this post was submitted on 20 Sep 2023
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Baldur's Gate 3

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Baldur’s Gate 3 is a story-rich, party-based RPG set in the universe of Dungeons & Dragons, where your choices shape a tale of fellowship and betrayal, survival and sacrifice, and the lure of absolute power. (Website)

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Microsoft completely misjudged Baldur’s Gate 3 (www.polygon.com)
submitted 2 years ago by stopthatgirl7@kbin.social to c/baldurs_gate_3@lemmy.world
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Not a great look for Microsoft

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[–] HarkMahlberg@kbin.social 42 points 2 years ago (4 children)

“This is really a disaster situation for us given all we’ve invested in content across studios at our GP [Game Pass] content fund,” ... “We set a very high bar in 2021 on quality and pacing of content which was awesome to see,” he continued. “But to come off of that year with no big exclusives launching in 2022 is a portfolio planning miss that we can’t afford. If we need to delay launches (understanding there is a financial impact of that) to create more regular beats for us we need to do that. We have to all understand that the situation we are in now is a failure of our planning and production execution.”

My corporate speak is a little rusty, but if I understand the gravity of this statement correctly, is Spencer implying that GamePass is a house of cards that is only supported by the regular timing of new exclusive releases? It seems like that's a very risky business model then, and the consequences of GamePass folding would be consumers lose access to a truly massive number of games. This statement would basically make me lose a ton of confidence in the service, and I'd be looking to take my library (and money) elsewhere.

[–] spark947@lemm.ee 20 points 2 years ago (1 children)

The way I would perceive it is that mega-hjts in games are very profitable. A hit sells like 200k-300k at launch. But from time to time, a game hits the cultural zeitgeist and can 3x that. Those are you're BOTWs and such.

Platforms bank on having those because they are the big bang for their buck. In Microsoft case, an exclusive like that would move a lot of gp subs. I think that is the idea behind making starfield elusive, and then getting rid of the reduced price trial.

So when people are busy playing BG3, and then ign gives starfield a 7, and people decide its not worth dropping everything to go and play, it can really mess up a company's tire venue projections. Poor babies.

[–] SkyezOpen@lemmy.world 25 points 2 years ago

Guess the execs will have to cut back on the avocado toast.

[–] Klear@lemmy.world 10 points 2 years ago

take my library

You won't be taking anything anywhere if it goes tits up. It's their library.

[–] schmidtster@lemmy.world 8 points 2 years ago

It’s no secret that they are “hemorrhaging” money into gamepass just to be competitive. Would have a tough time finding the article, but there was something about them doing it JUST to keep some games out of the hands of other companies.

[–] rambaroo@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

How does this guy still have a job? Xbox has just been failure after failure.

[–] jet@hackertalks.com 30 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Honestly. This is a fine look for Microsoft. This is inside baseball executives trying to make sure the lineup on their game pass platform is appealing to people throughout the year. They're going to make bad predictions, but they're not doing it out of spite or evilness, they're just trying to maintain engagement in their game pass.

You would see similar discussions behind any other subscription platform. Did they underestimate it sure, but their job is to predict, so they're going to have to make good estimates and bad estimates.

[–] schmidtster@lemmy.world 8 points 2 years ago (1 children)

When you constantly miss though…

Where’s the good estimates? That’s the concerns people are having.

[–] Gyrolemmy@lemmy.world 4 points 2 years ago

The issue isn't THAT you missed. It's WHY you missed.

[–] Viking_Hippie@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago (1 children)

That's kinda like saying an engineer builds good bridges and bad bridges.

Ok, not that, but it's still their job to get almost all predictions at least CLOSE to right, so this is the definition of failing to do their job.

[–] MrCharles@lemmy.world 8 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Maybe, but most prediction based jobs have a middling success rate.Missing this big is always significant, but not catastrophic in this case.

[–] schmidtster@lemmy.world 4 points 2 years ago

When you have a history of failing and than you go and call Crosby second rate. It is actually quite catastrophic, it proves (again and again) that they have zero idea of the market they are in.

[–] Viking_Hippie@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I guarantee that at least some of them would have been fired if they made the same magnitude mistake in the opposite direction, though, and unless they have specific safeguards to avoid overestimate that aren't in place for underestimates, they WILL.

[–] jet@hackertalks.com 1 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

I don't think they did a bad job at all. They wanted to have a lineup to keep their users engaged. If they underestimate one, even significantly, they still succeed because they insured they had a lineup to keep their users engaged. They're hedging their bets.

Not to mention lorian, themselves underestimated the success, because overestimating causes more problems. And lorien and Microsoft negotiator rate for game pass.

