this post was submitted on 10 Jan 2026
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I think that it's interesting to look back at calls that were wrong to try to help improve future ones.

Maybe it was a tech company that you thought wouldn't make it and did well or vice versa. Maybe a technology you thought had promise and didn't pan out. Maybe a project that you thought would become the future but didn't or one that you thought was going to be the next big thing and went under.

Four from me:

  • My first experience with the World Wide Web was on an rather unstable version of lynx on a terminal. I was pretty unimpressed. Compared to gopher clients of the time, it was harder to read, the VAX/VMS build I was using crashed frequently, and was harder to navigate around. I wasn't convinced that it was going to go anywhere. The Web has obviously done rather well since then.

  • In the late 1990s, Apple was in a pretty dire state, and a number of people, including myself, didn't think that they likely had much of a future. Apple turned things around and became the largest company in the world by market capitalization for some time, and remains quite healthy.

  • When I first ran into it, I was skeptical that Wikipedia would manage to stave off spam and parties with an agenda sufficiently to remain useful as it became larger. I think that it's safe to say that Wikipedia has been a great success.

  • After YouTube throttled per-stream download speeds, rendering youtube-dl much less useful, the yt-dlp project came to the fore, which worked around this with parallel downloads. I thought that it was very likely that YouTube wouldn't tolerate this


it seems to me to have all the drawbacks of youtube-dl from their standpoint, plus maybe more, and shouldn't be too hard to detect. But at least so far, they haven't throttled or blocked it.

Anyone else have some of their own that they'd like to share?

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[–] myrrh@ttrpg.network 1 points 1 hour ago

...yeah, i initally considered the `web an also-ran gopher knockoff, too...

[–] Acidbath@lemmy.world 8 points 7 hours ago

I hate microsoft but really liked windows phone and cortana. Something about tiles made a lot of sense and the keyboard was clean af.

I am very sure they were the first to have url bar above the keyboard in their browser WHICH WAS VERY HELPFUL BECAUSE YOUR FINGERS ARE ALREADY AT THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE PHONE LIKE OMFG.

like there was so many little things they did that just worked and worked well. rip windows phone, i will tell my grandkids about you.

[–] northernlights@lemmy.today 12 points 10 hours ago (3 children)

"Bitcoin will never take". I mined a few at the very beginning when it was easy, out of curiosity, and didn't bother backing up because it was useless anyway. Ahem.

[–] mirshafie@europe.pub 4 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

I mined a bit too. Got almost 2 bitcoin in 2 weeks. Figured it was a pyramid scheme, went back to running folding@home. Forgot my wallet passphrase.

[–] Jeffool@lemmy.world 2 points 4 hours ago

I bought and moved like 1 in late 2013 when it spiked just to play with it and see how it worked, out of curiosity about the tech. (And soon after, mined Dogecoin on Reddit when it started, and we all began tipping like crazy because it was fun and funny.) I made a few bucks off the BTC and kinda regretted not holding it longer. Then cut to a decade later... Sheesh. I may be more sour on the tech now, but damn I'm not so crazy as to not regret selling it.

[–] YiddishMcSquidish@lemmy.today 2 points 5 hours ago

I let ~20 of them disappear after hearing about the first domino pizza being bought with them for 600 some odd

[–] MajorasMaskForever@lemmy.world 8 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

I thought that AMDs move with Ryzen being heavily multi core architecture was dumb, and that they'd fail like bulldozer

[–] TrippaSnippa@aussie.zone 1 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago)

Before it launched I thought Bulldozer would be good. I even had an FX-8350, and in hindsight I'm not sure it was even an upgrade from the Phenom II X4 955 black edition that I had before

[–] Nooodel@lemmy.world 1 points 8 hours ago

Desertec failed due to geopolitical considerations (basically the Europeans didn't want to have their next energy sourced from a region outside their control and therefore stopped funding the project)

[–] Blackmist@feddit.uk 15 points 16 hours ago

The Wii. Previous gen console specs. Silly gimmick controller. Best selling peripheral was a step.

Most popular shit in the history of everything.

[–] Meron35@lemmy.world 15 points 17 hours ago (2 children)

I never thought tablet computers would become popular among the mainstream public.

When the iPad first came out, it was functionally worse than even the cheap netbooks, and I didn't see much purpose in the larger screen with phones getting bigger and bigger every year. Wireless display was also already available, so I envisioned people would just cast content to a TV if they really wanted a bigger screen. Even reading articles etc seemed to be already covered by eReaders, which were already available for half a decade by the time the iPad released.

Little did I know how brain rotted people would become.

Tbh I personally still don't see the utility in most tablets, except in specific niches like in digital note taking/drawing, or industrial cases where it becomes a glorified HUD.

[–] Zak@lemmy.world 1 points 4 hours ago

I got my first tablet this year after a long time as a skeptic. It runs Arch, BTW.

Most of the time it has a keyboard attached and I use it like a laptop, but it's nice to be able to watch movies on flights during taxi, takeoff, and landing because tablets and phones are allowed, not laptops.

Gnome is really nice on a touchscreen aside from the terrible onscreen keyboard. KDE is a little rougher, but its onscreen keyboard is decent.

[–] QuandaleDingle@lemmy.world 1 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

Yeah, I think tablets are cool, but if they were full-fledged Windows/Linux computers with mobile app compatibility, they'd be absolutely incredible.

