers, in broad strokes.

  • Ben has 64,000 yards, 418 TD's, and 2 rings.

  • Ryan has 63,000 yards, 381 TD's, and no rings, with 1 MVP.

  • Rivers has 63,000 yards, 421 TD's, and no rings.

  • Eli has 57,000 yards, 366 TD's, and 2 rings.

Frankly, they're all about the same. The Super bowls are what set them apart, plus Ryan's MVP.

To me, Ben gets in and Eli gets in. Ryan has an edge over Rivers thanks to his MVP, but while I could see all 4 of them getting in eventually, the clear line to draw is SB rings.

Like you said, everyone in the modern game with a long career as a starter will have the volume stats. We really do have to look more firmly at "what did you win and were you inarguably elite?" Eli wasn't "inarguably elite," but he does have the volume stats and the two rings put him over the top. To be perfectly honest, beating the undefeated Pats in 2007 is the kind of storybook win that earns him a spot in the hall even if it was his only ring IMO, and then he beat Brady in the SB again just for shits and giggles.

[–] Pretty_Contract_7972@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Matt Ryan or Rivers getting in would be a complete mockery

[–] terrapinninja@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Funny that we are having this conversation without talking about Tony Romo, a guy who was even better than Ben or Eli but didn't have the good fortune to play on teams as good as they had

[–] austic@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I think Ben is the only one to get in. Others needed the Super Bowl to get in. Just my thoughts.

[–] MildlyDepressed346@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Big Ben feels like a lock, I’d lean no for Ryan and Rivers

[–] LorHus@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I’m gonna assume you omitted Flacco because he isn’t technically retired yet #elite

[–] EliManningsPetDog@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Shocking Eli wasn’t mentioned but since people are already bashing him while simultaneously preaching for Ryan to be HOF then I need to back my guy up here lmao:

2x SB mvp (1 of 5 players to do this)

3rd all time in consecutive starts (over 13 seasons without missing a start!!)

11th all time in wins

7th most passing yards all time

7th most td passes all time

10th most game winning drives all time

2nd all time in road playoff wins

most passing yards in a single postseason (1,219 in 2011)

but sure… it’s just because he’s a manning

[–] tacobell999@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Big Ben is a lock

[–] DBDXL@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Ben should be first ballot no question.

[–] kfbrewer@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Does the quarterback have two Super Bowl rings? Automatic in eventually. Maybe not first ballot Eli but he’s the bottom of the line. Rank anyone else against that threshold.

Anyone one with one or less rings has to wait till all the two ringers waiting are in.

Sorry Ryan, Rivers, Brees, and Rodgers.

[–] tommer8224@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

It’s a good question for sure especially for Ryan and Rivers. I think Ben gets in pretty easily because of the Super Bowls but I definitely see your point. Now, considering Super Bowls what about Eli? His career stats are not inline with a HOFer but he has those damn Super Bowls, over Brady no less. I’m not saying he should get in but it’s interesting to ponder.

[–] 2fly2hide@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

What about Eli? Is he a shoo-in?

[–] reno2mahesendejo@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

If Kurt Cousins had finished this season, and say played 3 more at his career pace (4,000 yards, 28 tds), I think that's when the bar would be moved up

Based on total numbers, he'd be a Hall of Fame borderline guy. But he absolutely never passed the eye test.

So, get ahead of it. To me, Matt Ryan is the first guy out - an MVP, a conference title, some bulk stats, but doesn't scream Hall of Fame to me.

[–] LOLokayRENTER@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Love Rivers, but throw it all away if he gets in there. QBs with multiple rings who are actually good always get in.

Matty Ice is interesting but still hall of very good for me. A single MVP and no rings isn't enough IMO.

I'd buy it if he was unquestioned top 5 QB every year, but he never was. He was consistently in the top 5-10 range outside of the MVP year.

[–] Walks_with_Chaos@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

As much as I hate him I think the two time rapist should make it because he has 2 SBs and a damn good career.

I’m not sure Ryan or Rivers should be in. Not with no SBs. I just don’t think their careers are good enough

Edit: also I do think Eli should get in

[–] AudienceGrouchy2918@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Eli isn't even close to being a HOFer. His stats are atrocious. Be serious.

Same for Rivers.

[–] IAmSona@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Ryan and Rivers are not getting in. I think it should be pretty clear which QBs from the past couple of decades get in with the exception of Eli Manning. There’s an argument for and against him, everyone else, though, not really.

[–] santaclausbos@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I’ll be honest, are Brees and Rodgers even hall of famers? I feel as playing careers get longer, longevity isn’t as important. Are they in the same class as Brady, Peyton Manning, and even Maholmes?

[–] OceanCake21@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

None of those three get in. They were fine quarterbacks but they were never considered “elite” during their careers. The Hall of Fame should be reserved for the best-of-the-best - and these three quarterbacks were never that. I’d consider Brees to be left out also.

[–] ziggyjoe212@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I think all 3 make it, but Ryan is clearly the worst of the 3. Eli Manning should be the line. Average starting QB who happened to win 2 SB. He's on Joe flacco level. If he makes it, I get it. It would be more for his resume than his play.

[–] BiioHazzrd@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

If you are putting Brees in, Ben gets it too.

[–] VBStrong_67@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I can't remember where I heard it, but I really like the saying "if you can't tell the story of the NFL without talking about that player, they deserve to be in the HoF.

Going with that, I think Big Ben makes it (multiple Super Bowl champ, kinda broke the mold as a QB who not only could take a hit, but also liked giving them out when he ran).

I think if you win multiple Super Bowls as a QB, you should get in

[–] TheAstroChemist@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Here’s my prediction:

Ben and Eli will get in, but they will not be first-ballot.

Rodgers and Brady are 100% first-ballot locks.

Rivers and Ryan won’t get in.

load more comments
view more: ‹ prev next ›