this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2023
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With QBs that have retired in the last 5 years, there are some interesting HOF debates that I see coming up. Right now the sure-fire HOF guys are Brady, Brees, and Rodgers when he retires. The next tier, however, is a lot more interesting. You have Matt Ryan, Big Ben, and Rivers who are all very close. What's interesting is that according to Pro Football Reference's HOF Monitor, they all have fairly similar scores even though they have different resumes. Ryan has the MVP/All-Pro 1 season which is pretty much required unless you have 2 Super Bowls. Ben doesn't have a crazy MVP season, but he does have those 2 Super Bowls and 17 good years. Then Rivers has some crazy counting stats. I think that Ryan and Roethlisberger have a slight edge over Rivers but it is very hard to separate the 3. So my question is do we think any of them make it? If they do it opens up the debate for a lot of players in the future. Also, how do we think the HOF committee weighs Rings/MVPS/All-Pro teams? The media is always so focused on the rings but looking at the resumes of HOF QBs there are a lot more without rings than there are without All-Pro seasons.

Edit: Here is the PFR Monitor. The average HOF QB has a score of 108. Ryan has a score of 106, Ben has a score of 100, and Rivers is at 98.

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[–] Mistake_By_The_Jake2@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I feel like you can only put so much weight into counting stats in the modern era.

[–] Sdog1981@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I think the HoF will draw a Phillip Rivers/Matt Ryan line.

They could make a compelling argument that a QB to be even considered for the hall they have to make at least one Super Bowl as a starter and if they loose a SB they have to make it to more than one as a starter.

[–] Njdevilmn@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

A lot of Giants fans think Eli should get in the HOF because of his 2 SB MVPs.

I am a Giants fan and I do not think Eli should be in the HOF. Aside from those 2 SB runs (which I’ll cherish forever) I think Eli was an average to good QB.

[–] bobeshit@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Can't believe Ben is even being considered his, let's just say shady past.

[–] Taserface585@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Matt Ryan. Absolutely not. With that SB win, probably

Big Ben: Absolutely will with the 2 SB

Rivers: Hall of Very Good. On the fence but lack of accolades keeps him out.

[–] crevulation@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Roethlisberger, character issues aside, is probably in. It's pretty clear that the NFL doesn't worry about sexual assault, so barring a sea change on that, he'll go first ballot. 2 rings, prolific rookie career, 6 Pro Bowls, AP Rookie of the Year, etc, etc, multiple 500 yard games, near the top of the all time list in yardage. Yeah. He's in.

Matty Ice may have ha a solid career, but doesn't have a Super Bowl so the only mention of him in the HoF will be about the Falcons losing to New England after being up 28-3.

If there's a wing added to the HoF for ultra productive sperm and G-rated trash talk, Phil Rivers is a lock. If there's not, he won't be in either.

[–] MC_Stimulation@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Ben is a lock, Matt Ryan is borderline due to the MVP and Superbowl season, Rivers won't get in. Eli will get in for 2 rings even though Matt Ryan and Rivers were both better QBs, which is why the Hall of Fame is weird sometimes

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[–] Early-Retirement-22@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

They lowered the bar when they inducted Joe Namath, his career numbers are actually bad. 50-50 winning percentage, 50% completion, 173 tds, 220 int.

[–] Millera34@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Matt Ryan wasn’t good enough

Big Ben shouldn’t be allowed due to his shady ongoings off the field.

Rivers is like but falls short as well

Rings dont make the QB though for me as its a team game you dont win one without a good team

[–] Higgins8585@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Ben gets in, Matt Ryan maybe eventually.

I think going forward Dak Prescott will be a good line to measure a HoF qb. If you're better than him you'll have the stats just need longevity.

[–] Bradfords_ACL@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Big Ben and probably Eli. Rivers and Matt maybe but I’ll say no.

[–] Gavorn@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

How is big ben not a sure fire HoFer? He has two rings and put up great statistics.

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[–] kosmos_uzuki@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Big Ben only. Other two are not HOF.

[–] tinyraccoon@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

MVP/All-Pro 1 season which is pretty much required unless you have 2 Super Bowls

I think this is probably the line.

[–] AshBlackstone78@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Big Ben is a first ballot Hall of Famer probably.

2 Super Bowl wins, high on the all time list in a lot of career stats.

[–] joeyrog88@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

It's going to be very interesting to see how they view some of these volume dudes. I think all the 04 1st rounders get in except for jp losman. I also think Matty ice gets in.

It's all weird though because Donovan McNabb won't get in.

[–] Fitz2001@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I can’t think of a single Phil Rivers highlight.

And the only game I remember his Chargers beating Colts in the playoffs one time.

He was never a top 3 QB in the NFL in any season.

Stats are great. Chargers fans love him. Sounds like Wall of Fame or Ring of Honor, but no even close to Hall of Fame.

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[–] SquadPoopy@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I’ve never quite understood people who use Super Bowl/championship wins as criteria for the HOF in both football and other sports.

