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806

The Big Short Guy Just Bet $1 Billion That the AI Bubble Pops (futurism.com)

submitted 3 days ago by tonytins@pawb.social to c/technology@lemmy.world

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[–] Pulsar@lemmy.world 2 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (3 children)

I have been trying to make sense of all AI Capex announcements for a while and I don't get it. So please help me out if you know the answer.

US Investment in 2024 ~$400b, 2025 ~$500b, 2026 ~600. Global investment 2026 1.5~$2.2t. Let's say $2t US Investment by end of 2026. Investment will continue into the future but let's assume that is not the case. Also that GPU will be obsolete in 5y. So, they have 60m to recoup $2t +ROI ~10%. So about $40b a month, US has a labor force of 170m. Thus, AI industry needs the equivalent of ~$240 per month per each employee. I don't see myself or my employer paying this for AI any time soon.

[–] iii@mander.xyz 1 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

I think Ray Dalio's take on it is correct. It's a consequence of currency devaluation, as people in general vote against the decrease in spending necessary to deflate the asset bubble. (1)

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[–] porcoesphino@mander.xyz 6 points 3 days ago

I think it's a bubble but I'm also suspicious we're near peak investment and think it could sustain for a while yet. I wonder what sort of range he's projecting for the peak and timeframe

[–] supamanc@lemmy.world 5 points 3 days ago

This is a long term investment, predicting that the bubble will burst _at some point _. It doesn't signify that he believes the collapse to be imminent. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent!

[–] melsaskca@lemmy.ca 4 points 3 days ago

I don't like or trust the stock market and all of the back door manipulations that can, and have, been done, but this guy is not wrong.

[–] RizzRustbolt@lemmy.world 1 points 2 days ago

Which would explain why the Fed is dumping trillions of dollars into banks right now.

[–] drmoose@lemmy.world 3 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (2 children)

has bet over $1 billion that the share prices of AI chipmaker Nvidia and software company Palantir will fall

not a very tough bet to make tbh.

very misleading title and literally no commenters could even read the first paragraph here lol. Man the AI hate is truly reaching the looms now

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[–] Corkyskog@sh.itjust.works 1 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Seems like more of a bet specifically on Palantir, unless there are a bunch of other smaller bets they didn't bother to mention.

[–] Tollana1234567@lemmy.today 1 points 2 days ago (1 children)

of all the AI, thiel kept palintir, and his other LOTR-themed Ai companies very secretive. since mossad/IDF, and ukraine uses it, i bet it gives faulty/false positive targeting?

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[–] wowwoweowza@lemmy.world 2 points 3 days ago

Can’t wait.

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