cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/3671495
- European leaders will meet Japanese and Chinese counterparts, with high expectations for defense and trade cooperation with Tokyo, but limited hopes for discussions in Beijing.
- The European delegation expects to reach no substantial deals from the Chinese meeting, aiming for a "substantive, open, direct, good and constructive conversation", according to one official.
- In Japan, the leaders plan to sign agreements on defense industry cooperation and economic security, and launch a "competitiveness alliance" to enhance economic and trade cooperation, according to European officials.
European leaders will meet their Japanese and Chinese counterparts this week, with high expectations for better defense and trade cooperation with Tokyo contrasting sharply with limited hopes for discussions in Beijing.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa will travel to Asia this week, first meeting Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Wednesday in Tokyo, then Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang on Thursday in Beijing.
In Japan, the leaders plan to sign agreements on defense industry cooperation and economic security, according to European officials who briefed journalists ahead of the meeting. However, there is no expectation of a joint statement from the summit meeting in Beijing, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The European delegation expects to reach no substantial deals from the Chinese meeting, aiming only for a “substantive, open, direct, good and constructive conversation,” one of the officials said. Europe hopes to make clear what it wants Beijing to do to fix unsustainable economic relations and rebalance ties, the official said.
“The atmosphere of China-Europe relations has become delicate before the summit,” said Cui Hongjian, a former Chinese diplomat who teaches at Beijing Foreign Studies University. “Some favorable conditions, such as Trump’s tariffs, could bring both sides closer, but other unfavorable conditions, like their differences on the Ukraine issue, are preventing better China-Europe relations.”
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An agreement on climate change cooperation might emerge, though even that remains uncertain, one official said.
Ties between the EU and China have deteriorated since the pandemic, with European complaints spanning Beijing’s trade practices and its support for Moscow.
For Brussels, cooperation between Chinese and Russian firms that supports Moscow’s military industrial complex despite European sanctions is a particular point of contention. The EU on Friday sanctioned two Chinese banks and five China-based companies as part of its latest measures against Russia over the Ukraine invasion. The move marked the first European sanctions against Chinese banks and prompted protest from Beijing, which promised a response that would safeguard and protect its own firms.
Despite that, China said Tuesday that it welcomed the visit, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun saying that “China stands ready to work with the EU through a successful summit to send out a positive message of China and the EU being committed to strengthening partnership and upholding multilateralism and open cooperation.”
Highlighting European trade frustrations, China’s goods trade surplus in the first half of this year rose to a record for any six-month period, according to data released last week. Fast-growing Chinese exports and shrinking imports pushed the surplus to almost $143 billion through June, the highest on record, even though the first half of the year is typically slower before shipments pick up ahead of the holidays.
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In contrast, the visit to Japan will announce initiatives to build upon what the European officials described as “our closest strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific region.” They said the steps will cover defense and security, industrial policy, foreign interference and manipulation, business competitiveness, as well as cooperation between the EU and countries in the CPTPP, a free trade agreement among 12 nations in the Asia-Pacific region and the UK.
Japan and the EU plan to launch a “competitiveness alliance” to enhance their economic and trade cooperation, according to the officials. They are also set to cooperate on a large-scale satellite network in order to break away from depending on US firms such as SpaceX, according to the Nikkei newspaper.
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[Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru] Ishiba, whose ruling coalition suffered a historic election loss on Sunday, is under pressure to reach a deal with the US before an Aug. 1 deadline for higher tariffs.
The EU and Japan also held their first “security and defense dialogue” last month. One official noted that the EU and Japan would express their joint opposition to any attempt to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait by force or coercion, a remark aimed at China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory.