The phrase that I think is going to be jumping out at our allies here in the region is that the Strait of Hormuz is going to open up naturally at the end of this war. That is just not the understanding of anyone here in the Gulf region.
Before the war, 110 ships were passing through every day; Iranian oil was coming out, Iraqi oil, Saudi oil, Qatari gas, passing through a recognized passageway through the middle of the Strait of Hormuz. Today, something like five to 10 ships are passing through every day, and those ships are no longer going unmolested through the middle of the strait.
They are being forced into Iranian waters between a series of islands. This has been nicknamed the Tehran toll booth. The Iranians are inspecting these ships as they come by. They are charging some of them $2 million to pass through, and every indication is that the Iranians want to make this into a long-term arrangement, even after the war continues.
The idea that the U.S. is going to step away and basically leave the Iranians in control of the Strait of Hormuz, in the hope that they are just going to naturally give up this level of control that they have asserted, is going to be very worrying for people here in the Middle East.
...
Trump said in an interview earlier today that he was absolutely considering withdrawing from NATO — a significant step he could not take unilaterally. Trump would potentially have to ask Congress to do that, and right now, there are no indications that something like that could make it through.
Despite that, Trump did not mention that prospect doring his address, though he did have some criticism for these countries, saying he believes they should step up and do more.
...
As Trump addressed the nation, markets reacted negatively to what he had to say about his plan for the war with Iran.
S&P 500 futures slid 0.75%, Nasdaq futures sold off by 1%, and Dow futures dropped more than 310 points.
Oil prices also shot higher, with U.S. crude oil rising from around $98 to nearly $104. Brent, the international oil benchmark, soared from $99 to $106.
The move in oil prices will directly translate into higher gas prices. Already, since the war began Feb. 28, prices at the pump for U.S. consumers have risen from an average $2.46 per gallon to more than $4 today.
