this post was submitted on 22 Sep 2025

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337

German jets scrambled after Russian military plane flies over Baltic Sea (www.theguardian.com)

submitted 4 days ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/world@lemmy.world

62 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Russian Il-20M reconnaissance plane ignored requests to make contact, in latest of what are seen as provocative acts by Kremlin

Two German Eurofighter jets were scrambled on Sunday to intercept a Russian military aircraft above the Baltic Sea, as Estonia said it would call an emergency meeting of the UN security council after Russian planes violated its airspace.

Germany’s air force said the Russian Il-20M reconnaissance plane had switched off its transponders and ignored requests to make contact. The Eurofighters took off from the Rostock-Laage airbase to head off the aircraft as it flew in international airspace.

Tensions between Nato and Russia have been dramatically rising after a series of what European governments say are deliberate, provocative acts by the Kremlin. On Friday, three Russian MiG-31 fighters violated Estonian airspace in the Gulf of Finland. Moscow denies this.

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[–] PhilipTheBucket@piefed.social 104 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (7 children)

See, now you've got a problem. If you'd shot down the first one, Russia would have made a big noise and then it would have been fine. Now that you didn't, now it's weird if you start shooting them down.

My advice is to just be straight about it: Publicly announce what the line is where you'll shoot them down, and then stick to it. Even if you just announced a date when the shooting-down will start any time they enter NATO airspace, that might be fine. But you have to stick to it. Right now you're trying to figure out how to make them stop without shooting them down, and that approach just doesn't work. Like you're all surprised they don't establish radio contact. Bro... that is not the game you are engaged in.

(You might also want to confiscate $10 billion in frozen Russian assets to give to Ukraine for each incursion, just to respond to what's already happened... but again without shooting them down it's not going to accomplish anything. The money's already gone honestly, and they know that, they're just waiting for you to figure it out and go through your whole "process" and make it official, and they think you're stupid and weak for every year that goes by that you're not doing that.)

[–] mgnome@piefed.social 27 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

It comes down to realization that despite Ukrainian politicians seeking those "security guarantees" from allies it's actually the other way around - Ukraine is the security guarantee of Europe, and right now Russians do such bold shit, because they think that Ukraine's defense is about to crumble, so they are already preparing to move further.

So folks being afraid to shoot down Russians who violate their borders simply because they can - is an expected consequence of "we can't help Ukraine, because it'll lead to escalation", while there's just one side doing the escalation, and it's not Ukraine.

[–] brachiosaurus@mander.xyz 7 points 3 days ago (4 children)

so they are already preparing to move further.

They are barely managing the war with ukraine and you want me to believe they are moving further than that? EU countries combined are matching already russia military expenses, they are looking for excuses to boost war industry even more. Check the data and watch out for propaganda.

[–] PhilipTheBucket@piefed.social 4 points 3 days ago (3 children)

EU countries combined are matching already russia military expenses

Check the data

The US plus all partners has sent about $150 billion in total, it looks like, up until the middle of last year: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/ About half of that is EU, so say $75 billion from the EU.

Russia spends about $500 billion per year: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/12/russias-2024-military-spending-surpassed-eu-uk-combined-in-ppp-terms-study-a87974 They have mobilized basically their entire economy to try to win this thing.

What is your source for saying the EU alone is matching Russia? The EU is barely paying attention to the war, because of complacency and a subtle racism. But the idea that the EU is pulling out all the stops like Russia is, or prioritizing making their "defense" contractors rich in this as the US is wont to do, is absurd.

and watch out for propaganda.

Can do! I think I might have found some, I'm not sure.

[–] mgnome@piefed.social 5 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Thank you.

Many folks fail to realize that it absolutely doesn't hurt Putin to send another one or two million of his people to die for his delusions of grandeur. It's not like he's gonna have to start selling his mansions because Russia goes through economic hardships or that his own kids gonna get drafted.

If Russia did things that are logical - they wouldn't invade Ukraine in the first place, not to mention that their invasion and annexations are illegal even by Russian laws and constitution that Putin can rewrite at his whim, but absolutely nobody cares. So expecting a country that breaks its own laws while being an autocracy to follow logic is foolish at best.

