Honestly, my instincts have saved my ass too many times, twice with really big decisions
this post was submitted on 12 Aug 2025
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When it comes to individuals, I'm pretty accurate, but for larger geopolitical moves, not so much. As a therapist in training, this does not displease me, lol.
I’ve predicted nine of the last five recessions!
Depends on what it is. So far I have a perfect track record for predicting tomorrow’s arrival.
I've correctly predicted the result of every US & UK election (plus the brexit referendum) since 2016, based mostly on vibes
UK too, impressive.
Way too accurate and I don't like it.
I won't say 100%, but they're generally pretty good. Big ones I can think of:
- They're going to apply every attack against Kamala Harris that they did against Biden
- Trump is going to be infinitely worse for the Palestinians even than Biden was
The first is a little bit qualified I guess. I was somewhat against replacing Biden for that reason (definitely before the debate), which was absolutely a mistake. But I think in retrospect, the way that they were able to blame Kamala Harris for Gaza and inflation and make it work was pretty spot-on to what I predicted.
The second one, people were furiously telling me how wrong I was, how impossible it would be for anyone to be worse than Biden, and in early days saying that Trump had achieved a cease-fire and it was just proof of how easy it would have been if only Biden had put some slight effort to it.
I knew you would make this post 5 months ago…
I predict 1000 (mostly useless) things a day: the weather, coworker conversation topics, the next presidential scandal, etc...
But I only remember the big ones. Or the silly ones.
I'm still wrong most of the time.
This is why I do not gamble.
I got on both the Bitcoin and LLM trains really early. I was actually a bit premature in the collapse of the old US, although I'd like to be awarded points for even tracking it back when people thought normal would last forever.
There's also a vast, vast number of things I know I can't predict, though. Like what will happen in the very short term where I could actually speculate on things financially.
I have a few lists of predictions I've posted on here, we'll see what they look like in a couple decades.