How different are the two languages?
Ukraine
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Couldn’t it also be because the eastern provinces where russian was most widely spoken aren’t under ukranian control (ie. surveyed) anymore
Russian was very widely used in regions that aren't currently occupied as well. For example, Kyiv, where I live.
Before the war just one friend of mine switched. After the start, virtually every one did.
To your direct question, ruZZia occupied 1% of territory from the beginning of the full invasion. No big cities, iirc. So a lot of people affected, but not a lot a lot to introduce statistical change if that scale.