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Either (you genuinely belive) you are 18 (24, 36 does not matter) months away from curing cancer or you're not.
What would we as outsiders observe if they told their investors that they were 18 months away two years ago and now the cash is running out in 3 months?
Now I think the current iteration of AI is trying to get to the moon by building a better ladder, but what do I know.
There's not a single world where LLMs cure cancer, even if we decided to give the entirety of our energy output and water to a massive server using every GPU ever made to crunch away for months.
which fucking sucks, because AI was actually getting good, it could detect tumours, it could figure things fast, it could recognise images as a tool for the visually impaired...
But LLMs are non of those things. all they can do is look like text.
LLMs are an impressive technology, but so far, nearly useless and mostly a nuance.
down in Ukraine we have a dozen or so image analysis projects that can't catch a break because all investors can think about are either swarm drones (quite understandably) or LLM nothingburgers that burn through money and dissipate every nine months. Meanwhile those image analysis projects manage to progress on what is basically scraps and leftovers.
the problem is that technical people can understand the value of different AI tool. but tell an executive with a business major how mind blowing it is that a program trained in Go and StarCraft can solve protein folding (studied biology in 2010 and they kept repeating how impossible solving proteins in silico was).
But a chat bot that tells the executive how smart and special it is?
That's the winner.
Not strictly LLMs, but neural nets are really good at protein folding, something that very much directly helps understanding cancer amount other things. I know an answer doesn't magically pop out, but it's important to recognise the use cases where NN actually work well.
But giving all the resources to LLMs slows/prevents those useful applications of AI.
I'm trying to guess what industries might do well if the AI bubble does burst. I imagine there will be huge AI datacenters filled with so-called "GPUs" that can no longer even do graphics. They don't even do floating point calculations anymore, and I've heard their integer matrix calculations are lossy. So, basically useless for almost everything other than AI.
One of the few industries that I think might benefit is pharmaceuticals. I think maybe these GPUs can still do protein folding. If so, the pharma industry might suddenly have access to AI resources at pennies on the dollar.
integer calculations are lossy because they're integers. There is nothing extra there. Those GPUs have plenty of uses.
And it's clear we're nowhere near achieving true AI, because those chasing it have made no moves to define the rights of an artificial intelligence.
Which means that either they know they'll never achieve one by following the current path, or that they're evil sociopaths who are comfortable enslaving a sentient being for profit.
they’re evil sociopaths who are comfortable enslaving a sentient being for profit.
i mean, look what is happening in the united states. that would be completely unsurprising to happen here.
Um, human history has repeatedly demonstrated that when a new technology emerges, the two highest priorities are:
Ow, that's why they are restricting "organic" porn, to sell AI porn. Damn.
If you've ever wondered why porn sites use pictures of cars, buses, stop signs, traffic lights, bicycles and sidewalks in their captchas, it's because they're using the data to train car-driving AIs to recognize those patterns.
This is not what an imminent breakthrough in cancer research looks like.
We are closer to making horny chatbots than a superintelligence figuring out a cure for cancer.
Actually, if the latter wins, would that super AI win a Nobel prize?
what if my kink is curing cancer?
It would probably go to whoever uses it to find the cure... And to none of the authors who wrote the data that it was trained on
I appreciate that this post is using dark mode
What about an AI naughty nurse that does both?
You can use AI to fulfill your fantasies! for example: having healthcare (if you're not American, this joke does not apply)
No money in curing cancer with an LLM. Heaps of money taking advantage if increasingly alienated and repressed people.
You could sell the cure for a fortune. Imagine something that can reliably cure late stage cancers. You could charge a million for the treatment, easily.
Yes, selling the actual cure would be profitable...but an LLM would only ever provide the text for synthesizing it but none of the extensive testing, licensing, or manufacturing, etc.. An existing pharmaceutical company would have to believe the LLM and then front the costs for the development, testing, and manufacture...which constitutes a large proportion of the costs of bringing a treatment to market. Burning compute time on that is a waste of resources, especially when fleecing horny losers is available right now. It is just business.
There's loads of money in curing cancer. For one you can sell the cure for cancer to people with cancer.
FYI, using openAI/ChatGPT is expensive. Programming it to program users into dependency on its "friendship" gets them to pay for more tokens, and then why not blackmail them or coerce/honeypot them into espionage for the empire. If you don't understand yet that OpenAI is arm of Trump/US military, among its pie in the sky promises is $35B for datacenters in Argentina.
But how else would it find the hard lump on yoir testicles?
