this post was submitted on 02 Oct 2023
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New preamble:

Palestinian resistance groups have launched an operation in and around Gaza to fight the genocidal settler state oppressing them. Thousands of rockets have been launched towards the so-called state of Israel, overwhelming the Iron Dome. Settlers and the troops protecting them are being killed in the settlements surrounding Gaza, with many caught by surprise in the first few hours of the operation.

Palestinians are taking many Israeli settlers and soldiers hostage and bringing them back to Gaza. An Israeli general, Nimrod Aloni, has been confirmed captured. Palestinians are also taking military and civilian equipment back. Drones and MANPADS appear to be in use, and a number of Merkava tanks have been destroyed/disabled and their occupants removed and taken hostage. Palestinian forces appear to be heading in two main directions so far: southeast in the direction of Be'er Sheva, and along the coast in the direction of Ashkelon, but settlements all around Gaza have been assaulted and taken. It is obviously unknown how far they intend to go, or what their intermediate goals are.

Israel is bombing the Gaza Strip with aircraft, destroying buildings. It appears that their intelligence on the location of Palestinian forces outside of Gaza is very poor, and haven't been able to meaningfully strike them. Netanyahu has given a statement declaring that Israel is in a state of war. Iran has issued statements in support of the uprising, and Israel has responded with hostility to those comments. In all, the IDF appears to still be in a shockingly bad state hours after the assault began.


Old preamble on Antarctica:

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Much of the information for this news post, including both the images in the preamble, came from this article at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, which has been circulating in the media lately.

Image has been taken from this article.


Antarctica has had a uniquely bad year.

While the sea ice extent in the last 50 years or so has been very gradually declining, it has done so very slowly on average - by 0.1% per decade. This began to change in 2016:

Even so, this year is different, showing a remarkable decrease in the maximum sea ice extent. It is unconfirmed (I think) but this year may be the first in which the maximum extent fails to reach 17 million square kilometers - and is more than one million square kilometers lower than the previous record low maximum in 1986.

The fall in sea ice has been linked by some researchers to warming in the uppermost ocean layer caused by lateral and upward mixing of warmer water. The ocean is a gigantic heat sink, and has been absorbing much of the excess heat that humanity has generated via the greenhouse effect. But put enough heat into a heat sink and it will eventually fill up.

These changes in sea ice extent is no mere abstract climate worry or scientific curiosity. It is having a direct, catastrophic impact on the Antarctic's ecosystem. Emperor penguin colonies have had trouble breeding, so much so that:

...there is high probability that no chicks had survived last year in four of the five known emperor penguin colonies in the central and eastern Bellingshausen Sea. This was because the sea ice had melted well before chicks would have developed waterproof feathers. ... Today's report says about one-third of the 62 known emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica were affected by partial or total sea ice loss between 2018 and 2022.

And, last year, scientists conducted a study on the two plants that are able to grow near Antarctica, looking at a single Antarctic island for simplicity, and found that the populations of these plants had exploded in the last decade - growing as much in the last decade as they had in the last 50 years - due to rising air temperatures. It was warm enough for the scientists to wear shorts and remove their shirts.


The Country of the Week is Syria! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.


Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

The weekly update is here!

Links and Stuff


The bulletins site is down.

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can.


Resources For Understanding The War


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.

Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Almost every Western media outlet.

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Last week's discussion post.


(page 19) 50 comments
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[–] notceps@hexbear.net 24 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I got an article from switzerland again, from SRF which is basically swiss bbc/pbs.

What now, Wolodimir Selenski?

The Pro-Ukraine-Alliance is in danger of falling apart. How dangerous is the situation for Ukraine? Three scenarios.

Russias raid on the ukraine has claimed tens of thousands of lives and devestated cities and infrastucture. The fact that the ukranian forces were able to defend their country was thanks to support from a broad coalition of nations. Alone from the USA there was weapons, munitions and additional military support worth more than 40bn dollars. (Quite a bit more than that but whatever.)

But after one and a half years of war there's a danger of the Pro-Ukraine-Alliance, which consists of mainly NATO-Countries, to fall apart. The support is in danger of shrinking.

Ukraine Scepticism grows

After a dispute over grain between Poland and the Ukraine escalated, the Polish head of government threatened to end arms deliveries. In Slovakia , a party won the weekend's election whose leader rejects further aid to the Ukraine.

And in the USA, a government shutdown could only be averted with an interim budget without additional funds for the Ukraine. Only the funds that have already been ratified will be paid out. What happens after that is unclear.

