Technology

In the late 90s I saw a piece demonstrating an optical 3d storage system that had a capacity about an order of magnitude greater than the at the time brand new HD DVD and Bluray discs. I assumed this clearly superior format that already had a working demo would obviously kill other optical media. Turns out nobody could figure out how to manufacture one at a price anybody was willing to spend.

Around 2000, graphene was a very hot material. I was pretty excited by it and thought carbon-based high-Farad capacitors would essentially replace lead acid and lithium ion batteries in most consumer electronics within a decade, maybe two.

I thought cameras on phones were a gimmick. To be fair, they were pretty low quality back then but I still use it to remind myself not to be too overconfident because boy was I wrong.

I thought people would learn how to use computers.

It seemed as if most of the millennial generation in wealthy countries did learn to some degree and I expected it to be even more true for younger generations. Those more sophisticated users would enable more sophisticated and flexible applications. Technology would empower individuals while weakening corporations and governments.

Instead, the most reliable recipe for popularizing tech is to dumb it down. Millennials represent a peak of digital literacy (in wealthy countries) and those younger tend to have weaker technical skills.

Having been on a few Segway tours I was surprised when they stopped making them. Easy to learn, fun to ride. Eventually they will age out and be gone. I wouldn't buy one for myself to have at home, but for whizzing around sightseeing when on holiday they're great.

I sold all of my Apple stock because they wanted to make a phone and I thought that would end poorly, so I should take my profits while I could.

Around 2009 I predicted that very soon, Linux smartphones you can plug into a docking station to use as a desktop PC would become the standard consumer computing device.

When the 3DS came out I was sure it would be a stepping stone to 3D TVs that didn't require glasses.

3D TVs basically died out by now.

I thought drones were just going to be a fad, but they've become huge, especially in terms of government and corporate surveillance. I should have realized the way it was going when America started using them militarily. American military inventions almost always end up becoming popular consumer products/applications.

My parents made us a Betamax household well into the mid 90s; always relegated to the small shitty section of the video rental store.

In the 2000s I wanted to avoid another format pushed by Sony, so I went with HD-DVD over Bluray... sigh. I even got the Xbox 360 external HD-DVD drive.

I thought Apple/most smartphones would never move to USB-C, or away from proprietary chargers. Pleasantly surprised - thank you EU.

I thought wireless controllers were going to be a fad, or at least garbage in their reliability/connection strength.

I thought VR was finally going to take off as the next major gaming experience when the Vive came out. Unfortunately it remains niche.

I thought Linux was going to be unusable for gaming/mainstream use cases for much longer, but Valve has made huge strides on that with Proton, and OSS devs making things like Heroic for other stores has been awesome. Also shoutout to KDE for, well, everything. Krita, KDE connect, Plasma. LibreOffice has also come a very long way.

I also thought we’d never get another steam controller. Also pleasantly surprised.

In the late nineties, I thought the availability of online knowledge would make universities obsolete.

"Nintendo should admit defeat and focus on making games for other platforms and mobile devices." - Me, after the Wii U and a little before the Switch launched.

Minidiscs would endure and crypto would fail.....I still believe both will bw true in the end....

Bitcoin. A technology trying to circumvent our highly regulated financial system? Which is mostly used to sell drugs online and evade sanctions? Where we knew at the start that it would need more energy than whole countries if it was successful? And then there are those 51% attacks? Yeah, that's stupid. I really would have expected governments to crack down harsh on everything bitcoin and cryptocoin and would have expected that owning or using them would be as illegal as owning child porn.

For reference, the first generation of IPhone actually preceded the IPod Touch, but the Touch reached my friend group first. Thus my reaction when I first heard of the IPhone was more or less,

"The IPod Touch is a gimmick, and now they want to make it your phone? Why the hell would anyone want a touchscreen phone in your pocket? Touchscreens are finnicky at the best of times, break at the slightest provocation, and a whole computer in your pocket would cost an absolute fortune. There's nothing wrong about just carrying an Mp3 player and phone separate in your pocket; this is just Apple selling an overpriced toy to their fanboys. Touch-screen computer-phones will never take off."

Boy do I feel like an idiot now.

"This bitcoin thing is too niche and low value to be worth figuring out"

Pessimistically I thought for sure autonomous war drones would have become way more prolific by now.

I also felt pretty sure that some kind of massive CRISPR/Cas9 catastrophe was bound to occur by now.

I never thought game subscription would take of. The entire concept is stupid to me. Pay per month to *acces selected games but not own them? Take into accoumt 90% of people will play at most 25% of the catalogue. Let's do some math if PS Plus Essentials, where you get 2-4 random titles per month is taken, which costs 9€ per month which if you play down to 25% of the catalogue goes up to 36€ per month (that is you basicly pay 36€ to play that single game which was chosen at random and you still don't own). For that ammount of money I can buy a REAL game I OWN or 5 good games on Steam Sale or GOG.

Still I guess if it sounds good people will smoke it.

To be clear these statistics are purly "Trust me bro" but I doubt someone will play Core Keeper, Disney Epic Mickey: Rebrushed and NFS: Unbound all in one month enough that it makes sense, and if you can more power to you, but I know those are not most people. Most people play Minecraft or Elder Scrolls or COD or GT etc.

Still feel free to express yours opinion.

I thought VR would be more widespread by now.

And it's probably because of the two next things I thought as well.

I thought it would be cheaper and easier to do by now. More like a Google Glass kind of thing. But we're still playing 4 figures for dedicated massive headsets to strap to our heads. No wonder it didn't take off.

And I mean dedicated like the HTC Vive. Not the Quest.

if I had been in the stock market in the 90s I would've gotten very rich then lost it all on iomega