[–] Viking_Hippie@lemmy.world 0 points 2 years ago (1 children)

You wouldn't happen to work in PR, would you? Because the way you keep insisting on focusing on something completely irrelevant to the criticism while still briefly acknowledging the criticism as an aside is actually quite dextrous and would probably work on a lot of people 😄

[–] jet@hackertalks.com 2 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

Nope. I'm working against the thesis of "not a great look for Microsoft" the op posted.

I'm very much glad bg3 is a huge success, we need more RPGs with depth and impact. I'm just not convinced in this circumstance MS is the boogyman.

[–] schmidtster@lemmy.world 3 points 2 years ago

Not in this specific situation, but their repeated failures should maybe tell them that their view on the market is incorrect.

History keeps repeating itself with them.

[–] Viking_Hippie@lemmy.world 20 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Archive.ph version in case you don't want to accept all cookies or send a carrier pigeon to headquarters to be exempt in the future.

[–] panja@lemmy.world 4 points 2 years ago (1 children)

This just gives me endless recaptcha

[–] Viking_Hippie@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago (2 children)

Weird. I've been using archive.ph for years and never had that problem. You sure it's not your browser or an extension?

Either way, here's a 12 foot ladder version that might work better for you

[–] HarkMahlberg@kbin.social 4 points 2 years ago (1 children)

For me it has something to do with ublock or pihole. If I disable both the captcha works again but I haven't pinned down the real problem.

[–] Viking_Hippie@lemmy.world 1 points 2 years ago

I use ublock origin on both my phone and desktop, so I think it's probably pihole. Would also explain why lemmy, which has several times more users with piholes by volume than anywhere else I've ever been, is the only place I've ever come across anyone having trouble with the site.

Still anecdotal, I know, but sounds likely to me 🤷

[–] kux@kbin.social 4 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

apparently there is a problem reaching archive.ph with cloudflare dns: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37077049

[–] li10@feddit.uk 16 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Even looking past the “unprecedented “ success of BG3, they were ridiculously underestimating it…

Goes to show how out of touch they are with what people want. They’re so focused on their known market that they completely ignore everyone else.

[–] Endorkend@kbin.social 9 points 2 years ago (1 children)

You do have to look at it in some context tho.

As seen in many of the documentation, these documents were from 2020 and even earlier.

At that point, BG was set to be a decent game, but still being done by a small studio and far from finished. For a normal company, the development and production time for the game was stretched so long it was doubtful that it would see completion and if it did, it would probably be rushed.

Instead Larian got enough backing to finish it.

Besides, traditionally, that style of RPG is a niche market that does have a rather well defined target audience, but not an especially WIDE audience.

The fact it broke out of its niche and got such wide appeal is in fact not something you would've guessed.

But even with the needed context, the wording they used was rather harsh, to say the least.

[–] stankmut@lemmy.world 14 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

This article and a lot of people reading it seem to have interpreted second run as second rate. This is estimating they'll need to offer $5m to get Baldurs Gate 3 on game pass after it leaves PC/Stadia exclusivity.

[–] average650@lemmy.world 12 points 2 years ago

It looks like the list was created based on name recognition.

[–] TWeaK@lemm.ee 7 points 2 years ago

Xbox dubbed Larian’s hit a ‘second-run Stadia PC RPG’ before its release

Man, ~~journalists~~ blog authors are really milking this whole "people in the industry feel threatened by BG3 and have commented publcily" thing just a tad dry now. At least the Twitter comments from devs on their personal accounts on its release were noteworthy in their timing, before the reflection of public perception had hit for many people, but this is just non-news dug up after the fact.

[–] Viking_Hippie@lemmy.world 6 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Ubisoft’s Just Dance

Will it be assassins dancing? If so, I'll consider it.

[–] Badgernomics@lemmy.world 3 points 2 years ago

Shimmy shimmy, coco pop, shimmy shimmy, STAB!

[–] vzq@lemmy.blahaj.zone 4 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

As much as I hate to say if, trying to low ball Larian is probably a good business decision. They are studio with niche appeal (out at least they were, before bg3 released) and I have no trouble believing MS would have the upper hand in negotiations.

Making an agreement to release a game on game pass basically means betting against the developers on their own success. The game might be huge. It might be a flop. Whatever happens, the money from MS it’s going in the back.

[–] stopthatgirl7@kbin.social 3 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I don’t think they were lowballing; I think they genuinely complete underestimated Baldur’s Gate 3. Their internal documents comparing games coming out classified it as a “second-run Stasis PC RPG.”

[–] vzq@lemmy.blahaj.zone 4 points 2 years ago (1 children)

I can’t really parse the “second run”. Was it supposed to be Stadia exclusive for a while and is the list never updated? Do they mean the early access release?

