2014 → 2016: Oil Price Collapse & CapEx Cuts What happened: Crude oil prices plunged from over $100/barrel in mid‑2014 to below $30 by early 2016.
Impact: All four companies saw steep market cap declines as revenues fell and capital expenditure plans were slashed. ConocoPhillips, more exposed to upstream volatility, dropped the most.
2016 → 2018: Recovery & OPEC+ Cuts What happened: OPEC+ production cuts and gradual demand recovery lifted oil prices back toward $70/barrel.
Impact: Market caps rebounded, with Shell and Chevron benefiting from integrated operations and downstream stability.
2018 → 2020: Trade Tensions & COVID‑19 Shock What happened: Late‑2018 oil price volatility from U.S.–China trade tensions was followed by the 2020 pandemic, which caused an unprecedented demand collapse.
Impact: Market caps plunged in 2020 — Shell and Exxon hit multi‑year lows, and ConocoPhillips fell below $50B.
2020 → 2022: Energy Price Supercycle What happened: Post‑pandemic demand recovery, supply constraints, and the Russia–Ukraine conflict in 2022 drove oil prices above $100/barrel.
Impact: All four companies surged in value, with ExxonMobil and Chevron hitting decade highs. ConocoPhillips more than tripled from its 2020 low.
2022 → 2023: Price Normalization What happened: Oil prices eased from 2022 peaks as supply stabilized and recession fears grew.
Impact: Market caps dipped slightly, though still well above pre‑pandemic levels.
2023 → 2025 (YTD): Diverging Strategies & Investor Sentiment What happened:
ExxonMobil hit record highs (~$481B) on strong refining margins and disciplined spending.
Chevron rebounded sharply in 2025 after strategic acquisitions and buybacks.
Shell faced investor pressure over its energy transition pace, keeping valuations more muted.
ConocoPhillips stabilized after earlier gains, reflecting a more balanced oil price outlook.
Data Source: MarketCapWatch