Despite the leadership of Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa (PGZ), the largest defense conglomerate in Poland, expressing doubt that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) use 4,000 to 9,000 rounds per day, this does not change the fact that Poland is indeed expanding ammunition production. Moreover, they are doing so based on strategic approaches.
In particular, in an interview with the Polish publication Money, where the doubt was expressed, PGZ Vice President Arkadiusz BΔ k explained how PGZ plans to implement a rather ambitious plan to increase the production of 155mm ammunition ninefold β from the current 20,000 large-caliber shells per year to 150,000β180,000 units annually.
From a previous article
BΔ k stated that PGZ plans to produce between 150,000 and 180,000 units of 155mm ammunition annually β roughly 12,500 to 15,000 shells per month. These will be modern, base-bleed extended-range shells capable of reaching targets at 40 kilometers.
However, when asked whether such figures are sufficient β given that Ukraine is reported to be using between 4,000 and 6,000 155mm shells per day, and up to 9,000 during intensified combat β BΔ k dismissed these numbers as "significantly inflated."
"If one were to calculate how many howitzers each [side] has and their so-called service life, meaning the number of shots they can fire, it would turn out that all of them would need to be repaired every week. These numbers are significantly inflated, as are all wartime data. The data we receive from our military, which is verifiable through access to the source, is difficult to correlate with Ukrainian military information, or even journalistic information," BΔ k said.
This is bitterly funny, I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine inflated it's numbers somewhat (then again I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't) but I don't think they are off an order of magnitude here or anything, I think Ukraine has more artillery than it is letting on and it is firing as absolutely many shells as it can. I think Polish military personnel might be rudely surprised if they hung out around a Ukrainian artillery battery for awhile, or rode in a self propelled artillery vehicle for a couple of days observing firing missions...
According to Defense Express, based on verified data publicly shared during the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi's report on August 20, 2024, Ukraine had been using on average 14,600 artillery shells, and Russia used 44,500 shells daily as of the summer of 2024.
Even considering that a significant portion of these were indeed Soviet-made shells (not just 152mm but also 122mm), it is clear that Ukraine's defense forces had been using at least thousands of 155mm shells daily, even a year ago.