[–] PhilipTheBucket@piefed.social 3 points 3 days ago

Yeah. I'm not exactly a geopolitics-man, but my best guess for what's going on with Putin and Russia's strategy here is:

He'd been doing fine with taking over small countries up until 2022, and it generally gave him opportunities for new goodies to give away to his friends and also it's exciting and makes him look like a winner
He's been surrounded by yes men for so long that he's lost his ability to really tell what are good strategies, what is happening, or what's likely to happen in the future

I think the combination means that he's just kind of telling his military to do whatever, including invading Ukraine thinking it would go about the same way as Georgia, Crimea, Chechnya, and the US elections. I do think he benefits from a certain amount of native cunning in this particular brinksmanship with NATO, and of course it doesn't take too much detailed understanding of facts on the ground to just fly some planes around in their airspace and flip people off, but also I think in general this latest chapter of Russia is just a pretty good demonstration of why authoritarianism doesn't make for effective countries.

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[–] D_C@sh.itjust.works 15 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Shoot it down. That cunt putin won't do it again in a hurry.

[–] Tja@programming.dev 14 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Turkey didn't hesitate and doesn't have any more problems with Russians violating their airspace.

[–] 87Six@lemmy.zip 4 points 3 days ago

"But it would put NATO law into questioning" the fuck is he going to do about that? Send more of his men to die wearing trash bags running in open fields?

[–] probable_possum@leminal.space 22 points 3 days ago (3 children)

What's the aim here?
Testing the west?
Numbing NATOs reaction through repetition? - crying wolf repeatedly worked well for Hamas, but it is a bit different here.
Some domestic politics related demonstration of power like Sapad25?

[–] FishFace@lemmy.world 15 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Yes, yes, yes, and also trying to scare European countries into not supporting Ukraine, either out of fear for further angering Russia, or fear that they need their equipment closer to home.

[–] probable_possum@leminal.space 2 points 3 days ago

Sounds plausible. Thanks

[–] Pandoras_Can_Opener@mander.xyz 15 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

William Spaniel speculates on his YouTube channel that Putin might want to provoke a shoot down to then claim NATO is the agressor. Which he may hope would rally his own people into accepting another conscription wave.

[–] vga@sopuli.xyz 4 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

He's losing the war and is thus expecting a loss of support for the war. So he needs to extend the war or he's dead. And he cannot just attack another country again.

What we need to do is exactly the opposite of what he wants us to do. Which I think we are doing.

[–] probable_possum@leminal.space 2 points 3 days ago

Game theory? He needs the west to do what he told his people the west would do?

But he doesn't need the NATO to actually attack to substantiate his rhetoric. Or does he?

[–] ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net 22 points 3 days ago (2 children)

That's it! This time they are not getting away with it. WE'RE CALLING A FUCKING MEETING!

NATO

[–] zaphod@sopuli.xyz 5 points 3 days ago

It wasn't in NATO airspace though, that was the one last week.

[–] kbobabob@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 3 days ago (1 children)

I guess whoever the person calling the meeting is should just skip the meeting and unilaterally attack Russia?

[–] ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net 2 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Are you suggesting they are calling the meeting to organize an attack on Russia? I hope not because that's ridiculous.

They will be discussing how NATO should respond to provocations from Russia, something they should already know. NATO should have communicated clear red lines and how they will respond to Russia violating them 3 years ago, not start thinking about it today.

[–] kbobabob@lemmy.dbzer0.com 5 points 3 days ago (3 children)

You sound angry they want to have a meeting instead of doing something. What is it you want them to do that doesn’t involve having a meeting?

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[–] DaddleDew@lemmy.world 35 points 4 days ago

Weird how Putin doesn't seem affected by Trump's aura of respect that would prevent him from daring to attack the West like Donnie claimed he was.

[–] A_norny_mousse@feddit.org 13 points 3 days ago (1 children)

I think it's time the EU collectively takes Kaliningrad. Then Russia has no more pretext for flying around there and every violation becomes a proper act of aggression.

(am I joking? Well I'm definitely not a military expert)

[–] thatKamGuy@sh.itjust.works 4 points 3 days ago (2 children)

Honestly feels like this should be a given once Putin falls, in the grand scheme of things.