Either way, Microsoft never really “got” gaming in any meaningful sense. That’s why buying Nintendo and/or valve would have made sense, those two really understand their respective markets.

[–] stankmut@lemmy.world 10 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

I believe Second run in this context refers to getting the title on game pass after it leaves Stadia exclusivity. This document is pretty old, probably originally written while Stadia was still around.

[–] guylacaptivite@sh.itjust.works 2 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

They are just proving they don't understand what makes games sell at all then. Anybody who had experienced the early access (they had like 3 years to do so) knew this was a special game. Anybody who tried the DOS series also knew and are probably here because of those anyway. The success of this game was obvious way before it came out. This is just another proof that the people running the business have no idea of what they are doing. They just cannot judge of stuff before they have numbers and it's why we should get rid of these leeches. So again, the only surprised people are the idiots that don't understand shit about modern games.

[–] Pratai@lemmy.ca -2 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Microsoft needs to exit the gaming business. They’re a comedic disaster! Seriously….. has the Xbox ever been profitable, or are they still losing money on it?

[–] Why9@lemmy.world 11 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (1 children)

Why is this kind of sentiment the norm? Someone makes a miss, they should exit out of the market entirely? It makes no sense. If they mess up, they need to re-evaluate their strategies and come back stronger. The people who win in the end are the consumers.

The competition Vs Playstation alone is worth staying in the game. Forcing playstation to develop consoles and actually fight for sales each generation. sure, they're winning handily, but it only requires a sleeper hit to turn the tides. Starfield is already selling a bunch of Xbox consoles and gamepass subs.

I can imagine in the future, TESVI, Oblivion remake etc will continue to push sales. If Microsoft did get exclusivity for Baldurs Gate, we'd be looking at a very successful period for Microsoft. Once the stars align, they'll make a killing.

I'll die on this hill every time: the Xbox One (the original pitch, with Kinect and steaming, voice commands etc) was over a decade ahead of its time. If they'd pitched the same pitch in 2023 it would have made sense. I don't think PlayStation should sit too comfortably!

[–] Pratai@lemmy.ca -1 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (2 children)

It’s pretty sad that your argument is that Microsoft would be winning if they got exclusive rights to Baldur’s Gate and shut everyone else out.

When this happens- EVERYONE loses.

And for the record, my sentiment is the norm because it adheres to reality. Get your head out of your ass an pay attention to how Microsoft it fucking things up for everyone AND themselves.

[–] ryven@lemmy.dbzer0.com 5 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Am I having a complete reading comprehension failure? "Microsoft would be winning if they got exclusive rights to Baldur’s Gate" isn't in the comment you replied to at all.

[–] Pratai@lemmy.ca 3 points 2 years ago (1 children)

They said:

If Microsoft did get exclusivity gotBaldurs Gate, we'd be looking at a very successful period for Microsoft. Once the stars align, they'll make a killing.

[–] ryven@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Oh right, I skimmed over that, but it seems like an aside to their main argument that there needs to be at least one major competitor to Sony in order to prevent a monopoly.

[–] Pratai@lemmy.ca 3 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

Competition is fine- but let the tides raise or lower all ships. Exclusivity is bullshit. And they know it.

[–] Why9@lemmy.world 2 points 2 years ago (1 children)

Firstly, my entire argument does not hinge on that one point. I'm simply commenting on Microsoft misjudging that potential value of Baldurs Gate and not making it an exclusive. If they judged it better, they'd be in a much better position financially and competitively.

Second, Playstation absolutely relies on exclusivity in order to keep their console competitive. Whenever there's discussion about making games exclusive to XBox, people throw a fit, but it somehow doesn't apply to PlayStation?

Get your head out of your ass an pay attention to how Microsoft it fucking things up for everyone AND themselves.

Despite the fact that you're a child and unable to converse without resorting to insults, I'll bite. Microsoft is a business. They're losing the console war every generation, and the reason is exclusive games. They're doing something about it.

With titles like Bloodborne, Horizon, God of War, ratchet and clank, the last of us, Uncharted, shadow of the Colossus, Persona 5, Spiderman etc. Whether they're timed exclusives or not, they are console sellers for PlayStation. I can't think off the top of my head, any exclusives for Microsoft besides Gears of War back in the day that I cared about. They messed up Halo infinite, Forza is meh, and everything else is also old. They need exclusives to balance the board and to stay competitive.

Microsoft also offers all their 'exclusives' on PC and GamePass, so even though they're exclusive, they're still far more available than PlayStation games, which typically come out on PC a few days after, and sometimes as Terrible ports.

[–] Pratai@lemmy.ca 0 points 2 years ago

Lol…. K