politics

I hope your optimism is vidicated, but....

This specific race was for a deep-blue seat, prior to this race the Republican candidate had at best gotten 18%, and this time the republican got 38%, the most any republican has ever gotten for that state seat. Comparing Trump vote to state senate run seems to be apples and oranges for this district.

EVERY special election has gone against Republicans badly.

Well, except for the fact that not a single seat has been flipped. I suppose I can grant that the Republicans slipped 10-15 points in these races compared to the election where Trump was running, but of the three chances to actually flip a republican seat, none did anything.

On the senate, looking at the seats up, I could see maybe Georgia, NC, and Maine as potentially flippable, very remote chance of Texas... So 2-3 gains for the democrats at most. I don't think Senate is realistically in play, they need to flip 4 red seats to get even a simple majority, still well short of a filibuster proof majority and impossibly short of a veto-proof/remove president from office majority.

his Insurrection and his Stolen Classified Documents

While not 'dead' dead, the supreme court basically gave him a 100% pass on the insurrection, they basically declared that a president cannot be held criminally liable for anything while in office. The classified documents maybe but the supreme court can easily intervene and say the records are forever under the president's jurisdiction to classify as he pleases.

I think it's the huge margin for the win, and this:

Voters in Louisiana’s 60th House District, which covers parts of Assumption and Iberville Parishes, have historically supported Democrats at the state and local level, but have shifted toward Republicans in federal elections in recent years. Trump carried the district by a 56‑43 margin in 2024 against former Vice President Kamala Harris, according to calculations by The Downballot. In Assumption Parish, Trump received 67.17 percent of the vote to Kamala Harris’ 31.57 percent, while Iberville Parish was closely divided, with Trump at 49.6 percent and Harris at 48.87.

Russia/Israel/CCP. Almost all of the doomers are voting doesn't work, why aren't you starting a civil war, the dems are just gonna gaza harder than the turnip, etc.

Yeah, but like, its gonna come with some assumptions that we agree on stuff, and even a simplified version goes back 20 years. So this will be long, but as simple as I can make it.

2007 primary was mostly fair, there was a lot of finger on the scales and implied threats of ending careers for working with Obama. But the neoliberals didn't take him serious enough to really fuck with it.

That lead to Obama winning the primary, and the neoliberals from Bill's days who running the DNC to shit themselves. Because if Obama won, he'd name a DNC chair and that was the party.

So the DNC actively worked against Obama even in the general in 2007

Obama, rightfully pissed off made a stupid decision and allowed the neoliberals to hang onto the DNC. However he ran everything thru his own PACs and organizations. Which did a few things:

1. Bankrupt the DNC

2. Leave state dem parties to fend for themselves.

3. Leave the voting members of the DNC nowhere to turn, except double down on neoliberals and corpo. support.

So by the time 2015 runs around, the party is still broke, however the prior chair just gaslights everyone else at the DNC and keeps telling them it's fine.

In order to fund the DNC enough for the primary, a deal is reached with the Clinton campaign, where they funded the DNC in exchange for final say on anything the DNC said or did, essentially Hillary Clinton cut a check to buy the DNC

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/11/02/clinton-brazile-hacks-2016-215774/

But, instead of just cashing a check, Hillary also set up a system of "bundling" where you could (in one donation) write a check for the max to a candidate, max to the DNC, and max to all 50 state parties.

"To make it easy" just one single check, you could give to Hillary.

That money became the "Hillary Victory Fund":

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/dnc-leak-clinton-team-deflected-state-cash-concerns-226191

That money was then supposed to be broken down and distributed, which would have been very easy since they were maxing stuff out.

But neoliberals gonna neoliberal, so:

The victory fund has transferred $3.8 million to the state parties, but almost all of that cash ($3.3 million, or 88 percent) was quickly transferred to the DNC, usually within a day or two, by the Clinton staffer who controls the committee, POLITICO’s analysis of the FEC records found.

By contrast, the victory fund has transferred $15.4 million to Clinton’s campaign and $5.7 million to the DNC, which will work closely with Clinton’s campaign if and when she becomes the party’s nominee.

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/clinton-fundraising-leaves-little-for-state-parties-222670

So anyone that would have given to state parties because they maxed at the DNC or candidate, gave to the victory fund which the DNC and candidate appropriated and used as a single bag of money.

This got passed to Biden, then to Kamala.

The only way your state party could get some crumbs, was appeasing that group of neoliberals. Go against them, and they'd give you start nothing. They didn't care if Republicans won, because the goal of neoliberalism is to never have enough power to do what voters want.

Now that the goal is "as many seats as possible" and the money is going where it was always supposed to, we're going to see massive swings like this election.

So like I said, it's long. But thats honestly as short as it could be and I had to leave a lot out

Yeah Republicans are still trying to pull back bullshit from the New Deal.