this post was submitted on 22 Jan 2026

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Expert Who Ran Simulations on 'How Civil Wars Start' Warns Minnesota Is Exactly What It Looks Like (www.commondreams.org)

submitted 6 days ago by tonytins@pawb.social to c/news@lemmy.world

109 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Experts are warning that the Trump administration's ongoing crackdown in Minnesota could quickly get out of hand and could even result in a second US civil war.

Claire Finkelstein, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, wrote in a Wednesday column published by the Guardian that she and her colleagues at the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law (CERL) conducted a tabletop exercise in October 2024 that simulated potential outcomes if a US president were to carry out law enforcement operations similar to the ones being conducted by the Trump administration with US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers in Minnesota.

"In that exercise, a president carried out a highly unpopular law-enforcement operation in Philadelphia and attempted to federalize the Pennsylvania’s National Guard," Finkelstein explained. "When the governor resisted and the guard remained loyal to the state, the president deployed active-duty troops, resulting in an armed conflict between state and federal forces."

(page 2) 50 comments

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[–] RabbitBBQ@lemmy.world 2 points 5 days ago

These are similar to the tactics used before the full invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Masked and umarked paramilitary performing any destablizing action on an opposing political group. The excuse is just immigration but it's clear the longer term goals are "regime change". People in these areas need to accept that they are already at war. Financial, political and militarily with a large collection of states backing the Federal regime. Many of those states have literally deployed soldiers to other states under the false justification of enforcing immigration laws. Even if they deport every immigrant, they will stay and continue to accelerate these plans. Ukraine has shown how a smaller force can challenge a larger one. It's only a matter of time for those under occupation look to Ukraine and their asymetrical use of drones and other kinds of warfare to begin fighting back. They will not leave voluntarily and once they are out of immigrants to target, they will target other groups. Time to be clear about what is happening and respond accordingly.

[–] DylanMc6@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 6 days ago

We need community defense classes. Seriously!

[–] hector@lemmy.today 2 points 6 days ago (6 children)

Civil War suggests there will be organized resistance. Not like organized protesters, like organized military, and there will not be. The democrats will cave, they were chosen to be weak. It's a reign of terror, unending, presuming we squander the last chance to get rid of them in the succession before the fix is in beyond recovery with a candidate like newsom.

[–] MrsVeggies@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 children)

Hopefully, if there is a civil war, it will mean a new government actually for and by the people. Democrats will not be leading it, but that doesn't mean they won't start it.

[–] SabinStargem@lemmy.today 1 points 6 days ago

I would like to have Mark Kelly as our Washington, far as the military side of the conflict goes. He can be a Vice President to AOC after the dust has settled.

[–] MrMakabar@slrpnk.net 2 points 6 days ago (2 children)

There are the National Guard and State Guards, which could do that.

[–] hector@lemmy.today 3 points 6 days ago

Unfortunately they can be federalized as we've seen. Apparently it could be done already, but there was a law in like 2009 or so that gave the president more power to seize control of a national guard talked about in an Atlantic article about the imperial powers the presidency has accumulated over the centuries here around 2020 when we were staring down an open attempt to rig our elections.

Courts won't stop them, not for long.

[–] edible_funk@lemmy.world 2 points 6 days ago

It's a bad faith tankie accelerationist, don't engage.

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