Biggest question is whether it would be absorbed into Poland or Lithuania, or become its own SAR under the EU.

[–] lietuva@lemmy.world 2 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

Historically it has been offered to Lithuania few times and every time the offer was declined. There's a lot of ethnic Russians and with Lithuania having small population would had caused many internal problems probably similar events as in Crimea would had happened and struggle for the independence had been much harder.

[–] A_norny_mousse@feddit.org 2 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

Not sure what SAR means but yeah, I meant something collectively owned by EU. Maybe their biggest defense base.

(I'm still just fantasizing)

[–] thatKamGuy@sh.itjust.works 3 points 3 days ago

I meant it as Special Autonomous/Administrative Region, akin to how Hong Kong used to be prior to the Chinese Government crackdowns.

So ostensibly a self-governing region.

It’s a nice fantasy, which I’ll happily share with you.

[–] Blackfeathr@lemmy.world 9 points 3 days ago (1 children)

How long is literally everybody going to let Russia get away with these stupid stunts?

[–] Zron@lemmy.world 8 points 3 days ago (4 children)

How long until Russia doesn’t have nukes?

[–] learningduck@programming.dev 6 points 3 days ago

Are they gonna risk trading nukes over a plane? They shot some passenger planes without getting any punishment.

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[–] Professorozone@lemmy.world 6 points 3 days ago (1 children)

I don't understand. If he can't even take down the Ukraine, how does he expect to take on NATO nations?

[–] Bamboodpanda@lemmy.world 7 points 3 days ago (2 children)

Flying a spy plane over the Baltic with transponders off isn’t random; it’s deliberate pressure. These flights let Russia probe NATO’s readiness, time responses, and gather electronic intelligence when allied radars and comms light up. They also normalize risk: forcing constant intercepts drains resources and tests cohesion among allies.

At home, the Kremlin can showcase defiance; abroad, it signals that even after Sweden joined NATO, Russia will not accept being boxed out of the Baltic. The aim is not a direct clash but erosion of deterrence, unity, and stamina. By staying in the “gray zone,” Moscow keeps initiative, trying to distract support for Ukraine, stress-test NATO, and look for weak links it can exploit.

[–] missfrizzle@discuss.tchncs.de 4 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

They also normalize risk: forcing constant intercepts drains resources and tests cohesion among allies.

it also keeps defensive forces sharp, by giving them practice, and strengthens cohesion by highlighting the shared threat NATO protects its members from.

the Soviets did this for decades. it's still part of their military doctrine, I guess. though it seems counterproductive to me.

[–] Professorozone@lemmy.world 2 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Yeah all countries do that, but the end game still doesn't make sense to me.

[–] Bamboodpanda@lemmy.world 3 points 3 days ago

There may not be a clear end game, but sometimes just stirring things up is the point. It creates openings and exposes weaknesses, and that in itself can serve as a strategy. He has very little to risk compared to what he might gain, so constant provocation makes sense from his perspective.

[–] fort_burp@feddit.nl 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

A lot of people here encouraging shooting down a plane flying in international airspace. I suspect a lot of you are of the same mindset where it's OK to shoot random boats in the Caribbean and kill everyone on board.

Don't follow the war hawks ffs.

[–] missfrizzle@discuss.tchncs.de 5 points 2 days ago

I'm fine shooting down hostile fighter jets the second they cross into sovereign airspace, and not a moment sooner.

the Soviets used to fly fighters close to Western airspace to probe our defenses. we'd intercept, and if they crossed over we'd take them down. this is nothing new.

[–] betterdeadthanreddit@lemmy.world 8 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Too many weaselly people-pleasers making the decisions so they back off instead of risking a little apocalyptic super-war. Now we get this "I'm not touching you (with guns and missiles (yet))" bullshit that drags on forever instead. Enough foreplay and edging, it's time to fuck.

[–] prex@aussie.zone 2 points 3 days ago

~i don't want to be fucked~

[–] barnaclebutt@lemmy.world 4 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (2 children)

I guess it's time to move battleships into the black sea ( which should have been done a long time ago)

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