this post was submitted on 15 Jul 2025
239 points (97.6% liked)

Economics

915 readers
161 users here now

founded 2 years ago
 

If Trump gets his way and removes Jerome Powell as chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the market reaction would be swift and brutal, Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos argues.

It could collapse the currency and bond markets, he says in a note seen by Fortune. Polymarket puts the chances of a Powell ouster at 19%.

“We consider the removal of Chair Powell as one of the largest underpriced event risks,” Saravelos says.

top 50 comments
sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[–] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 52 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

I mean shit, the entire global economy almost collapsed because a boat got turned sideways.

Whatever this would represent, catastrophic isn't enough of a word for it.

[–] TheReturnOfPEB@reddthat.com 16 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)
[–] TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world 3 points 2 weeks ago

“I’ve been so worried about losing my old life that I forgot about all the exciting new chapters that lay ahead. I could’ve never seen Ever coming, but now that he’s here, I’m thrilled by what else lies on the road ahead.”

Well then it was all worth it, wasn't it?

[–] sh00g@lemmy.zip 48 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Given how the markets have at this point have elected to completely ignore Trump it wouldn't surprise me if the sky falls for two days and then the world collectively decides to ignore and forget the shit show.

My thoughts exactly. The billionaires control enough of the markets that they will force a correction and everyone will buy back in... and the billionaires will get even richer.

<heyiveseenthisone.png>

[–] chaogomu@lemmy.world 21 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

Part of that is high frequency trading. Computers that blindly trade with other computers. It has a stabilizing effect on the market because it's divorced from reality.

But there's the risk. It's divorced from reality.

So far, when things go bad the Fed has stepped in to halt trading for the day.

[–] Zron@lemmy.world 3 points 2 weeks ago

I hate that we evaluate the health of the economy by the growth in the stock market.

The stock market would continue growing until the power grid failed if every human on earth just evaporated into mist.

Actually it would probably break before that when one of 6 people’s two factor authentication timed out and the computer no longer had access to their accounts.

[–] expatriado@lemmy.world 39 points 2 weeks ago

he will say Powell is fired, buy lots of bonds and stocks, and then say just kidding, and sell again

[–] Tollana1234567@lemmy.today 20 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

and you, Duestche bank, helped him and the russians do it via laundering money for him.

[–] geissi@feddit.org 3 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Duestche bank

Deutsche Bank

[–] Nico_198X@europe.pub 9 points 2 weeks ago

Douche Bank

[–] Treczoks@lemmy.world 16 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Well, the USD as far overrated, so any correction is a) needed and b) painful.

The only hope is that a breakdown of US economy will be remembered as made by Trump and the GOP.

[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 3 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (3 children)

USD is already down 15% to the Euro as of the start of the year.

I think that's what people seem to miss, here. Not the risk of a stock market crash but of a massive inflationary surge as domestic dollars rapidly outstrip natural resources. We're staring down the barrel of Stagflation.

load more comments (3 replies)
[–] shalafi@lemmy.world 15 points 2 weeks ago

Been waiting on Trump's temper to get the best of him. You know the people around him are manipulating him in every way possible to avoid firing Powell. This is a thing he can't lie, cheat or walk back. Most of all, it would instantly devastate the rich. And then the rest of us of course.

Great article that hits hard on a subject I've been thinking on.

[–] awaysaway@sh.itjust.works 11 points 2 weeks ago (6 children)

what is the upside for MAGA of devaluing USD?

[–] explodicle@sh.itjust.works 12 points 2 weeks ago

They want to destroy America because corporate centrists already destroyed their rural communities.

[–] wise_pancake@lemmy.ca 11 points 2 weeks ago

Stock market numbers go higher

[–] Typotyper@sh.itjust.works 10 points 2 weeks ago

American manufactured products are cheaper on the world market.

Raw resources are more expensive to import so source everything form the US

[–] match@pawb.social 4 points 2 weeks ago

making more money is good, but lowering the worth of your workers is another way to afford more people

[–] teamevil@lemmy.world 4 points 2 weeks ago

Cheaper for the 1% to buy all of our stuff to fully become a corrupt nation of oligarchy.

[–] Ushmel@lemmy.world 3 points 2 weeks ago

Easier to pay down debts made up of worthless money (if you have money that isn't worthless). If you had €100 in November 2024, you could pay off $100 debt. Right now you only need €85 to pay off $100 debt.

[–] TankovayaDiviziya@lemmy.world 6 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

I'd allow it so that people will finally realise.

[–] Ushmel@lemmy.world 2 points 2 weeks ago

People will cheer the low interest rate on their plummeting dollar value debt.

[–] Wispy2891@lemmy.world 1 points 2 weeks ago

Realize what? They'll say "fucking Biden, look at the state he left the country"

[–] neon_nova@lemmy.dbzer0.com 6 points 2 weeks ago

I live and work in a third world country. The currency here is weak against the dollar.

I do something think if the dollar crashed to the value it is in this country, I could pretty quickly pay off my families debts.

[–] roserose56@lemmy.ca 5 points 2 weeks ago

We already knew this, it's just matter of time.

[–] Revan343@lemmy.ca 5 points 2 weeks ago (4 children)

So...what do I buy puts on, to profit from this?

[–] funkforager@sh.itjust.works 3 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)
[–] DragonTypeWyvern@midwest.social 3 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

If you assume the entire stock market won't collapse. Half those companies aren't just inbred, they're codependent.

[–] Vanilla_PuddinFudge 2 points 2 weeks ago

Finally, some good news.

[–] ikidd@lemmy.world 2 points 2 weeks ago
[–] Ushmel@lemmy.world 2 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

"you want to short the federal government??? yeah we will take your money high five bro"

I think I've seen this movie.

You can buy inverse ETFs on bond market benchmarks. Unlike stocks though, the interest rate will tick up as bond demand (price) goes down, so the dips tend get muted as people gobble up anything over 5%

[–] burgerpocalyse@lemmy.world 1 points 2 weeks ago

1000 units of gold-pressed latinum

[–] SlartyBartFast@sh.itjust.works 3 points 2 weeks ago
[–] altphoto@lemmy.today 2 points 2 weeks ago

Well what's another lifetime if I get to pay enough of the house that my grandchildren can probably rent it for a lower monthly installment?

[–] SkunkWorkz@lemmy.world 1 points 2 weeks ago

How can it collapse the currency market? If one currency goes down in value the other goes up. Currency traders earn money either way they thrive on volatility.

He probably means the USD is going to drop and that will have severe consequences for the world economy. Since the US is a net importer. And most debt in the world is held in USD.

load more comments
view more: next ›