this post was submitted on 19 Mar 2026
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Escalation trap

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[–] kikutwo@lemmy.world 45 points 1 week ago (1 children)

That should help lower the price of oil.

[–] festus@lemmy.ca 2 points 1 week ago

Seriously this. Oil is a global commodity. Iran was being dumb for allowing oil to ship to friendly countries, because them using that oil frees up other oil for the US and reduces the one leverage Iran has that Trump cares about. But I guess it doesn't matter - Trump is rescuing them from their mistake.

[–] random_character_a@lemmy.world 26 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Did somebody explain deescalation to Donny with a proper picture book?

[–] Thedogdrinkscoffee@lemmy.ca 8 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Do you honestly think it would help? I don't.

[–] minorkeys@lemmy.world 12 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

Didn't Iran just strike Qatar LNG?

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 4 points 1 week ago (3 children)

This is a massively positive development hidden in Trumpspeak headline. The important part of his tweet was "Israel will never/not hit Iranian energy again". Gabbard also said "Israel objectives not the same as US". All of this put the US firmly in a corner if its master violates US objectives (which were also narrowed by Hegseth to navy, missiles, nuclear program).

You should understand this development as a near term omen for peace instead of escalation.

[–] HumanOnEarth@lemmy.ca 7 points 1 week ago (1 children)

I'm not sure how. You expect the Iranian regime to just play nice? The US literally just removed the olive branch from one of their coins. That doesn't just happen on a whim.

This is existential for the Iranian regime and Trump nor Israel can live with the regime staying in power after this. The only option really is complete unconditional surrender or complete destruction. Guess which one is likely to happen with a religiously extreme regime and its hardline supporters.

Boots on the ground. 100% certainty. Check back in a month latest.

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 2 points 1 week ago

JCPOA 2.0 or buying Uranium for $50m/kg. Planes full of cash sent in 2 weeks, latest :P

I expect Iran to get a peace treaty on their terms, as the end game. Hegseth's new "clear objectives" are full victory has been fully accomplished other than "Iran will never have a nuclear program". That is the easiest thing to accomplish in the world... if you don't send Mossad Israel-first agents in as the negotiators.

[–] LeonineAlpha@sh.itjust.works 5 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Cause, how?

USA gonna actually, really, seriously, irrevocably, cut Israeli arms supplies? If Israel crosses THAT line (again, after every other line)?

Even if now they will (they wont) but even if, why would Israel believe them? Why would Iran trust them?

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 1 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Why would Iran trust them?

Instead of JCPOA 2.0, very large volume of cash or Chinese RMB for uranium does not require Iran trust. Just payment in advance.

It's not a question of Iran trusting Israel to not attack their energy, it's Iran with the power of destroying triple the energy in the GCC as a response, that forced the US to contain Israel.

[–] LeonineAlpha@sh.itjust.works 2 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

What about Israel or Trump behaviour makes you think they choose actions for the reasons YOU see as rational? Why do you presume their goals are ones you agree with (mutual self interest?)

People that believe "zero sum game" consider situations like: "we" lose half, but we make everyone else lose 3/4 = "we" win, so they would totally do that

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 0 points 1 week ago

Where the goals of US is to not make GCC hostile to Israel or the US, they can make a deal on that basis. Where Israel would prefer not to keep getting hit by Iran missiles, as in 12 day war, they too can make a deal, especially if their unlimited US free supply of weapons is threatened.

Iran has complete control over SoH, and survival of GCC. US/Israel war support is based on invulnerability from any consequence.

[–] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca 3 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Could it be just good cop / bad cop like they played during the so called negotiations?

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 4 points 1 week ago

"Israel will not do it again" is a firm corner to back himself into. Keep him in that corner is political opportunity. That kompromatted pedo in chief can never resist master just forces the pedo in chief to more fully serve master.

[–] Greyghoster@aussie.zone 1 points 1 week ago

If he does then climate change will kill some billions. Lucky climate change is the greatest con perpetrated by Donny the conman. We obviously have nothing to worry about but the methane supply is likely to be down for years.