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As the Ukrainian front is losing ground, more and more of the staging and deployment is occurring in neighboring Poland and Slovakia. Moldova just voted in a pro-EU government, after a hotly contested election in which each party accused the other of taking support from foreign neighbors. If they align with Ukraine, that opens up a new route of supply into the south, where Russians have made the largest gains in territory.

We have already seen Russian surveillance drones passing through EU airspace, with attacks running right up to the western-most border (and dipping over depending on which intelligence service you ask). We've already seen incursions into Russian territory that have implied support from Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuiania, with Russian digital offensives retaliating in kind.

Then throw in the wild card of Israel - a country that is taking a lot of political heat from Europe for its genocide in Gaza and the surrounding Arab states - whose PM has long since demonstrated friendly ties with Putin. Not inconceivable that Mossad and the RSB conduct joint operations on a country that has threatened sanctions on Israel over the genocide in Palestine. Hell, the recent sweeping shutdown of airlines across Europe following the condemnation of Israel at the UN is... conspicuous.

You'd think escalating the war would be suicidal for the Russian economy. And you'd think Europe doubling down on Ukraine at this point would be a recipe for more far-right parties winning elections. So they both have strong incentives to de-escalate. Nevertheless, they persist in one of the worst foreign policy follies since WW1. I wouldn't count anything out, at this point.

I think it's because he's become obsessed with the Nobel Peace Prize.

without a reason

Trump wanted to be the guy who Made A Deal with Russia and ended the war. Putin made a big show of the Alaska Summit and then delivered exactly dick-all (which - to be fair - is the smart move when dealing with Trump). At the same time, Starmer's been licking his taint in hopes of winning concessions for the UK tech industry. So now Trump's incredibly sore at being burned by Russian and Starmer-curious.

But this will only last until Ukraine starts "looking like losers" according to his right-wing media friends. I would give it a few more months before he flips back again.

Trump did recently, without a reason, changed his tune to protecting Ukraine again.

It's mostly a distraction scheme to distract from internal problems, I'd say.

That may sound cheer worthy, but considering they very obviously can't handle even 1 front, attacking another country would have to be for a different reason, a more problematic reason.

They should try their luck in Afghanistan again.

Might be testing the skies simply for the intelligence, that is also valued by China and Iran whether or not they plan to actually do anything with the information.

He doesn't share a land border with Moldova. The most likely option is Azerbaijan. Not NATO, lots of recent disagreements, starting an alliance with Armenia and Turkey.

Bait and switch? "Hey everyone look over here!"

Is this you, Ken M?

Poland is ready for it, so probably not. Putin isn't one to start something with someone he knows can fight back. He wants a punching bag.

If the Russians invade Poland, the Muscovites will end up in a hornet's nest. However, I could see the asswipe, Vlad, making attempt to illegally occupy the Suwalki Gap.

I have a pet theory that Putin is attempting to get a big reaction from NATO, so that he can then internally use that as an excuse why the war in Ukraine did not end well, and why they had to ultimately concede points they earlier held they wouldn’t in the eventual peace negotiations.

Not winning against Ukraine would be shameful for him, especially after all the messaging done about Ukraine not even being a real country.

Not winning against the entirety of NATO, on the other hand, sounds reasonable and understandable. But just saying that isn’t very persuasive. He needs imagery of destroyed Russian equipment in another NATO country or something concrete like that, to show that NATO truly is involved and waging war against Russia. That’s would also justify the initial reasoning for this misguided excursion — NATO is indeed warring against us, it was all justified! See these images of dead Russians in the Baltic Sea! The flaming Russian jets! See the havoc the big bad NATO wreaks on us poor Russians! We stand no chance, we have to settle for peace, those bullies are too strong now, and they are evil in their ways! In order to survive, we must concede a bit, lest NATO comes and bombs you and your family in the night like the thugs they are! gesturing at the constant dramatized imagery of destroyed Russian equipment in some NATO region

I’m convinced the economy, despite currently running on the war, is finally slowly collapsing to the point of it being visible to the peasants, perhaps showing inconvenient signs of that with the gas shortages across Russia, whatever else they are trying to keep under wraps. I think it’s starting to get embarrassing unless something changes and they can play victim to some bigger baddie yet again terrorizing good pious Russians. Maybe they have determined they can’t keep the effects contained no longer, and the seams will start to burst soon, so they need something that justifies the peace negotiations and conceding some of their strict conditions for the peace. Otherwise the people might just start seeing how fucked they are and rise up.

Not saying this is why... but in theory if he can go through another country to do an end around on Ukraine, he can trade that other country to keep Ukraine. Or even if nato needs to defend itself, it might not spend as much on defending Ukraine. Just guesses though. And they still seem like bad reasons.