this post was submitted on 19 Jul 2025
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Ukraine

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Weapons sales and a 50 days ultimatum to Putin - Anders Puck Nielsen (www.logicofwar.com)
submitted 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) by Eyekaytee@aussie.zone to c/ukraine@sopuli.xyz
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[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 16 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

If Russia can somehow maintain this offensive for 50 more days it will be the end of itself as a military power, this isn't just about how much attrition Russia can stomach, 50 more days of this kind of fighting and MAJOR failures are going to start to happen as Ukraine counterattacks more and more. This is a slippery slope for Russia, but it is not a SMOOTH slippery slope at a constant grade. There are cliffs on this slippery slope and Russia is headed straight for them.

I just don't see Russia sliding at a smooth rate like this for 50 days without launching off at least one or two huge cliffs along the way, smooth perfect descent is not how the phenomena of collapse tends to behave in nature. This won't existentially threaten the Russian war effort immediately but it will make forecasting with confidence what the near future entails for the Russian military much harder, which is another way of saying this is the beginning of the end for Russia in this war.

50 days is an eternity right now, Trump is stalling because he has on some level realized Russia is about to get its ass kicked and he doesn't want to look like he is friends with a loser. The european and global arms market has decisively consolidated around defending Ukraine in the past month or so and I think as stupid as Trump is he knows when to throw "allies" under the bus at an instinctual level because that is pretty much the only play in Trump's Big Beautiful Playbook.

The good news is, if I am right it means people close to Trump are telling him that Russia's outlook is far less rosy than western media is portraying things.

TL;DR My argument is that Trump hasn't changed his mind, he still wants Putin to win but his inherent selfishness and fear of being caught on the losing side is overpowering that right now. What Trump fears more than Putin losing is being associated with Putin as he loses. I interpret these actions by Trump as purely defensive strategic moves to make it appear like Trump isn't totally bought and sold to Putin and associated cronies in one way or another not because it looks corrupt but because it looks weak.