Op-ed by Federico Fubini, Editor-at-large at Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera.
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We know that within Russia, the war has brought something resembling a 1930s-style fascist regime, though the Kremlin is relying on financial inducements, not just conscription, to feed the meat grinder. In the Samara region, the signing bonus for anyone who agrees to fight reached a record 4 million rubles (€37,700) in January.
Obviously, such large payments for military service in Ukraine reflect growing reluctance on the part of would-be soldiers. While former president Dmitry Medvedev reports that 175,000 men have signed up for the army in the first five months of this year, Mediazona estimates that 51,000 Russian died on the battlefield just in the second half of 2024. Perhaps Putin will still be able to recruit more than 30,000 per month, or perhaps not. In Samara, the bonus hike was reminiscent of how some gyms market memberships: the best perks were valid only for those who signed up by 1 February.
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The need to increase payments reflects Russians’ growing recognition of the odds of dying in Ukraine. In provincial areas such as Kurgan, located where the Urals and Siberia meet, cemeteries are being expanded. Nationwide, the “exit” bonus for dead soldiers’ families has nearly doubled.
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Still, Putin will likely avoid another mobilisation of conscripts. When he tried that in September 2022, public support for his “special military operation” seemed to take a hit. He also undoubtedly remembers the Soviet misadventure in Afghanistan. The reason those 15,000 fallen soldiers mattered so much politically was that most of them had never chosen to go fight. Moreover, they were drafted not only from the Soviet periphery but also from Moscow and St. Petersburg, where the losses affected cultural elites, undermining the system’s credibility.
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The courts are also playing a role. “I have followed hundreds of interviews with prisoners of war, obituaries, stories of soldiers among my acquaintances and family,” the exiled dissident Maria Vyushkova told me. “In recent weeks, I have come across three similar cases: [Russian] men who ended up on trial for minor offences and were pushed by judges to join the army under the threat of heavy sentences.”
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Meanwhile, the average age of new recruits is rising, with men over 60 joining those on the front line. Even authorised media outlets report cases of wounded soldiers being savagely beaten if they refuse to return to the front before fully recovering.
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Ironically, Russia’s military problems confirm the Kremlin’s total identification with war. Russia has been at war for 19 of Putin’s 21 years in power. Bent on revising the European order that emerged after the Soviet Union’s collapse, Putin has created a regime that is willing to make choices that appear senseless to democratic societies.
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