What you do is essentially condemn any player who didn’t win a Super Bowl because of a variety of factors that very well might have been out of their control. If a good player is stuck on a really bad team, why hold them off the ballot because “they didn’t win anything”? Football especially is a team sport where there is heavy emphasis on the team aspect.

Take Philip Rivers, I firmly believe he deserves the HOF. Nothing about the numbers he put up says he shouldn’t be. Is it really Rivers’s fault he had Marty Schottenheimer as coach? A guy notorious for being unable to win the big game? Or Mike McCoy? Or Anthony Lynn? Despite what the Patriots did during this time, people should remember that getting to the Super Bowl is hard, let alone winning it.

And that argument cuts both ways I think. Joe Thomas is in the hall of fame? Okay but what did he win? He didn’t play a single down his entire career in the playoffs. But he has a ton of all pros so it’s fine. Okay, so that would mean unless you are literally the best player in the entire country at your position year after year, if you don’t win anything that disqualifies you from the HOF? That’s some pretty backwards logic if you ask me.

[–] brownjitsu@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

You all better keep that same energy for Ben Roethlesberger that your keeping for Deshaun Watson

[–] 2Blitz@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Honestly I think the Hall of Fame line is gonna be called the "Rivers Line" for a long time. If you had a better career than Rivers, you're in the HOF. Literally all Rivers needed was maybe an All Pro selection and/or a SB win and he makes it in. There's no debate on his individual skill. I think Eli gets in on how impactful he was in the playoffs and the fact that he took down the Patriots twice. Ben is a slightly worse Rivers, with 2 SBs so he gets in from a career perspective. Ryan might be on par with Rivers, but he does have an SB appearance, MVP and an All Pro selection. So I think he gets in, but not so soon.

[–] Ill_WillRx@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

At no point in his career has Philip Rivers stood above his peers statistically or award wise. Why do so many people believe he should be a first ballot hall of famer? The HoF is very picky and particular especially when it comes to QBs. His class has too many above him and the new QBs are already surpassing him award wise (statistically as well with time)

[–] CDSWDH@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Big Ben is sure fire Bress was never and mvp don’t know why he gets so much praise

[–] AdamBlackfyre@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

This the nicest r/nfl has been to Ben Roethlisberger, and I don't know how to deal with it lol

[–] Tornadus-T@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I think Ben is borderline and Newton, Ryan, and Rivers are below borderline. Eli will probably get in Namath style

[–] Zimmy68@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I'm sure this is an unpopular opinion I think there needs to be 2 criteria met, regular season and post season.

Have a "Hall of Very Good" for those that can't meet both criteria.

Do I think Eli Manning is a Hall of Famer? No way. Will he be? Of course.

He meets the post season but the guy never scared a team playing him.

[–] frobro122@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I've always thought that Big Ben is more product of great team play and coaching than his own skill.

He's played under two hall of fame coaches compared to the other QBs who had a revolving door of coaches but still constantly produced.

[–] kevinmorice@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Big Ben and 2 Superbowls is in. Or he would be the first ever double SB QB not to go.

The others are messy, and by the time they come round Russ and Kirk and Stafford are probably in people's minds as well to cloud up the thinking. And potentially by that point they are being compared to the 2027 career records of Mahomes, Lamar, Tua, Lawerence, and anyone else who is going along for future considerations.

[–] JuanPicasso@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Ben gets in for sure, Eli gets in for sure, Ryan does not get in for sure, rivers does not get in for sure, Russ most likely does not get in anymore. It’s pretty simple. Now you can say Ryan Is a better qb than both those guys and I would agree but it doesn’t really matter. You can say Eli doesn’t deserve it and I agree but it doesn’t really matter. Cam I think is interesting as a mvp and has the ridiculous running/td stats, but he also does not get in. Also aikman and these other QBs being in doesn’t move the needle for these guys that are better QBs. It’s different eras.

[–] DailyPanthersPodcast@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Do y’all think Rivers hasn’t officially retired yet because he’s trying to put some space between himself and his counterparts?

[–] NYerInTex@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Ben gets in due to the SB's, even if one was literally in spite of his play.

Eli gets in because he was the most important single player for not just two SB's, but for the entirety of those SB playoff runs.

Rivers might get in because of accumulated stats but I dont think so without the winning when it counts.

Matt Ryan has no chance.

[–] Busy_Signature_5681@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Eli it’s the litmus. He should get in. His career is all around better then Ryan and rivers (I’m a huge rivers guy but Eli had the batter career )

Only Ben can get in, and Eli not without making the hall a joke.

[–] Swankyyyy@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Eli is a sure-fire HOF guy, period. No way he's not getting in with 2 SB MVPs and being top 10 on a few of the all-time passing stat leaderboards.

[–] speedfan11@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

This will be extremely fascinating. The easy decision would just be to say the line is somewhere in the large gap between Brees and Roethlisberger. But realistically, Ben is a HOFer and his induction will open the debate for so many others (Eli, Rivers, Ryan, Russ, even Stafford would have to get a brief discussion).

This is why I really hope they wait several years before inducting anyone not named Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes.

