Ukraine

...or Putin sends him a frowny face and it's TACO time.

I understand and agree with your extreme skepticism of anything that comes out of Trump's mouth. It doesn't mean anything.

However, in paying attention to his actions I think Trump has realized his plan where his "buddy" Putin wins against Ukraine easily in a big summer offensive and that allows a whole bunch of other political changes to be made globally that Trumped wanted...

...I think Trump saw the western military industrial complex of the world consolidate around assisting Ukraine decisively, and Trump realized selfishly that he would look weak and stupid if he was left being Putin's only bud....

This DOESN'T mean Trump won't flip flop, but it means the flip flop was done out of fear by Trump, which gives it potentially much more staying power I think.

Additionally, Trump desperately needs a win to recover any kind of public mandate, Trump is far too weak to attach himself to a losing dictator that the rest of the world is containing by building the thrust of the western military industrial complex on top of beating Russia and actually committing to it.

This means that the further this goes, the more Trump will begin to rely on "Trump does patriotic thing by signing off on big weapon for Ukraine" as it is an easy way to curry political favor across the political spectrum whether it makes consistent sense for Trump goes against his strategic aims or royally pisses off his collaborators it doesn't matter, he is simply to sloppy and too lazy not to use the "genuinely arm Ukraine with some crazy shit those corrupt Dems would have NEVER given Ukraine" strategy to curry political favor and leverage.

What disturbs me about the fecklessness of centrist Democrats in power up until now is that as Trump helps participate superficially in a decisive defense of Ukraine it will be extremely good for his popularity because Democrats failed to terribly to provide an inspiring alternative... which is why I think Trump will ultimately do it even though it goes against everything he stands for (being a corrupt piece of shit who worships dictators). It is an childishly simple way to beat the corrupt centrist politicians who precipitated the conditions the US is in now because it relies on exploiting the same cancer that allowed Trump to rise to power in the first place.