[–] Zak@lemmy.world 1 points 3 hours ago

You can do that today with a Linux tablet and Waydroid. It's more like running the Android apps in a VM than something really well integrated with the Linux environment, but perfect is the enemy of good.

[–] Sturgist@lemmy.ca 5 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

Not me but my dad. He was friends with a guy who was loosely related to someone relatively high up at Google when they first went public. His friend offered him 500 shares at 50¢ a pop. His life right now would have been wildly different.

[–] qevlarr@lemmy.world 4 points 7 hours ago

Did you take share dilution into account? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_dilution

[–] ebolapie@lemmy.world 15 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago)

I wrote a term paper once about how twitter would enable citizen journalism and lead to a more informed public and a healthier, more direct democracy. I got an A.

I was a pretty huge fan of Zune and I still miss it.

[–] CheeseNoodle@lemmy.world 7 points 18 hours ago

You were pretty correct about Apple, it got saved by Microsoft who kept it alive to skirt monopoly laws.

[–] Yaky@slrpnk.net 21 points 1 day ago (3 children)

When Steam first appeared (and was required to play Half-Life 2 IIRC), I thought that was a ridiculous idea to have a middle man to play a game. Well, what do I know, everyone loves Steam now (yet hates on other launchers).

[–] Jeffool@lemmy.world 1 points 4 hours ago

I get it and was very skeptical at the time... But soon after I began to believe they'd stick around, and my annoyance at installing through multiple discs (and also putting discs in the tray to play a game) won out.

[–] nightlily@leminal.space 5 points 15 hours ago

Never stopped hating being forced to use that piece of monopolistic trash ever since I was on dialup when HL2 released. I buy everything I can on GOG.

I especially resent how closed off the Steam Workshop has made the mod ecosystem for a lot of games.

[–] chunes@lemmy.world 6 points 20 hours ago

There are dozens of us who still aren't convinced.

[–] qevlarr@lemmy.world 11 points 21 hours ago (1 children)

Physical buttons on phones would win out over gimmicky touch screens

[–] Trainguyrom@reddthat.com 1 points 54 minutes ago

I remember thinking similarly. Specifically "well duh you'll just be hitting buttons with your face on calls with those dang touchscreen phones" except it turned out I spend way less time on phonecalls than circa 2006 me could have ever imagined, and also the proximity sensor blanking the screen and blocking input works really good (and even did back in the early 2010s when I got my first smartphone)

[–] zerofk@lemmy.zip 9 points 21 hours ago (1 children)

I thought blu-ray would supplant DVD-RW for storing and transferring data, including for buying software. Much like DVD replaced CD, which replaced diskettes. Turns out both were replaced by cloud and streaming, with a short interlude for USB sticks.

Al still have their niches, but buying software and storing data is pretty much all online now.

[–] Trainguyrom@reddthat.com 1 points 50 minutes ago

I thought the advent of 4k TVs would push people over to BluRay because with the codecs available a decade ago you needed a good 40mbit+ for a single 4k stream. Turns out I picked the wrong component of streaming to be the thing that would push people back to physical media.

Also all of that broadband investment that was talked about a decade+ ago actually turned into broadband improvements, so now even my in-laws who live on 8 acres in the sticks outside of a tiny town of 400 or so residents have gigabit FTTH service

[–] xenomor@lemmy.world 95 points 1 day ago (10 children)

In the mid-nineties I passionately believed that the internet would democratize information and usher in a wonderful new era of well-informed critical thinking and general enlightenment. Basically the opposite has happened.

[–] chunes@lemmy.world 5 points 20 hours ago

It kinda did that for a few wonderful years.

[–] SnotFlickerman@lemmy.blahaj.zone 48 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Man I think all of us mistakenly thought this. The early internet had such promise.

[–] kevin2107@lemmy.world 1 points 37 minutes ago

it was like that for a few. now AI will definitely make people braindead, how many years of brainrot can the mind endure?

[–] thelivefive@startrek.website 10 points 22 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago)

I think the Internet still has lots of promise. We just did a capitalism on it. If we can get the cancer out it'll be an amazing thing again.

But I do think some of that early promise was overestimated because mostly smart people were on it then. We thought it was the medium, but it was just techies or people with hobbies or interest that made it that special place, now that your average Joe is there it's mostly shit, but go somewhere with a little barrier to entry (like Lemmy) and it is pretty cool again.

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[–] orclev@lemmy.world 13 points 23 hours ago

In the late 90s I saw a piece demonstrating an optical 3d storage system that had a capacity about an order of magnitude greater than the at the time brand new HD DVD and Bluray discs. I assumed this clearly superior format that already had a working demo would obviously kill other optical media. Turns out nobody could figure out how to manufacture one at a price anybody was willing to spend.

[–] queerlilhayseed@piefed.blahaj.zone 18 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Around 2000, graphene was a very hot material. I was pretty excited by it and thought carbon-based high-Farad capacitors would essentially replace lead acid and lithium ion batteries in most consumer electronics within a decade, maybe two.

[–] nightlily@leminal.space 2 points 15 hours ago

Speaking of carbon, did scientists give up on lengthening carbon nanotubes at some point? They were supposed to be a miracle material as well.

[–] MonkderVierte@lemmy.zip 2 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 16 hours ago)

Probably still a thing. You can't really put more surface in a box. Will just take a bit longer, foundational research and all.

[–] porcoesphino@mander.xyz 16 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I thought cameras on phones were a gimmick. To be fair, they were pretty low quality back then but I still use it to remind myself not to be too overconfident because boy was I wrong.

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