[–] busche916@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago (8 children)

Ben and Eli will both get in based on rings and longevity. I know Eli was never a super dominant regular season QB, but he’s A) a Manning B) responsible for two of the wildest SB wins of all time and C) probably has 2 of the 10 greatest plays in that contest.

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[–] redshift83@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

rivers does not deserve to get in, but the hall is quickly becoming over-inclusive.

[–] ironhead_mule@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Cumulative stats in an era of increasing stat accumulation should not be a factor, unless you have Marino or Brady type excess. Rivers and Ryan are both very good, but never great QBs and aren’t worthy of HoF IMO.

[–] InsideAcanthisitta23@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Any meaningful comparison of QBs would have to standardize their performance to the average player in that year for each year of their career.

[–] reececanthear@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Rivers will not sniff the HoF lmao

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[–] GuyWithTriangle@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Strange that you put Big Ben as a potential borderline case but not Eli Manning, because Roethlisberger was a better QB at every stage of his career than Manning was

[–] theflyingchicken96@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Ben is a lock.

Eli probably gets in.

Ryan probably doesn’t get in.

Rivers definitely does not get in, which I hate.

I think he is the best QB out of all four, but he doesn’t have any awards except for Pro Bowls and only made it to the AFCCG once and that won’t cut it. The HOF is based on winning, awards, and championships much more than career stats.

[–] WhodeyBrr@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Eli for sure. He’s in for winning against the perfect season Patriots in the Super Bowl. Ben, I’m obviously extremely bias but I don’t know. His off the field stuff will make it unlikely at least on first ballot. Rivers and Ryan aren’t going in. Really good quarterbacks of this era will be judged against Peyton and Brady. Sure it’s unfair but it’s how it is.

Other positions need catching up. Hell Ken Riley just got in. Lorenzo Neal, Dwight Freeney, Reggie b Wayne and Torrie Holt aren’t in yet. All of them just based off memory (pretty sure they aren’t in) plus Willie Anderson should but that’s my bias and he only was eligible this year.

[–] Soren_Camus1905@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Big Ben is getting in, not Rivers and Ryan

[–] Ok-Mixture-316@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Ben yes, Ryan and Rivers clear no

[–] MysteriousRun1522@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Ben absolutely gets in, no question.

[–] logster2001@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago (1 children)

HOF is honestly more about what people remember about a player more than anything. Like what is there legacy when people talk about them.

Rodgers will be remembered as having the greatest arm talent of all time. He obviously gets in.

Brees will go down as one of if not the best pure passer of all time. At minimum the most accurate ever that proved to be able to win. He is a lock.

Tom Brady is the GOAT…

Big Ben will be remembered one of the most ultimate winners, who is one of the most naturally talented QBs of all time. I think he easily gets in.

But that then brings us to -

Matt Ryan - I just don’t know what exactly will he be remembered for. I know A LOT of people think of the blown Super Bowl lead when they think of him. And even disregarding the Super Bowl, it’s also just I don’t think he is that memorable of a QB. For perspective even tho he is without a doubt the best and most successful QB in franchise history, I think there are A LOT of fans who still think of Michael Vick when they think of the Atlanta Falcons. So yeah I honestly don’t know if he gets in

Eli Manning - I don’t think he will get in but him beating Brady in 2 Super Bowls honestly does help him a ton. Like if he were to beat 2 other QBs I don’t think he has a shot. But the fact Brady’s legacy is so huge and Eli’s legacy his so closely tied to it. I think it’s possible he gets in but unlikely

Then the most interesting one I think is Russell Wilson. Because his career with the Seahawks was not only VERY successful, but he also carved out a lane that I think would really be remembered by the voters. That being he will probably be considered the ultimate scrambling QB. But now with everything on the Broncos it really has hurt his legacy and honestly boosted Pete Carrols

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[–] Rancid-broccoli@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

None of those guys you mentioned should get in. There’s a reason why people set Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees into a category of their own. It’s because they are HOFers. Ben, Ryan, and Rivers aren’t in that tier.

[–] Canesjags4life@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Come on Big Ben is def getting in. Not 1st ballot but he's in. Ryan and rivers nope imo

[–] GarlVinland4Astrea@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

Ben is the only of those 3 that get in.

[–] milkynipples69@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I think Ben gets in. He has 2 rings and all the stats needed along with 6 pro bowls. Ryan and rivers are on the fence due to the lack of postseason success. Ryan edges rivers because of the MVP and Super Bowl appearance so I think Ryan will get votes and rivers is just below them.

Follow up question where does Eli manning rank with them? He has the counting statistics along with 2 rings and 2 Super Bowl MVPs with 4 pro bowls. His efficiency wasn’t as good as those 3 and he was a .500 qb on his career. How much weight do the SB MVPs hold because none of the other 3 have them.

[–] Huegod@alien.top 1 points 2 years ago

I think Ryan and Rivers are probably the new line.

I could see that SB loss and MVP pushing Ryan in and keeping Rivers out.

But I think yards and TDs are going to be a watered down state for QBs.

I think the stats outlook will shift to high leverage stats, awards, and titles.

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