In general, the USA threatens to become a less reliable partner. Politicians from the right fraction of the republican party brought the chairman of the large parliamentary chamber, their party colleague Kevin McCarthy to fall.

McCarthy already had made critical comments about Ukraine. It is unclear what they want to achieve with all the aid: "What's the Plan for Victory?". The party-hardliners go even further and call for the immediate stop of all military aid.

The situation for the Ukraine and for Ukrainian President Wolodimir Selenski is becoming increasingly uncomfortable. What scenarios could declining support result in?

Scenario One: The Ukraine falls

Without american help, the core of western support will collapse. It is only a matter of time before russian tanks take over the ukranian capital Kiev and a pro-russian puppet president takes Selenskis place.

The result: The USA's reputation is ruined; In countries like Japan, South Korea or Taiwan they are losing their credibility as a protective power against China. A rather unlikely scenario.

Scenario Two: The Ukraine shrinks

This scenario is more likely, skepticism about the Ukraine continues to grow in the west and with it the pressure on Selenski to reach an agreement with russian leader Wladimir Putin. The Ukraine leaves the Crimean Peninsula and the Donbass Basin to him. This fits with the promise of the american former and perhaps soon-to-be-re-President Donald Trump, according to which he would make peace with Selenski and Putin "within 24 hours".

This agreement however will lead to the fall of Selenski. Most of the Ukrainians reject concessions, they don't trust a peace with Putin. Who would annex more areas should opportunity arise. (Fucking citations needed)

Scenario Three: Russian-Ukrainian standoff

A third scenario seems most likely: The Ukraine continues to fight. Western support is decreasing but not disappearing. The war drags on, with little movement at the front, fewer victims than today -- but for years without a cease fire or even a peace treaty. (There could always be MINSK III)

Instead of the "plan for victory" there would be a stalemate: The Ukraine would remain as an independent state, the nuclearpower Russia would be spared the shame of defeat -- and thus the hope the danger of nuclear war would be averted. (Sure doesn't feel like the west is all that concerned about nuclear war but what do I know)

Obviously there's a lot of cope and all that but it is interesting to see mainstream news here think that a Ukrainian victory is now impossible. Also I had a major headache so my translation is probably shitty you can see the original here

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[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 24 points 2 years ago (1 children)

The US has shot down a Turkish drone in Syria.

“At approximately 11:30 local time, a Turkish UAV reentered the ROZ and headed to where US forces were located. US commanders assessed the UAV, which was now less than half a kilometer from US forces, to be a potential threat, and US F-16 fighters subsequently shot down the UAV in self-defense,” it added.

The statement goes on to say that after talks with the Turkish defense minister, there “are no indications that Turkiye was intentionally targeting US forces,” vowing to continue “closely coordinating” with Ankara. This incident marks the first time Washington has engaged in a confrontation with its NATO ally in Syria.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 24 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Pedro Sanchez Set for Fresh Bid to Form Government in Spain

He has until Nov. 27 to form a government. Otherwise, Parliament will be dissolved and new elections called for January.

On Tuesday, Pedro Sanchez, leader of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), was nominated by King Felipe to try and form the country's new government.

Sanchez, who has been acting prime minister since the July 23 general election, will now conduct talks with political party leaders with the aim of establishing a viable coalition government.

His opportunity comes after the leader of the right-wing People's Party, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, last week lost two investiture votes in Congress.

"I have accepted the responsibility given to me by His Majesty the King to be a candidate to be invested as prime minister," Sanchez said, adding that he felt "honored and responsible to the whole of Spanish society."

It will not be easy for Sanchez to gain the support needed to win an investiture vote. The PSOE has the support of its 121 legislators, who would be joined by 31 legislators of the left-wing Sumar party and predictably six legislators of Basque Country Unite (EH Bildu) and five nationalist legislators of the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV).

Currently, in full negotiation are the votes of 14 pro-independence lawmakers of The Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Together for Catalonia (Junts).

Sanchez will not seek the votes of the right-wing Popular Party (PP), the far-right Vox, the regional UPN, and the Canarian Coalition to return as prime minister.

This progressive politician has until Nov.27 to form a government, otherwise, Parliament will be dissolved and new elections called for January.

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[–] edge@hexbear.net 23 points 2 years ago (1 children)
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[–] ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net 23 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (2 children)

yoo... first map of rumoured occupations ..

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